Ketsbaia Posted May 13, 2023 Share Posted May 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, Pata said: You can get over 2/1 on Liverpool winning their remaining games, if them dropping points isn't very likely you should make a hefty bet on it. I've put on 'worst case scenario' bets of late, involving Liverpool, Newcastle and Sunderland. At least some money is finally coming in Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ronaldo Posted May 13, 2023 Share Posted May 13, 2023 1 minute ago, Froggy said: STAT OF THE DAY: Newcastle were awarded the same amount of penalties today as Man United have been awarded in their previous 37 league games. Shame, would be nice to see Weghorst get a goal. Like when Chelsea let Makelele take one. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sempiternal Posted May 13, 2023 Share Posted May 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, Pata said: It could be the case but IMO they were a different team to those big losses and that is down to Allardyce. They didn't create much either but were really solid defensively. Yeah see my opinion is it’s simply the change that makes the small difference. Gracia got a couple of good results for them iirc at the start. A team should just hire a dog for a couple of games and see if my theory is correct tbf Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pata Posted May 13, 2023 Share Posted May 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, Froggy said: STAT OF THE DAY: Newcastle were awarded the same amount of penalties today as Man United have been awarded in their previous 37 league games. Hard to get penalties when you are parked outside your own box for most of the game. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohmelads Posted May 13, 2023 Share Posted May 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, madras said: I'm not bed wetting but I can feel my bladder telling me I might not make it through the night without a run off at some point. It's not bedwetting. It's living in the real world and it's your experience as a fan. People are quoting statistical models and maths as if they've never seen the end of a football season, the build up of pressure at both ends of the table, the dark arts from certain managers and the shit they get away with, VAR, injuries. Its a multi billion dollar industry and everything is coming to a climax. The media work on narratives. Of course they say it's done and dusted and we have it nailed because that sets up a narrative for a miraculous comeback by the super league clubs. When Liverpool are 2/1 before our game, it's clear bookies see the situation. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gawalls Posted May 13, 2023 Share Posted May 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, The College Dropout said: 21 minutes ago, Froggy said: Wolves are shit though. we shouldn't be nervous heading towards the end of the game against Wolves. Aye. A clean sheet was guaranteed. 12 minutes ago, Gawalls said: Very likely 5 - we’re 5 gd to the good That’s not a lot. Considering Liverpool need to win. Agreed but if we get the 5 points to take it to goal difference then there’s at least one win in there so that improves ours again. With Liverpool having only three games left - that’s not a lot of time to close it in Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The College Dropout Posted May 13, 2023 Share Posted May 13, 2023 Just now, Gawalls said: Agreed but if we get the 5 points to take it to goal difference then there’s at least one win in there so that improves ours again. With Liverpool having only three games left - that’s not a lot of time to close it in Man we just need to get our 6 points. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kid Icarus Posted May 13, 2023 Share Posted May 13, 2023 9 minutes ago, Sempiternal said: https://www.fourfourtwo.com/features/soccernomics-does-sacking-manager-actually-make-difference it’s pretty much just a side benefit of the situation, nothing to do with the manager in charge and basically a reversion. My opinion has always been that the initial upswing is purely because of a change in circumstances. No matter who you choose. So then no difference in outcome. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Froggy Posted May 13, 2023 Share Posted May 13, 2023 6 minutes ago, Pata said: Hard to get penalties when you are parked outside your own box for most of the game. We have a higher average possession than you, home and away. 7 minutes ago, Ronaldo said: Shame, would be nice to see Weghorst get a goal. Like when Chelsea let Makelele take one. As if Weghorst would score a pen. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sempiternal Posted May 13, 2023 Share Posted May 13, 2023 Just now, Kid Icarus said: So then no difference in outcome. Yeah there’s a few studies quoted elsewhere but i think the initial upswing is probably just a simple case of changing circumstances but overall yeah it doesn’t really exist. Like it says the sacking club is usually at their lowest point so you’d expect statistically they’d revert back to their average. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geordie Ahmed Posted May 13, 2023 Share Posted May 13, 2023 2 hours ago, STM said: That's not how "in our hands," works. I was responding to the post which said at worst it's in our hands on the last day, which might not be the case but SUPERTOON conceded he got it wrong Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gawalls Posted May 13, 2023 Share Posted May 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, The College Dropout said: Man we just need to get our 6 points. I’m just saying if we end with a win and 2 draws there’s still a very good chance. