Eddie Howe

[Sibierski]

Not doing dishonesty to Howe on Miley, but he got his break because we literally had ZERO CMs. So it was either change formation or play someone who’s never a CM in there. Couldn’t even use Hall in there because he was in same boat and had only made his first start against Bournemouth in same game before coming back out.

 

Think if Gordon, Barnes, Osula, Wissa, Elanga, Murphy and even Ramsey got injured, we’d see Neave get his chance. 

[AyeDubbleYoo]

Think Miley was on a development path though, he might have got a chance earlier obviously.

 

 

[Coffee_Johnny]

45 minutes ago, The College Dropout said:

We’ve had a relatively easy run the last 12 games. 
 

We’ll almost certainly get less points over the next 12 just due tougher fixtures.  
 

In the last 12 we played 3 promoted teams - 2 at home. Wolves, Palace, Chelsea and Spurs at home.  
 

In the next 12 we face Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Chelsea, Spurs away.  Last year we got 3 points from

those? The season we finished 4th - 5? 

Who we play, when and where, obviously makes a difference, but the previous 12 were only slightly ‘easier’. I use a formula (preseason) which takes account of the position opponents finished last season, and whether home or away, to see where we should expect to pick up points if we are on track for a particular league position. According to this we should have picked up 21 points from our previous 12  games (we did indeed pick up 21 points).
For the coming 12 games the formula predicts 19 points. So not that much different over 12 games.
Personally, as the cup games fall away I am expecting (hoping…) that we overperform on that. We still have a distance to make up due to earlier season results, e.g. predicted to get 17 points from first 11 games, only managed 12. That said much tighter around European places this year than usual, so perhaps we won’t need the average (or better) points total for a 6th or better finish. 

[AyeDubbleYoo]

11 minutes ago, Coffee_Johnny said:

Who we play, when and where, obviously makes a difference, but the previous 12 were only slightly ‘easier’. I use a formula (preseason) which takes account of the position opponents finished last season, and whether home or away, to see where we should expect to pick up points if we are on track for a particular league position. According to this we should have picked up 21 points from our previous 12  games (we did indeed pick up 21 points).
For the coming 12 games the formula predicts 19 points. So not that much different over 12 games.
Personally, as the cup games fall away I am expecting (hoping…) that we overperform on that. We still have a distance to make up due to earlier season results, e.g. predicted to get 17 points from first 11 games, only managed 12. That said much tighter around European places this year than usual, so perhaps we won’t need the average (or better) points total for a 6th or better finish. 

 

Top post.

[The College Dropout]

12 minutes ago, Coffee_Johnny said:

Who we play, when and where, obviously makes a difference, but the previous 12 were only slightly ‘easier’. I use a formula (preseason) which takes account of the position opponents finished last season, and whether home or away, to see where we should expect to pick up points if we are on track for a particular league position. According to this we should have picked up 21 points from our previous 12  games (we did indeed pick up 21 points).
For the coming 12 games the formula predicts 19 points. So not that much different over 12 games.
Personally, as the cup games fall away I am expecting (hoping…) that we overperform on that. We still have a distance to make up due to earlier season results, e.g. predicted to get 17 points from first 11 games, only managed 12. That said much tighter around European places this year than usual, so perhaps we won’t need the average (or better) points total for a 6th or better finish. 

Have you looked into bookies odds?

 

I think they would have better formulas than using last years finishing position. While they are still shit this season I think Spurs (A) is tougher from the bookies than their 15th place finish last season. And obviously home and away matters and is overly simplified based on league position.

 

Also 12 is a big pool size. When talking form it's usually the last 5-6 in the league, not 12.

[TRon]

26 minutes ago, Sibierski said:

Not doing dishonesty to Howe on Miley, but he got his break because we literally had ZERO CMs. So it was either change formation or play someone who’s never a CM in there. Couldn’t even use Hall in there because he was in same boat and had only made his first start against Bournemouth in same game before coming back out.

 

Think if Gordon, Barnes, Osula, Wissa, Elanga, Murphy and even Ramsey got injured, we’d see Neave get his chance. 

