Eddie Howe

[HawK]

Where I think Howe needs to do better is that if you're going to fighting on multiple fronts and want to stay at the sharp end of the table - you cannot be a rock/paper/scissors manager. I'll come onto this in a bit, but here's my rationale.

 

Howe has excelled in countering teams, drilling players and creating a system to counter the opponents in seasons past. Yet when we're competing in Europe - we struggle.

 

For me this comes to Howe's approach in terms of 'Intensity is our Identity'. The surface-level criticism of this is that you cannot really compete on all fronts trying to out-run and out-muscle teams playing a lot less games than you are. But what never really gets said, is that a lot of being able to counter specific teams, tactics and players, comes down to drill-work and rehearsing patterns of play on the training pitch. This time on the pitch is vastly reduced when you're having to rest so much because of the quantity of games. We simply don't have enough time to develop and rehearse these tactics and systems catered to every opponent we face. The man hours alone in the scouting, forming plans for games every 3 days is insurmountable. Howe just can't give any more - he's given his health and all he has, every hour of the day.

 

Being a rock/paper/scissors manager, by tailoring your approach to counter the opponent, works when you have time to plan and have fitness on your side. These are things that tend to work well against teams at the top and we historically under Howe in non-European seasons have had great results in the 'mini-league' of top 8 vs top 8 teams. In European seasons, this more than previously, we are going to pieces almost literally. We used to be a team that was so good at countering the opponent's plan A that we complained about how we'd get to their box with the ball and sit there and we didn't know what to do. It might have been a throw-away quote by Longy, but it was damning to me when he mentioned the main difference he saw at Leeds was that they train with the ball a lot more than at Newcastle.

 

But this kind of approach as a manager is unsustainable if you want to regularly compete and win. The identity has to be different, it has to be about focusing on what we're strong at - what we're good at, creating a Plan A that's effective and relies on quality players to swap in as necessary and impose ourselves for scoring goals and keeping a tight defence against teams of lesser quality, regardless of the specific opposition setups. 

 

Howe needs to create us a new identity in the summer. If it's more of the same, looking lost and beaten and the players not knowing what to do - it's time to move on.

[nufc4eva]

2 hours ago, Zero said:

Explain how the lose of Isak make us having the worst defence record in Europe?

 

you really can’t defend for Howe re our defence problems. We always able to score goals first. Just we will gift it back to our opponents. Surely this can’t be related to Isak right?

 

 

 

Strangely compared with same time last season we have only conceded 5 more goals which has felt like more. Have scored 16 goals less though.

 

We were 3rd in league. Season before that we had only conceded 26 as same stage. We leak more goals now and can't score as many. Do think Howe should take a more cautious approach given we can't score goals so keep it tight but we seem to press high.

 

 

Edited March 25 by nufc4eva

[Geordie Ahmed]

48 minutes ago, RUHRLYASLEEVESUP said:

I was responding to your inaccurate comment

 

Wasn't inaccurate, you just misunderstood the original comment you were responding to 

[Ben]

1 hour ago, Jaqen said:

 

Probably referencing this 

 

 

We've literally played double the amount of games than some of the teams on that list  That's without going into 4 of them were against City, Barca twice etc. Just another disingenuous argument. 

 

Who knew Tony Booth was better than Usyk ? 

[Wolfcastle]

32 minutes ago, DC Magpie said:

 

Gah. It's no wonder I'm in such a bad mood all the time. Yes - I get the "goals per game" is lower than some others, but good grief that's a lot of goals to concede.

 

Yeah its no good avoiding the obvious problem that is our defence. To the naked eye its looked frail and easy to score against all season relative to how we have to slog away for a goal

6 more games than Spurs doesn't automatically mean conceding 2 in every one.

Or twelve more goals in the two more games than Chelsea. They've played PSG and Arsenal twice in that time as well as Man City

Even taking Barcelona out the equation we'll have conceded the most. 

Elche and Bilbao have played them too and Wolfsburg lost 8-1 to Bayern.

 

 

Edited March 25 by Wolfcastle

[bobbydazzla]

23 minutes ago, Kid Icarus said:

That we've been extremely unlucky and/or we need a new 'keeper.

 

 

 

We’ve thrown away more points from decent positions than any other team in the league, we’ve failed to gain points from losing positions more than any other team in the league.

 

That all can’t be down to bad luck. So I’m sceptical about luck being the problem. 

 

Cogito ergo sum, if we had a decent keeper everything would be sweet like chocklit ? 

 

 

Edited March 25 by bobbydazzla

[nufc4eva]

7 minutes ago, nufc4eva said:

Strangely compared with same time last season we have only conceded 5 more goals which has felt like more. Have scored 16 goals less though.

 

We were 3rd in league. Season before that we had only conceded 26 as same stage. We leak more goals now and can't score as many. Do think Howe should take a more cautious approach given we can't score goals so keep it tight but we seem to press high.

