David Edgar Posted Sunday at 20:27 Share Posted Sunday at 20:27 (edited) https://iasip.app/8tWFQd9t8U2hK_Oq7HtLEw Edited Sunday at 20:32 by David Edgar Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaizero Posted Sunday at 20:27 Share Posted Sunday at 20:27 Bookies has us winning the next four with a probability of 1 in 7.40 Us winning the four matches before those were given a probability of 1 in 14.69 Us winning the past five was 1 in 18.37 Tell me how "winning nine in a row is an unlikely feat" means it's less likely we win our next four fixtures when all matches start 0-0? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kid Icarus Posted Sunday at 20:28 Share Posted Sunday at 20:28 1 minute ago, Unbelievable said: Look mate, you are just flat out wrong on the mathematics/probability side of things (to win 4 in a row given a chance to win a single one is exactly the same regardless of what has happened before). The footballing side of things is a completely different discussion obviously, but I would suggest that a team playing well is more likely to win four on the trot than a team doing badly, just like a good team is more likely to do it than a bad team, etc. Welcome to the discussion I was having. This is insufferable though tbh. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kid Icarus Posted Sunday at 20:29 Share Posted Sunday at 20:29 1 minute ago, Kaizero said: Bookies has us winning the next four with a probability of 1 in 7.40 Us winning the four matches before those were given a probability of 1 in 14.69 Us winning the past five was 1 in 18.37 Tell me how "winning nine in a row is an unlikely feat" means it's less likely we win our next four fixtures when all matches start 0-0? Jesus fucking Christ Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hanshithispantz Posted Sunday at 20:29 Share Posted Sunday at 20:29 3 minutes ago, Checko said: Not based on what I quoted tbh! "Depending on context or application it can be considered a valid common-sense observation or a misunderstanding of probability." KI's making a common sense observation, that we're not currently in the process of 'making history' to be among the few teams in history to win 9 off the belt and that will effect our next 4 games. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keegans Export Posted Sunday at 20:29 Share Posted Sunday at 20:29 Partly to change the subject but also because I'm interested... I see people quoting 90+% chance of England getting the extra CL spot, where is that from? If the PL gets the extra place, does the 5th place team need to go through qualifiers or do they go straight into the league stage? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Checko Posted Sunday at 20:29 Share Posted Sunday at 20:29 Winning 9 in a row is super unlikely. But we've already won 5 in a row. So to win 9 in a row we need to win 4 in a row. Which is not as unlikely. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlies Posted Sunday at 20:29 Share Posted Sunday at 20:29 Almost safe now. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pata Posted Sunday at 20:30 Share Posted Sunday at 20:30 (edited) I warned people about arguing with KI about probabilities. Edited Sunday at 20:31 by Pata Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Displayname Posted Sunday at 20:30 Share Posted Sunday at 20:30 Just now, Keegans Export said: Partly to change the subject but also because I'm interested... I see people quoting 90+% chance of England getting the extra CL spot, where is that from? If the PL gets the extra place, does the 5th place team need to go through qualifiers or do they go straight into the league stage? It comes from Spain already getting the spot twice, so it makes it very unlikely that they will get it again. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaizero Posted Sunday at 20:31 Share Posted Sunday at 20:31 Just now, Hanshithispantz said: "Depending on context or application it can be considered a valid common-sense observation or a misunderstanding of probability." KI's making a common sense observation, that we're not currently in the process of 'making history' to be among the few teams in history to win 9 off the belt and that will effect our next 4 games. That's not my perception of events, as I understand it he's arguing for it being less likely that we win our next four fixtures because we've won five in a row. Not that the concept of winning nine in a row is an unlikely feat in general, which is something I agree with. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holloway Posted Sunday at 20:33 Share Posted Sunday at 20:33 Just the fawa Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Checko Posted Sunday at 20:34 Share Posted Sunday at 20:34 Just now, Hanshithispantz said: "Depending on context or application it can be considered a valid common-sense observation or a misunderstanding of probability." KI's making a common sense observation, that we're not currently in the process of 'making history' to be among the few teams in history to win 9 off the belt and that will effect our next 4 games. TBH I don't remember reading what you've quoted, and if I did I certainly didn't understand it! What I was responding to was the point that because winning 9 in a row is so unlikely we are more likely to lose or draw in the next few games as it's super rare to win 9 in a row. That's not true, the odds of winning future games will still be the same (or even slightly higher due to being in good form). Hence the coin analogy. