The Europeometer™ (2024/25) - NUFC Qualify for Conference League (at least)

[Erikse]

12 hours ago, Displayname said:

Again you are cutting of the results at a point where its convenient for your argument, include the game before and you will get the same 50% win ratio im talking about.

Im not saying that City are in bad form or that I dont think that they will make it into top 5. Im saying that its far from certain that they will win the rest of their games other than Villa.  They havent shown that kind of dominance at all. Infact I think its more likely than not that they wont do it.

So if they were to draw against Villa it would leave us in a good position to finish ahead of them, which might be needed in certain scenarios. 

 

I still probably would prefer City to win though, as it would leave it much more up us getting a good result vs Chelsea. Which I think is very achievable. But a draw has its upsides aswell.

 

 

 

 

Ah yeah, and then you are cutting right before the 4-0 game vs us, so it will never be equal. The game before the Spurs game they lost to Liverpool. Bar Villa they are facing no opponent remotely close to what Liverpool were at that time, so including that game seemed pointless. Again, if I am uncluding that then I am cutting it right before their biggest win of the season. If I was only interested in pushing an agenda, I would have included both of those games, as the total of those 2 (considering oppoonents) only strengthens the idea that their form has been good. We can include the game before aswell where they got trashed by Arsenal, but then again, what they are facing are nothing like those teams anyways. If we look past the strongest opponents (since they are already done playing them), they are consistenly getting more than 2 pts per game against the type of teams they have left.

 

They might absolutely draw a game, but even a loss against Villa and a draw against mid (or low) table side puts them in a great position if they win the other 3. They will have 68 points if so. They are the favourites for 3rd place accoring to bookies, and to use one of your quotes, "it is for a reason".

 

 

Edited 2 hours ago by Erikse

[buzza]

our next three games are the most important; ipswich and brighton are down on form and should be winnable, chelsea at home is a "six-pointer", if we do them then I think we qualify. Mancity or villa are going to drop points this week so we must take advantage...

[The College Dropout]

1 minute ago, buzza said:

our next three games are the most important; ipswich and brighton are down on form and should be winnable, chelsea at home is a "six-pointer", if we do them then I think we qualify. Mancity or villa are going to drop points this week so we must take advantage...

Have to beat Ipswich & Chelsea. Any result against Brighton would be brill. Win all 3 and we are there I think.

[buzza]

Chelsea have a fairly difficult run in and should drop points given their recent form; Everton, Liverpool, Us, Manu, Forest

[midds]

I think we all agree that any path towards the CL starts with 3 points against both Ipswich and Chelsea. We'll probably need to beat Everton on the final day too. Sneaking a win against Brighton or a point away at Arsenal would be very very handy but not necessarily crucial. The 3 homes are the key

[Tisd09]

According to the predictor I did this morning three home wins would be enough. I had us finishing 5th but 4 points ahead of Villa. I did predict a point at Brighton. I think 3 wins and a draw is more than realistic for us. I may have been too harsh on Villa. Be class to go into the last game not needing anything.

 

 

Edited 3 hours ago by Tisd09

[Alberto2005]

I'd snap your hand off for 6 points against Ipswich and Chelsea with a loss at Brighton.

[Geogaddi]

Winning the three home games should be enough provided Villa don't win tonight . If they do win we are likely going to have to win the three home games and one of the away ones to finish above them . 

[Elma]

We'll know more after tonight. A Man City win and we would need ten points (3 wins, 1 draw), provided one win is against Chelsea to all but mathematically guarantee UCL. Chelsea would have to win their other four (I really don't see that with their fixtures) just to have a chance of beating us on GD, and with their GD, Villa would likely finish behind us even if they won all of their remaining games.

 

First things first - a professional performance against Ipswich then we go to Brighton with an eight day rest where a point would be fine, and a win would really take the pressure off.

[The College Dropout]

There is no way 69 points won't be enough. Even 68 should be fine. Villa's max total is 72.

[SiLvOR]

Brighton is definitely the one that scares me the most. Our record is absolutely honking against them. But, we could and should have beaten them twice this season already, so we can definitely do it.

[PauloGeordio]

24 minutes ago, SiLvOR said:

Brighton is definitely the one that scares me the most. Our record is absolutely honking against them. But, we could and should have beaten them twice this season already, so we can definitely do it.