 

 

 

Ignore that we had actually conceded 11 more at same stage last time were in champions league but had also scored 20 more goals.

[Kid Icarus]

5 minutes ago, bobbydazzla said:

We’ve thrown away more points from decent positions than any other team in the league, we’ve failed to gain points from losing positions more than any other team in the league.

 

That all can’t be down to bad luck.

 

So if we had a decent keeper everything would be sweet like chocklit ? 

You asked what xga is telling you that the stats you mentioned don't. That we're extremely unlucky and/or need a new 'keeper is what it's telling you that the other stats aren't. I'd personally say it's been a bit of the former (it has felt like nigh on every chance the opposition has had has flown in) but it's more that we need a new 'keeper.

 

And no, that wouldn't be everything solved, but it's one part of the puzzle.

 

 

Edited March 25 by Kid Icarus

[bobbydazzla]

3 minutes ago, nufc4eva said:

Ignore that we had actually conceded 11 more at same stage last time were in champions league but had also scored 20 more goals.

22/23 we only conceded 33 goals all season 

 

A little bit of jizz spurts out of the end of my wriggler whenever I think about that 

[bobbydazzla]

5 minutes ago, Kid Icarus said:

You asked what xga is telling you that the stats you mentioned don't. That we're extremely unlucky and/or need a new 'keeper is what it's telling you that the other stats aren't. I'd personally say it's been a bit of the former (it has felt like nigh on every chance the opposition has had has flown in) but it's more that we need a new 'keeper.

 

And no, that wouldn't be everything solved, but it's one part of the puzzle.

 

 

 

What does it actually mean though. 

 

I think the original post said we were 5th for xGC.

 

We’re 5th worst in the league for the number of decent scoring chances we give to the opposition ? 
 

Surely we can’t be 5th best, given how tragic our defensive record is. That would be mental. 
 

 

 

Edited March 25 by bobbydazzla

[nufc4eva]

Just now, bobbydazzla said:

22/23 we only conceded 33 goals all season 

 

A little bit of jizz spurts out of the end of my wriggler whenever I think about that 

🤣🤣 I think there's something in back to basics and be solid defending and structure before defenders man marking on halfway line. We are just a bit shit, hopefully it can be sorted. I have my concerns about how Howe has handled it, tactics etc but just want season over and see where it goes next year. Just hope we put in good performances for the fans for next 7 games, and should really be winning 4-5 of them. Be good if we got to celebrate battering a team at least once

[Kid Icarus]

Just now, bobbydazzla said:

What does it actually mean though. 

 

I think the original post said we were 5th for xGC.

 

We’re 5th worst in the league for the number of decent scoring chances we give to the opposition ? 
 

Ah I get what you're saying.

 

No, it's basically xG that the opposition has had against us in our matches, ours is the 5th best in the league - so we're quite good in comparison to the rest of the league at not giving away really clear cut chances often in matches.

 

The fact that in terms of actual goals conceded we're 14th and our actual position being 12th would suggest that the problem is with the opposition either being freakishly good at converting chances against us, and/or we have a goalkeeper problem.

[TK-421]

6 minutes ago, bobbydazzla said:

22/23 we only conceded 33 goals all season 

 

A little bit of jizz spurts out of the end of my wriggler whenever I think about that 

Think we benefitted that these 5 played most of the season, and obviously formed quite the understanding too.



Of course they were all a few years younger too, and Popes shoulder hadn't fell to bits then either.

[Wallsendmag]

2 hours ago, number9shirt said:

Absolutely has to go. This season has been a complete disaster not to mention the derby defeats, losing one is unacceptable losing both is sackable.

 

Tbh I would have (very reluctantly) taken 2 derby defeats square on the chin had we shown up and maybe not had the rub of the green but put in a battling performance. The nature of the defeats is what's done it for me. Going there in December and turning in that abomination of a performance was bad enough but to replicate it at our place against a team that had scored 8 away goals all season including 2 pens I think and couldn't even breach soon to be League 2 Port Vales defence, nah I'm not having that like.

 

If you can't rouse your players for this match, not once but twice, there's issues there.

[bobbydazzla]

7 minutes ago, nufc4eva said:

🤣🤣 I think there's something in back to basics and be solid defending and structure before defenders man marking on halfway line. We are just a bit shit, hopefully it can be sorted. I have my concerns about how Howe has handled it, tactics etc but just want season over and see where it goes next year. Just hope we put in good performances for the fans for next 7 games, and should really be winning 4-5 of them. Be good if we got to celebrate battering a team at least once

I fell in love with Eddie because of the defence he built in his first full season. I thought all the horrors of NUFC defences that I’ve had to endure in the last 40 years might have finally been banished to the annals of history. 
 

Whatever magic touch he had then, has long since gone. And I’m now watching the same Keystone Cops defending that I’ve known for all my adult life. I feel extremely let down at how he’s shattered my defensive dreams, not gonna lie. 