 

 

Think this is true. We were down to the bare bones when Miley got games two season back as a 17 year old, and he didn't feature much once Tonali was back in the side. 

 

I think all managers want experience in their side, that was the case for Amorin and Maresca I would imagine. Club priorities are sometimes different than managers, because managers are looking to immediate results, clubs are looking at long term financial health. 

[The College Dropout]

Aye Miley has continually performed well when brought in during injury crisis - not only getting him minutes in those moments but pushing him up the pecking order in general. He's now 4th choice CM. At the start of the season, he was behind a switch to a back 5 

[Coffee_Johnny]

12 minutes ago, The College Dropout said:

Have you looked into bookies odds?

 

I think they would have better formulas than using last years finishing position. While they are still shit this season I think Spurs (A) is tougher from the bookies than their 15th place finish last season. And obviously home and away matters and is overly simplified based on league position.

 

Also 12 is a big pool size. When talking form it's usually the last 5-6 in the league, not 12.

No not looked at bookies. Just a preseason predictive model/equation I do each year. It’s not usually far away. But is totally based on averages of previous PL seasons. I think this season is going to be an unusual one; at least in terms of 3rd to 6th. 

[The College Dropout]

1 minute ago, Coffee_Johnny said:

No not looked at bookies. Just a preseason predictive model/equation I do each year. It’s not usually far away. But is totally based on averages of previous PL seasons. I think this season is going to be an unusual one; at least in terms of 3rd to 6th. 

I enjoy reading your posts - thanks for the effort. My takes aren't meant to discredit your data or opinions btw - just constructive feedback

[Minhosa]

9 hours ago, Ilovetoon8788 said:

One of my biggest gripe with Howe is his reluctant to play youth. Atleast give them some minutes. 

 

Leo shahar, neave, Alex Murphy. All of them been on the bench all the time but never gets a chance. 

 

And I don't belive that local lads are all not good enough. If we don't give a chance we'd never know. 

Just on subject of youth players. The club has significantly developed their approach since the takeover with regards to youth prospects.

 

The current Under 15 side is viewed as the second best in the country by those in the club (behind only Chelsea in their view....) and has a number of England youth internationals in it. Some of them are playing a year up for England, so clearly we're attracting players with massively high ceilings now.

 

These kids are always approached by the best academies in the country. They've largely got their pick. Newcastle's sales pitch to them is smaller youth squads, full of quality and a clear route to the first team (as we're now seeing with Leo Shahar who was signed as a kid and also with Sam Alabi signed from Oldham who's recently got some time on the bench).

 

Now, whilst this doesn't help us now, I'd hazard a guess that half our bench will be made up of our own development players within 3 years.

 

These kids are bought for relatively big dollar too btw, Lucas Flack (GK) signed from Leyton Orient for £350k (he was 13 at the time). Thomas Bonas (MID) from Carlisle for £100k, Les Yeutembip (CB) from Charlton for over £600k and Josh Kenchington (CB) from Barnsley for £400k with adds on taking it up to seven figures if he reaches his potential.

 

All of the above (aside from Les) are Under 15's. There's plenty of others signed for decent fee's too.

 

In the older age groups, there's high hopes for Michael Mills and Sam Alabi, both of whom train with the first team every day at 16/17 years old.

 

This is a major development from the Ashley era where we'd never have spent these fees nor attracted kids from outside the area on any scale.

 

I'd imagine, based on this investment, the intention is both help Howe (or any future manager) with either useful options for the first team squad or PSR fodder.

[Monters]

2 hours ago, The College Dropout said:

We did have a good fixture run. Where draws were bad results.

----

It's unlikely to be a problem next season and if the draw was different it may be a stupid thing to say. But I do think when we are in the CL (or Europe in general) we should dial-in one of the domestic cups with kids. We'll likely not have a squad capable of challenging for League Cup, FA Cup, CL & League for some years but Howe genuinely tries to win them all

I understand your reasoning and genuinely like most of your posts despite some occasional frustration but every fibre of me as a supporter would hate this!!

 

Never liked it when Arsenal & Man U used to do it so it’s definitely a me quirk

[The College Dropout]

7 minutes ago, Minhosa said:

Just on subject of youth players. The club has significantly developed their approach since the takeover with regards to youth prospects.