Our record against Liverpool was pretty grim too! 

[Shadow Puppets]

Can't stress enough how important it is that City beat Villa tonight, like. A City win means that Villa basically CAN'T drop any more points in the last 4 games (the max they could hit would be 69). Chances are, they will drop a couple somewhere along the line (away at Bournemouth or Man Utd maybe?), meaning we can feasibly win 2, draw 2, lose 1, and that should be enough (even better if one of those wins or draws is against Chelsea).

But if Villa win tonight, they have multiple routes to Top 5, and we're going to have to win 3 and draw one at a minimum.

 

A draw wouldn't be the end of the world, but a City win would be huge for us.

[Elliottman]

Bookies have it as 

 

City 

Us/Forrest 

Chelsea 

Villa 

 

Villa are longest odds by a mile. Agree with Shadow, need a City win tonight to knock Villa out of the picture. 

[buzza]

Looking at villas fixtures after tonight, they are well capable of winning them all and getting 12 points.

That means we need to win four also. Our gd took a hit on Saturday

[buzza]

So we cannot rely on 3 wins and a draw

[Elliottman]

3 minutes ago, buzza said:

Looking at villas fixtures after tonight, they are well capable of winning them all and getting 12 points.

That means we need to win four also. Our gd took a hit on Saturday

 

Capable but doesnt mean they will. One game at a time. Need to beat Ipswich first. 

[Shearergol]

6 minutes ago, buzza said:

Looking at villas fixtures after tonight, they are well capable of winning them all and getting 12 points.

That means we need to win four also. Our gd took a hit on Saturday

 

You think Villa are going to get a +12 on us in 4 games? 3 of which you're predicting we win

[timeEd32]

Hope this goes better than the last time the whole forum was pulling for City.

[The College Dropout]

4 minutes ago, buzza said:

So we cannot rely on 3 wins and a draw

Yeh we can.

 

It's almost impossible that Villa & Forest get 70 points min, with Man City getting 69 points min. That's what needs to happen (assuming our GD is superior to Villa and Forest) for us to get 3 wins and a draw and not qualify for the CL.

 

As long as our GD is good, we only need 1 more point than Forest in the run-in and can afford 1 less point than Chelsea in the run-in. And that's assuming Villa continue to keep winning and City do enough.

 

It won't all amalgamate like that. 69 does it. 68 does too. 67 or less and it's shakey.

[SiLvOR]

39 minutes ago, PauloGeordio said:

Our record against Liverpool was pretty grim too! 

I fucking love your positivity. Exactly what I needed to hear

[PauloGeordio]

5 minutes ago, SiLvOR said:

I fucking love your positivity. Exactly what I needed to hear

I’ll believe until results say different. The lads will be gutted as much as us after Villa. I’d expect a response on Saturday. Desperate for them to get UCL over the line, but as Eddie would say. Just focussing on the next one. One game at a time HTL 

[timeEd32]

21 minutes ago, The College Dropout said:

Yeh we can.

 

It's almost impossible that Villa & Forest get 70 points min, with Man City getting 69 points min. That's what needs to happen (assuming our GD is superior to Villa and Forest) for us to get 3 wins and a draw and not qualify for the CL.

 

As long as our GD is good, we only need 1 more point than Forest in the run-in and can afford 1 less point than Chelsea in the run-in. And that's assuming Villa continue to keep winning and City do enough.

 

It won't all amalgamate like that. 69 does it. 68 does too. 67 or less and it's shakey.

 

You don't understand. We had a bad weekend, so now every result for the next month is going to go against us.

[TRon]

1 hour ago, The College Dropout said:

Have to beat Ipswich & Chelsea. Any result against Brighton would be brill. Win all 3 and we are there I think.

 

I don't see the Brighton or Chelsea games as any different, we could win either or lose either. Chelsea might be at home, but they still have a lot of good players who could hurt us. Brighton probably less so, but I could just as easily see us winning down there as well.

[The Prophet]

2 minutes ago, TRon said:

 

I don't see the Brighton or Chelsea games as any different, we could win either or lose either. Chelsea might be at home, but they still have a lot of good players who could hurt us. Brighton probably less so, but I could just as easily see us winning down there as well.

 

Chelsea is different because it's a six pointer.