The Europeometer™ (2024/25) - NUFC Qualify for Conference League (at least)

[Novocastrian]

When I use the predictor apps I normally try and balance the results out with something unexpected, beat Ipswich, beat Brighton, draw with Chelsea, lose to Arsenal, beat Everton = 69 points.

[AyeDubbleYoo]

Last 5 seasons have been 62, 66, 69, 67, 66 points to finish 5th. 
 

So quite variable but would be unlucky to need more than 66 points. So 2 more wins and a draw? Definitely 3 more wins should do it. 
 

Not sure if this season is likely to need an unusually high points total. 

 

 

Edited yesterday at 11:02 by AyeDubbleYoo

[ponsaelius]

11 minutes ago, AyeDubbleYoo said:

Last 5 seasons have been 62, 66, 69, 67, 66 points to finish 5th. 
 

So quite variable but would be unlucky to need more than 66 points. So 2 more wins and a draw? Definitely 3 more wins should do it. 
 

Not sure if this season is likely to need an unusually high points total. 

 

That's not a exactly right though, because 4/5 could have finished on lower totals and still got 5th. 60, 66, 59, 63, 64 was the actual required totals.

 

That puts the median required total a bit lower. 

 

However I'd say you are probably correct - I think the numbers of teams involved will push it to a higher overall total than usually expected. As is the fact that 5th is a CL place - this hasn't been the case previously.

 

 

Edited yesterday at 11:13 by ponsaelius

[Erikse]

30 minutes ago, ponsaelius said:

 

That's not a exactly right though, because 4/5 could have finished on lower totals and still got 5th. 60, 66, 59, 63, 64 was the actual required totals.

 

That puts the median required total a bit lower. 

 

However I'd say you are probably correct - I think the numbers of teams involved will push it to a higher overall total than usually expected. As is the fact that 5th is a CL place - this hasn't been the case previously.

 

 

 

 

It's quite the dilemma in terms of how you should look at it. In one way the teams finishing 5th could have done it with less points. Likewise any team below 5th would have needed to beat the points total (or equal + GD) of the 5th placed team. So, what is really the best way of looking at it? Both ways seems right and wrong at the same time.

 

 

Edited yesterday at 11:41 by Erikse

[ramirez]

Any previous points can only be used as a guide, the relative weakness of the top 2 compared to other years immediately makes the points available higher, for example when Man City and Liverpool both finished on over 90 it meant less pints dropped v chasing pack etc.

 

Fulham should win at Southampton Saturday in the conference battle which keeps them interested at Villa, could maybe do with Villa getting to the final to cement Europa and hope that takes their eyes of the prize.  

[Superior Acuña]

24 minutes ago, Erikse said:

 

It's quite the dilemma in terms of how you should look at it. In one way the teams finishing 5th could have done it with less points. Likewise any team below 5th would have needed to beat the points total of the 5th placed team. So, what is really the best way of looking at it? Both ways seems right and wrong at the same time.

 

 

 

 

Yeah thought this with relegation, not sure how it's normally done? E.g. Last season

 

Forest 32

----

Luton 26

 

So was 27 points enough to survive? Well yes if you were a team other than Luton, but not if you were Luton.

[SteV]

There’s also a point in the season where looking at what previous points totals becomes a little bit irrelevant.

 

It’s absolutely a good guide/target when looking earlier on in the season, but once you get to the last handful of games, it’s probably more relevant to look at rival teams and their fixtures and likely points totals.

[LFEE]

Am I right in thinking win our 3 home games and 1 draw out of two away games is required if everyone else max’s out where possible?

[Rich]

1 minute ago, LFEE said:

Am I right in thinking win our 3 home games and 1 draw out of two away games is required if everyone else max’s out where possible?

 

Aye, unless Villa dish out some absolute whallopings to overturn our goal difference advantage.

[LFEE]

7 minutes ago, Rich said:

 

Aye, unless Villa dish out some absolute whallopings to overturn our goal difference advantage.

Going to be a thrilling last 5 games 😆🤞🏻

[Cookie1892]

Beating Chelsea at home is an absolute must, we have to take points away from teams around us

 

Forest and Chelsea playing each other as well is a good thing

 

Having a clear winner last night in the city v villa game was a decent result tbh

[Superior Acuña]

Head to Head could end up deciding us v Chelsea's positions. 👀

[SteV]

So we beat Ipswich and Palace lose to Villa in the cup and we’d be one point from guaranteed Europa (at least)?

