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The Europeometer™ (2024/25) - NUFC Qualify for Conference League (at least)


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  On 13/05/2023 at 16:20, Pata said:

 

You can get over 2/1 on Liverpool winning their remaining games, if them dropping points isn't very likely you should make a hefty bet on it.

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I've put on 'worst case scenario' bets of late, involving Liverpool, Newcastle and Sunderland.

 

At least some money is finally coming in :lol:

 

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  On 13/05/2023 at 16:20, Froggy said:

 

STAT OF THE DAY:

 

Newcastle were awarded the same amount of penalties today as Man United have been awarded in their previous 37 league games. 

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Shame, would be nice to see Weghorst get a goal. Like when Chelsea let Makelele take one.

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  On 13/05/2023 at 16:22, Pata said:

 

It could be the case but IMO they were a different team to those big losses and that is down to Allardyce. They didn't create much either but were really solid defensively.

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Yeah see my opinion is it’s simply the change that makes the small difference. Gracia got a couple of good results for them iirc at the start. A team should just hire a dog for a couple of games and see if my theory is correct tbf 

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  On 13/05/2023 at 16:20, Froggy said:

 

STAT OF THE DAY:

 

Newcastle were awarded the same amount of penalties today as Man United have been awarded in their previous 37 league games. 

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Hard to get penalties when you are parked outside your own box for most of the game. :pow:

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  On 13/05/2023 at 16:17, madras said:

I'm not bed wetting but I can feel my bladder telling me I might not make it through the night without a run off at some point.

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It's not bedwetting. It's living in the real world and it's your experience as a fan. People are quoting statistical models and maths as if they've never seen the end of a football season, the build up of pressure at both ends of the table, the dark arts from certain managers and the shit they get away with, VAR, injuries. Its a multi billion dollar industry and everything is coming to a climax. The media work on narratives. Of course they say it's done and dusted and we have it nailed because that sets up a narrative for a miraculous comeback by the super league clubs. When Liverpool are 2/1 before our game, it's clear bookies see the situation.

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  On 13/05/2023 at 16:23, The College Dropout said:

 

  On 13/05/2023 at 16:04, Froggy said:

 

Wolves are shit though. :lol: we shouldn't be nervous heading towards the end of the game against Wolves. 

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Aye.  
 

A clean sheet was guaranteed. 

  On 13/05/2023 at 16:13, Gawalls said:

Very likely 5 - we’re 5 gd to the good

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That’s not a lot. Considering Liverpool need to win.

 

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Agreed but if we get the 5 points to take it to goal difference then there’s at least one win in there so that improves ours again. With Liverpool having only three games left - that’s not a lot of time to close it in

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  On 13/05/2023 at 16:19, Sempiternal said:

https://www.fourfourtwo.com/features/soccernomics-does-sacking-manager-actually-make-difference
 

it’s pretty much just a side benefit of the situation, nothing to do with the manager in charge and basically a reversion. My opinion has always been that the initial upswing is purely because of a change in circumstances. No matter who you choose. 

 

 

 

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So then no difference in outcome.

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  On 13/05/2023 at 16:25, Pata said:

 

Hard to get penalties when you are parked outside your own box for most of the game. :pow:

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We have a higher average possession than you, home and away. :pow:

 

  On 13/05/2023 at 16:24, Ronaldo said:


Shame, would be nice to see Weghorst get a goal. Like when Chelsea let Makelele take one.

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As if Weghorst would score a pen. :lol:

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  On 13/05/2023 at 16:30, Kid Icarus said:

So then no difference in outcome.

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Yeah there’s a few studies quoted elsewhere but i think the initial upswing is probably just a simple case of changing circumstances but overall yeah it doesn’t really exist. Like it says the sacking club is usually at their lowest point so you’d expect statistically they’d revert back to their average. 

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We’ll do this man and if we don’t it’s still been a great season. Just fucking enjoy it christ we’ve waited a long time to be competing against Liverpool and Man U again.


Today will be a point gained in the end analysis, think back to last week and Man U losing at West Ham.

 

We’ve taken 7 points from Everton, W Ham and Leeds away perspective needed.

 

Liverpool will drop a result, wouldn’t be surprised  if it was at Leicester to be honest and Man U look far from great.

 

It’ll be in the bag before Chelsea away.

 

 

 

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  On 13/05/2023 at 16:33, Sempiternal said:

Yeah there’s a few studies quoted elsewhere but i think the initial upswing is probably just a simple case of changing circumstances but overall yeah it doesn’t really exist. Like it says the sacking club is usually at their lowest point so you’d expect statistically they’d revert back to their average. 

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Sorry, what I mean is whether you attribute the upswing to a new manager or the old one leaving or whatever else, the fact that there is an upswing means it doesn't really matter all that much and any factor you choose to to attribute to the upswing isn't necessarily a myth, if that makes sense.

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  On 13/05/2023 at 16:32, Froggy said:

We have a higher average possession than you, home and away. :pow:

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Man Utd have fifth lowest average defensive line height, only above Wolves, Bournemouth, Everton and Nottingham. Newcastle's field tilt is 59.77%, Man Utd's 53.35%. :iamatwat:

 

 

Edited by Pata

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  On 13/05/2023 at 16:39, Pata said:

 

Man Utd have fifth lowest average defensive line height, only above Wolves, Bournemouth, Everton and Nottingham. Newcastle's field tilt is59.77%, Man Utd's 53.35%. :iamatwat:

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Be a couple more years before that's fixed too. 

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  On 13/05/2023 at 16:36, duo said:

Why are people writing off Brighton game? We've been toe to toe with all top 4 sides. We can definitely take Brighton. And we're at home to ?

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Risk of ASM starting, would make the Brighton game a complete write off.

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  On 13/05/2023 at 16:37, Kid Icarus said:

Sorry, what I mean is whether you attribute the upswing to a new manager or the old one leaving or whatever else, the fact that there is an upswing means it doesn't really matter all that much and any factor you choose to to attribute to the upswing isn't necessarily a myth, if that makes sense.

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Oh yeah I mean that basically they found next to no difference in the results compared to sacking/sticking with a manager over a longer period. But in terms of the very short upswing they make the case that it’s mainly just the manager is benefiting from the circumstances rather than orchestrating it. If that makes sense. My feeling has always been that it’s simply a case of any change is going to have an effect in the very short term. I think even Nathan Jones got a couple of results didn’t he 

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