 

The current Under 15 side is viewed as the second best in the country by those in the club (behind only Chelsea in their view....) and has a number of England youth internationals in it. Some of them are playing a year up for England, so clearly we're attracting players with massively high ceilings now.

 

These kids are always approached by the best academies in the country. They've largely got their pick. Newcastle's sales pitch to them is smaller youth squads, full of quality and a clear route to the first team (as we're now seeing with Leo Shahar who was signed as a kid and also with Sam Alabi signed from Oldham who's recently got some time on the bench).

 

Now, whilst this doesn't help us now, I'd hazard a guess that half our bench will be made up of our own development players within 3 years.

 

These kids are bought for relatively big dollar too btw, Lucas Flack (GK) signed from Leyton Orient for £350k (he was 13 at the time). Thomas Bonas (MID) from Carlisle for £100k, Les Yeutembip (CB) from Charlton for over £600k and Josh Kenchington (CB) from Barnsley for £400k with adds on taking it up to seven figures if he reaches his potential.

 

All of the above (aside from Les) are Under 15's. There's plenty of others signed for decent fee's too.

 

In the older age groups, there's high hopes for Michael Mills and Sam Alabi, both of whom train with the first team every day at 16/17 years old.

 

This is a major development from the Ashley era where we'd never have spent these fees nor attracted kids from outside the area on any scale.

 

I'd imagine, based on this investment, the intention is both help Howe (or any future manager) with either useful options for the first team squad or PSR fodder.

Great and informative post.

 

Youth is one area we can just throw money at it and good pieces will stick. If only 10% make it, it will pay for the whole thing 20x

[The College Dropout]

1 minute ago, Monters said:

I understand your reasoning and genuinely like most of your posts despite some occasional frustration but every fibre of me as a supporter would hate this!!

 

Never liked it when Arsenal & Man U used to do it so it’s definitely a me quirk

I hear it. And I am the same.

 

We are getting to the stage as a club where cup runs mean nothing unless we get to Finals. And tbh I wouldn't be saying it if we had Southampton in the semi's. But taking a step back - we don't have the squad to compete on 4 fronts.

[Minhosa]

3 minutes ago, The College Dropout said:

Great and informative post.

 

Youth is one area we can just throw money at it and good pieces will stick. If only 10% make it, it will pay for the whole thing 20x

Absolutely and that appears to be the plan.

 

Flack, the kid from Leyton Orient, had offers from Man Utd and Liverpool but chose us despite having no links to the area.

 

On the other hand, Bonas (the kid from Carlisle) was part of a midfield duo for them where the other player had all but agreed to join us too but opted for Liverpool after a late move from them.

 

We're basically competing with the best academies in the country now rather than trying to focus only locally.

 

I can't recall his name but we've got a kid at under 15 level who is the starting CAM for England Under 16's. He's one of the best the Academy have had apparently but has a challenging background which, they fear, might hinder his progress...

 

This is where the new training ground, when it's developed, will be a game changer imho.

 

It's really not unthinkable to imagine the whole thing being paid for by the investment in/sale of youth player over the future years, if we get our recruitment and development right.

[The College Dropout]

12 minutes ago, Minhosa said:

Absolutely and that appears to be the plan.

 

Flack, the kid from Leyton Orient, had offers from Man Utd and Liverpool but chose us despite having no links to the area.

 

On the other hand, Bonas (the kid from Carlisle) was part of a midfield duo for them where the other player had all but agreed to join us too but opted for Liverpool after a late move from them.

 

We're basically competing with the best academies in the country now rather than trying to focus only locally.

 

I can't recall his name but we've got a kid at under 15 level who is the starting CAM for England Under 16's. He's one of the best the Academy have had apparently but has a challenging background which, they fear, might hinder his progress...

 

This is where the new training ground, when it's developed, will be a game changer imho.

 

It's really not unthinkable to imagine the whole thing being paid for by the investment in/sale of youth player over the future years, if we get our recruitment and development right.

Imagine our competition is Sunderland, Liverpool, Everton and Man U, Man City.