 

edit - although I suppose not quite as Villa could still collapse in the league and win the cup to get the Europa place that way.

 

 

Edited yesterday at 12:37 by SteV

[Tisd09]

If we beat Ipswich which of course we should then I wouldn't mind going full dark arts v Brighton and make sure we don't lose there, I'd snap your hands off for 4 points going into the Chelsea game. 

[Elma]

Taking the optimistic approach, but we could be sure with two games to go. If we beat Ipswich and Brighton while Chelsea lose to Liverpool, then Villa not winning at Bournemouth in the late game on Saturday 10 May would mean a victory over Chelsea on the Sunday lunchtime would seal it. Anyway, one game at a time.

[Erikse]

17 minutes ago, SteV said:

So we beat Ipswich and Palace lose to Villa in the cup and we’d be one point from guaranteed Europa (at least)?

 

edit - although I suppose not quite as Villa could still collapse in the league and win the cup to get the Europa place that way.

 

 

 

 

In that case we are guaranteed top 6, so your first question is correct.

 

Edit: Actually it's 3 points from guaranteed if Bournemouth wins. They would be 10 points behind us.

 

 

Edited yesterday at 12:52 by Erikse

[SteV]

3 minutes ago, Erikse said:

 

In that case we are getting top 6 anyways, so your first question is correct. Actually it's 3 points from guaranteed of Bournemouth wins. They would be 10 points behind us.

 

 

 

We’d have 62, so theoretically Fulham, Bournemouth or Brighton could surpass us (and Villa) by winning all their games.

 

Which then means us finishing 7th and Villa 8th, but they’d get the Europa place from winning the cup.

 

But probably that unlikely it’s not worth considering really.

[Erikse]

3 minutes ago, SteV said:

We’d have 62, so theoretically Fulham, Bournemouth or Brighton could surpass us (and Villa) by winning all their games.

 

Which then means us finishing 7th and Villa 8th, but they’d get the Europa place from winning the cup.

 

But probably that unlikely it’s not worth considering really.

 

Hence why 3 more points (if we beat Ipswich) would guarantee it. Not sure what you meant by "1 point from". If you meant to guarantee finishing above those 3 teams, then yes, but that would require 3 points (not 1) after Ipswich if they somehow keep winning.

 

 

Edited yesterday at 12:58 by Erikse

[SteV]

1 minute ago, Erikse said:

 

Hence why 3 points would guarantee it. Not sure what you meant by "1 point from". If you meant to stay ahead of those 3 teams, then yes, but that would require 3 points if Bou wins the next 2.

Yes, three rather than one if Bournemouth were to beat Man Utd.

[STM]

I think Villa are very good but I just dont see them bouncing through their last 4 games without dropping points.

 

Fulham H Win

Bournemouth A Draw

Spurs H Win

Man U A Draw

 

Something like that. The only guarantee is that they will stuff Spurs. Man U on the last day will be surprisingly tough IMO, especially if they are needing others to drop points. Their nerves will be jangling.

 

I see Chelsea losing at least two before the season is out. Forest away is a nightmare fixture since Forest will likely need something too.

 

I think 2 wins for us makes it very tough for the others and 3 makes it well...

[Erikse]

1 minute ago, SteV said:

Yes, three rather than one if Bournemouth were to beat Man Utd.

 

Yep. That's what I mean, Villa dropping below 7th doesn't matter if we are guaranteed to be above those 3 teams, so it's not a factor in that regard. I guess you figured it out by now though.

[timnufc22]

I simply cannot see Villa not winning their remaining games, bar Bournemouth away, which isn’t exactly a guaranteed loss either. 

[t00nt00n313]

3 minutes ago, timnufc22 said:

I simply cannot see Villa not winning their remaining games, bar Bournemouth away, which isn’t exactly a guaranteed loss either. 

 

Whilst I agree that villa are on form and definitely could win all their games, all it takes is one bad day at the office or a slip up for a draw. 

[TRC]

I've done a tonne of predictors with different results. My conclusion is that the Chelsea game is massive, and if we win we are in. Draw and its 50-50, lose and we are out (unless we beat Arsenal)

[Hanshithispantz]

Aye beat Chelsea at home and it's nailed on like. Thankfully it's a game we'll be 100% up for and will try to blow them way.