 

 

Edited March 25 by bobbydazzla

[nufc4eva]

Just now, bobbydazzla said:

I fell in love with Eddie because of the defence he built in his first full season. I thought all the horrors of NUFC defences that I’ve had to endure in the last 40 years might have been finally been banished to the annals of history. 
 

Whatever magic touch he had then, has long since gone. And I’m now watching the same Keystone Cops defending that I’ve known for all my adult life. I feel extremely let down at how he’s shattered my defensive dreams, not gonna lie. 

Yeah I loved how I wasn't as worried about us losing once 1 up never mind 2 and always in the game, now it feels inevitable and depends which Newcastle turn up. On Sunday after about 30 mins I feared the worst.

 

Getting back to those basics at very least turns losses into draws and at best gives us a foundation which seems to have eroded. Whether players aren't capable/games played/funny league this year or it's the tactics/formation/lack of in game management im not sure but has to change ideally before end of season and then try to strengthen.

 

Would love to be positive about Eddie being the man for the job but there's big concerns, the way we approach games, lack of confidence and identity is stark compared to previous seasons.

[bobbydazzla]

11 minutes ago, Kid Icarus said:

Ah I get what you're saying.

 

No, it's basically xG that the opposition has had against us in our matches, ours is the 5th best in the league - so we're quite good in comparison to the rest of the league at not giving away really clear cut chances often in matches.

 

The fact that in terms of actual goals conceded we're 14th and our actual position being 12th would suggest that the problem is with the opposition either being freakishly good at converting chances against us, and/or we have a goalkeeper problem.

That definitely right, the 5th best ?

 

I can’t believe that like. We’re constantly giving away chances this season, good ones too. 
 

Most of the time the opposition midfield just strolls towards our penalty area without any hassle and then picks their pass to an attacker who scores. We give away fuckloads of chances. 
 

You definitely sure it’s not a list with worst at the top and we’re 5th ? 

 

 

Edited March 25 by bobbydazzla

[nufc4eva]

5 minutes ago, bobbydazzla said:

That definitely right, the 5th best ?

 

I can’t believe that like. We’re constantly giving away chances this season, good ones too. 
 

Most of the time the opposition midfield just strolls towards our penalty area without any hassle and then picks their pass to an attacker who scores. We give away fuckloads of chances. 
 

You definitely sure it’s not a list with worst at the top and we’re 5th ? 

 

 

 

Do we give away that many shots in a game? Im not sure but just tends to be we switch off and opposition score rather than being peppered by shots most games I think. 

[Ellis H]

 

That's the most screenshotable table I can find. The Too Confusing; Didn't Understand is that our defensive numbers ON PAPER are top 5 in the league.

[Wolfcastle]

I can believe that. The weakness in defence for me is mostly from how easy we are to convert against. Not that we come under sustained pressure. Which is probably just as well.

[Kid Icarus]

2 minutes ago, bobbydazzla said:

That definitely right, the 5th best ?

 

I can’t believe that like. We’re constantly giving away chances this season, good ones too. 
 

Most of the time the opposition midfield just strolls towards our penalty area without any hassle and then picks their pass to an attacker who scores. We give away fuckloads of chances. 
 

You definitely sure it’s not a list with worst at the top and we’re 5th ? 

 

 

 

Nah, 5th best, see below. 

 

It doesn't tell the whole story (and tbh this is all really broad strokes anyway) though. Not only are we conceding more than the xg the opposition has against us (45 goals conceded to 39 xga) we're also not meeting our own xg (44 goals to nearly 48xg) 

 

The disparity with the xga is much bigger though,  We're 5th best for xga, 14th actual goals against, but for xg we're 8th best, also 8th for actual goals scored.

 

Basically priority 1 is a 'keeper, but I think we all knew that.

 

[Holmesy]

54 minutes ago, GideonShandy said:

This was less than a year ago. To be agitating that he now be sacked is fickle as fuck. 

I don't think  many are tbh. I think majority of disgruntled voices just want to see some signs that he's adapting and evolving, which he doesn't seem to be.
You can't keep playing the same record forever - eventually it wears out.
 

[Kid Icarus]

Also bonus stat, it should come as no surprise to anyone that Villa are massively overachieving on their xg and xga.

[Holmesy]

51 minutes ago, nufc4eva said:

Strangely compared with same time last season we have only conceded 5 more goals which has felt like more. Have scored 16 goals less though.

 

We were 3rd in league. Season before that we had only conceded 26 as same stage. We leak more goals now and can't score as many. Do think Howe should take a more cautious approach given we can't score goals so keep it tight but we seem to press high.

 

 

 

Yes, 100% that's what he should be doing but that's not our plan A, and we can't break from plan A.

[The Prophet]

4 minutes ago, Holmesy said:

Yes, 100% that's what he should be doing but that's not our plan A, and we can't break from plan A.

 

What's plan A?