 

Demographic shifts - you still expect the midland/southern/London clubs to have an advantage. You'll get lads doing the Sterling to Liverpool, Sancho to City but most will stick to the London/south-east Academies.

[Minhosa]

16 minutes ago, The College Dropout said:

Imagine our competition is Sunderland, Liverpool, Everton and Man U, Man City.

 

Demographic shifts - you still expect the midland/southern/London clubs to have an advantage. You'll get lads doing the Sterling to Liverpool, Sancho to City but most will stick to the London/south-east Academies.

A good few of the latest signings are from London and the Midlands mind.

[TaylorJ_01]

1 hour ago, Minhosa said:

Just on subject of youth players. The club has significantly developed their approach since the takeover with regards to youth prospects.

 

The current Under 15 side is viewed as the second best in the country by those in the club (behind only Chelsea in their view....) and has a number of England youth internationals in it. Some of them are playing a year up for England, so clearly we're attracting players with massively high ceilings now.

 

These kids are always approached by the best academies in the country. They've largely got their pick. Newcastle's sales pitch to them is smaller youth squads, full of quality and a clear route to the first team (as we're now seeing with Leo Shahar who was signed as a kid and also with Sam Alabi signed from Oldham who's recently got some time on the bench).

 

Now, whilst this doesn't help us now, I'd hazard a guess that half our bench will be made up of our own development players within 3 years.

 

These kids are bought for relatively big dollar too btw, Lucas Flack (GK) signed from Leyton Orient for £350k (he was 13 at the time). Thomas Bonas (MID) from Carlisle for £100k, Les Yeutembip (CB) from Charlton for over £600k and Josh Kenchington (CB) from Barnsley for £400k with adds on taking it up to seven figures if he reaches his potential.

 

All of the above (aside from Les) are Under 15's. There's plenty of others signed for decent fee's too.

 

In the older age groups, there's high hopes for Michael Mills and Sam Alabi, both of whom train with the first team every day at 16/17 years old.

 

This is a major development from the Ashley era where we'd never have spent these fees nor attracted kids from outside the area on any scale.

 

I'd imagine, based on this investment, the intention is both help Howe (or any future manager) with either useful options for the first team squad or PSR fodder.

 

Thank you for this. I'm probably guilty of looking at the current U21's and how bad they are, but it's promising to know it should be improving over the coming years.

[TRon]

1 hour ago, Minhosa said:

Just on subject of youth players. The club has significantly developed their approach since the takeover with regards to youth prospects.

 

The current Under 15 side is viewed as the second best in the country by those in the club (behind only Chelsea in their view....) and has a number of England youth internationals in it. Some of them are playing a year up for England, so clearly we're attracting players with massively high ceilings now.

 

These kids are always approached by the best academies in the country. They've largely got their pick. Newcastle's sales pitch to them is smaller youth squads, full of quality and a clear route to the first team (as we're now seeing with Leo Shahar who was signed as a kid and also with Sam Alabi signed from Oldham who's recently got some time on the bench).

 

Now, whilst this doesn't help us now, I'd hazard a guess that half our bench will be made up of our own development players within 3 years.

 

These kids are bought for relatively big dollar too btw, Lucas Flack (GK) signed from Leyton Orient for £350k (he was 13 at the time). Thomas Bonas (MID) from Carlisle for £100k, Les Yeutembip (CB) from Charlton for over £600k and Josh Kenchington (CB) from Barnsley for £400k with adds on taking it up to seven figures if he reaches his potential.

 

All of the above (aside from Les) are Under 15's. There's plenty of others signed for decent fee's too.

 

In the older age groups, there's high hopes for Michael Mills and Sam Alabi, both of whom train with the first team every day at 16/17 years old.

 

This is a major development from the Ashley era where we'd never have spent these fees nor attracted kids from outside the area on any scale.

 

I'd imagine, based on this investment, the intention is both help Howe (or any future manager) with either useful options for the first team squad or PSR fodder.

 

 

Just more confirmation that we are doing things the right way even if progress is slow under PIF. That is how I have ultimately judged the ownership. Are we recruiting the best in class within the financial constraints imposed? In my opinion YES. 

[Monters]

1 hour ago, The College Dropout said:

I hear it. And I am the same.