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cf Posted Sunday at 20:34 Share Posted Sunday at 20:34 (edited) If you flip a coin 9 times and get heads 9 times in a row you should bet on heads as there's a chance you have a biased coin. The parallels to football are clear. Edited Sunday at 20:34 by Cf Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Edgar Posted Sunday at 20:36 Share Posted Sunday at 20:36 (edited) The previous results have no direct bearing on the theoretical probability of winning the next match. But we have Sandro in the middle so from a practical perspective, we are 110% likely to win the next four. Edited Sunday at 20:38 by David Edgar Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Checko Posted Sunday at 20:37 Share Posted Sunday at 20:37 2 minutes ago, Cf said: If you flip a coin 9 times and get heads 9 times in a row you should bet on heads as there's a chance you have a biased coin. The parallels to football are clear. Basically our new stadium should have a casino. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaizero Posted Sunday at 20:37 Share Posted Sunday at 20:37 6 minutes ago, Pata said: I warned people about arguing with KI about probabilities. #trustthefinns Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaizero Posted Sunday at 20:37 Share Posted Sunday at 20:37 Just now, Checko said: Basically our new stadium should have a casino. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hanshithispantz Posted Sunday at 20:38 Share Posted Sunday at 20:38 Just now, Kaizero said: That's not my perception of events, as I understand it he's arguing for it being less likely that we win our next four fixtures because we've won five in a row. Not that the concept of winning nine in a row is an unlikely feat in general, which is something I agree with. It's all part of the package. Essentially "it's unlikely we are currently in the process of a record breaking (for us) run, because they are very rare". I'm not sure why we're flipping coins, that's a completely different conversation @Checko it's from Wiki, I just posted it here. Basically I don't think KI misunderstands how probabilities work, I just don't think he's using the same model you would to determine coinflips as you would to to determine football results. I think that lands under "common-sense observation". Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cf Posted Sunday at 20:39 Share Posted Sunday at 20:39 1 minute ago, Checko said: Basically our new stadium should have a casino. Could be a good PSR money laundering wheeze that. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaizero Posted Sunday at 20:40 Share Posted Sunday at 20:40 Just now, Hanshithispantz said: It's all part of the package. Essentially "it's unlikely we are currently in the process of a record breaking (for us) run, because they are very rare". I'm not sure why we're flipping coins, that's a completely different conversation @Checko it's from Wiki, I just posted it here. Basically I don't think KI misunderstands how probabilities work, I just don't think he's using the same model you would to determine coinflips as you would to to determine football results. I think that lands under "common-sense observation". The odds of winning these nine fixtures were 1 in 136 before the first one, I'd not have put money on those odds. The odds of us winning the next four fixtures are 1 in 7.40, I'd put money on those odds. tl;dr we won't win nine in a row because I'll now have money on us winning the next four Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Checko Posted Sunday at 20:40 Share Posted Sunday at 20:40 Just now, Cf said: Could be a good PSR money laundering wheeze that. Absolutely, fuck we might even get some money out of Mike Ashley finally! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kid Icarus Posted Sunday at 20:41 Share Posted Sunday at 20:41 2 minutes ago, Pata said: I warned people about arguing with KI about probabilities. Ironically you were arguing the toss the other way last time about the probability of Liverpool going on a run of wins in 22/23. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaizero Posted Sunday at 20:42 Share Posted Sunday at 20:42 Just now, Kid Icarus said: Ironically you were arguing the toss the other way last time about the probability of Liverpool going on a run of wins in 22/23. How good are your memories, people?! I can barely remember yesterday Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
STM Posted Sunday at 20:42 Share Posted Sunday at 20:42 If we can get 9 points from 12, that not only puts us in a great spot points wise but it also sees another calendar month disappearing to the chasing pack. The more we win, the more the sides below will start to lose belief. Needless to say, Chelsea and Forest at home should be treated like cup finals. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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