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitley mag Posted May 13, 2023 Share Posted May 13, 2023 We’ll do this man and if we don’t it’s still been a great season. Just fucking enjoy it christ we’ve waited a long time to be competing against Liverpool and Man U again. Today will be a point gained in the end analysis, think back to last week and Man U losing at West Ham. We’ve taken 7 points from Everton, W Ham and Leeds away perspective needed. Liverpool will drop a result, wouldn’t be surprised if it was at Leicester to be honest and Man U look far from great. It’ll be in the bag before Chelsea away. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
duo Posted May 13, 2023 Share Posted May 13, 2023 Why are people writing off Brighton game? We've been toe to toe with all top 4 sides. We can definitely take Brighton. And we're at home to ? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sempiternal Posted May 13, 2023 Share Posted May 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, Kid Icarus said: So then no difference in outcome. The big study was quoted in here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-23724517.amp Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kid Icarus Posted May 13, 2023 Share Posted May 13, 2023 Just now, Sempiternal said: Yeah there’s a few studies quoted elsewhere but i think the initial upswing is probably just a simple case of changing circumstances but overall yeah it doesn’t really exist. Like it says the sacking club is usually at their lowest point so you’d expect statistically they’d revert back to their average. Sorry, what I mean is whether you attribute the upswing to a new manager or the old one leaving or whatever else, the fact that there is an upswing means it doesn't really matter all that much and any factor you choose to to attribute to the upswing isn't necessarily a myth, if that makes sense. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gawalls Posted May 13, 2023 Share Posted May 13, 2023 I still blame Crystal Palace and them 2 points we were robbed of ? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pata Posted May 13, 2023 Share Posted May 13, 2023 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Froggy said: We have a higher average possession than you, home and away. Man Utd have fifth lowest average defensive line height, only above Wolves, Bournemouth, Everton and Nottingham. Newcastle's field tilt is 59.77%, Man Utd's 53.35%. Edited May 13, 2023 by Pata Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Froggy Posted May 13, 2023 Share Posted May 13, 2023 Just now, Pata said: Man Utd have fifth lowest average defensive line height, only above Wolves, Bournemouth, Everton and Nottingham. Newcastle's field tilt is59.77%, Man Utd's 53.35%. Be a couple more years before that's fixed too. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pata Posted May 13, 2023 Share Posted May 13, 2023 Just now, Froggy said: Be a couple more years before that's fixed too. You might get more penalties then. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pata Posted May 13, 2023 Share Posted May 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, duo said: Why are people writing off Brighton game? We've been toe to toe with all top 4 sides. We can definitely take Brighton. And we're at home to ? Risk of ASM starting, would make the Brighton game a complete write off. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sempiternal Posted May 13, 2023 Share Posted May 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, Kid Icarus said: Sorry, what I mean is whether you attribute the upswing to a new manager or the old one leaving or whatever else, the fact that there is an upswing means it doesn't really matter all that much and any factor you choose to to attribute to the upswing isn't necessarily a myth, if that makes sense. Oh yeah I mean that basically they found next to no difference in the results compared to sacking/sticking with a manager over a longer period. But in terms of the very short upswing they make the case that it’s mainly just the manager is benefiting from the circumstances rather than orchestrating it. If that makes sense. My feeling has always been that it’s simply a case of any change is going to have an effect in the very short term. I think even Nathan Jones got a couple of results didn’t he Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanj Posted May 13, 2023 Share Posted May 13, 2023 6 minutes ago, Gawalls said: I still blame Crystal Palace and them 2 points we were robbed of ? The VAR intervention on Isak’s second And the 47 mins of stoppage time at Anfield too. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gawalls Posted May 13, 2023 Share Posted May 13, 2023 Just now, Kanji said: The VAR intervention on Isak’s second And the 47 mins of stoppage time at Anfield too. Agreed but i I keep referring to palace game as FA agreed a mistake was made. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanj Posted May 13, 2023 Share Posted May 13, 2023 Just now, Gawalls said: Agreed but i I keep referring to palace game as FA agreed a mistake was made. but add the two of our comments up and we’d only need 2-3 points to seal it. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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