 

We are getting to the stage as a club where cup runs mean nothing unless we get to Finals. And tbh I wouldn't be saying it if we had Southampton in the semi's. But taking a step back - we don't have the squad to compete on 4 fronts.

Fair! Although I would like to witness a couple more trophy parades before I become an even older man haha.

 

I’d probs feel a lot different if I thought we had decent shot at winning even the earlier rounds with a young team so glad read the great posts about the under 15s etc. Thanks for sharing, Minhosa et al. 

[Slim]

Seems be a load of people posting this again.  

 

What they fail to mention is this was spread around about 14 months ago and then we won a trophy.

 

 

 

Edited January 27 by Slim

[nufc123]

3 hours ago, Minhosa said:

Just on subject of youth players. The club has significantly developed their approach since the takeover with regards to youth prospects.

 

The current Under 15 side is viewed as the second best in the country by those in the club (behind only Chelsea in their view....) and has a number of England youth internationals in it. Some of them are playing a year up for England, so clearly we're attracting players with massively high ceilings now.

 

These kids are always approached by the best academies in the country. They've largely got their pick. Newcastle's sales pitch to them is smaller youth squads, full of quality and a clear route to the first team (as we're now seeing with Leo Shahar who was signed as a kid and also with Sam Alabi signed from Oldham who's recently got some time on the bench).

 

Now, whilst this doesn't help us now, I'd hazard a guess that half our bench will be made up of our own development players within 3 years.

 

These kids are bought for relatively big dollar too btw, Lucas Flack (GK) signed from Leyton Orient for £350k (he was 13 at the time). Thomas Bonas (MID) from Carlisle for £100k, Les Yeutembip (CB) from Charlton for over £600k and Josh Kenchington (CB) from Barnsley for £400k with adds on taking it up to seven figures if he reaches his potential.

 

All of the above (aside from Les) are Under 15's. There's plenty of others signed for decent fee's too.

 

In the older age groups, there's high hopes for Michael Mills and Sam Alabi, both of whom train with the first team every day at 16/17 years old.

 

This is a major development from the Ashley era where we'd never have spent these fees nor attracted kids from outside the area on any scale.

 

I'd imagine, based on this investment, the intention is both help Howe (or any future manager) with either useful options for the first team squad or PSR fodder.

Solid post 

[Sir Joel Inton]

I’ve always been of the belief he’s a fantastic man manager, team builder and coach but a very limited tactician.

 

We’ll have very good periods as a result but also lots of patchy periods where he has to use his man management skills to return out of form players to form.
 

If he was Leicester’s manager when Ranieri was, I think he wins the league with them too. Playing fast counter attacking football and creating/embracing fantastic team spirit and morale.

 

I think what we’re seeing now with Howe is what we’d have if we kept him for the next 10 years. A combination of good/excellent seasons and ‘par’ considering our wage budget/PSR position. I don’t think we’d ever go backwards too far with him but equally I do not think we’d ever get further progression than this.

 

I could live with that, but it doesn’t correlate with the message our owners give on their ambitions.

[Coffee_Johnny]

In Eddie's debut half-season here, he achieved  an unprecedented 27 more points than, in the main, the same team had managed in the first 19 games. If we manage to achieve our recent average points total for the second half of the season then we'll be there or thereabouts Europe wise.

 

 

An average 'Howe' second 19 games would give us 60 points; which in 2025-26 may give us a higher position than in 2023-24, given how tight things have been towards the top-end this time around. Still think we'd need to do better than this to feel confident of, say a 6th place finish. But probably only by a point or two.

 

So we have 7 points from the first four games (of 19). Continuing even this kind of recent form for the remaining 15 would give us 33 points from the 'second 19'. Basically, we're not too far away. Regardless of how things go in the next league game, we can still do this. 

 

 

[Dr.Spaceman]

15 minutes ago, Slim said:

Seems be a load of people posting this again.  

 

What they fail to mention is this was spread around about 14 months ago and then we won a trophy.

 

 

 

 

 

Funny looking end to this era...

 

[TaylorJ_01]

It's crazy only 1 team from 20 have won 3 in the last 5  don't remember a season like it.