Financial Fair Play / Profit & Sustainability

[r0cafella]

Just now, et tu brute said:

Mind I will say, if the revenue increases that I expect in the summer don't happen, then I'll be banging the drum louder than you. We just have to wait and see.

Even if we do increase revenue we are still way behind, the kind of revenue increases we’ve seen are due to being low handing fruit. Sure we’ve left some money on the table with a lack of training ground sponsorship and training kit sponsor but with FMV rules this is also tricky. I imagine any deals for there would obviously lag the big 6’s deal. 
 

What are you expecting exactly?

[duo]

Man City looking to spend their new found wealth 

 

Quote

Manchester City are leading the race to sign Bayern Munich's 21-year-old Germany forward Jamal Musiala

 

I have to admit I don't get how City have such a large commercial income - outside of the UK I have never come across a City fan. According to Mark Goldbridge..

 

Man City have a global estimated fanbase of around 5 million where as Man Utd have a global estimated fanbase of around 500 million yet City (supposedly) have a larger commercial income.

 

 

Edited April 11 by duo

[r0cafella]

3 minutes ago, duo said:

Man City looking to spend their new found wealth 

 

 

I have to admit I don't get how City have such a large commercial income - outside of the UK I have never come across a City fan. 

 

 

 

They are basically the innovator of related party inflated deals. 
 

Also, a lot of sponsors they have were found to shell companies with no operations. 
 

FFP circumventing basically, but at the time they did it, everyone closed an eye. 

[Jonas]

Its such a swizz. I'd feel like a thief in the night if Hall or Shepherd pushed for this and got it when we were ensconched in the top 4 nevermind 6.

Good point made earlier about sponsorship, clubs cant sell potential anymore limiting what they may receieve, further entrenching things.

Protecting clubs from financial problems and ensuring no clubs can overhaul the now self appointed elites shouldn't be mutually exclusive.

It basically ends even the fantasy of a Jack Walker which has been the hope for almost any set of fans to improve their lot.

Brighton and Brentford are cited as models but the Brighton's and Brentford's of the past (Leicester, Norwich, Boro) didn't sustain their purple patch. Man City and Chelsea did.

 

 

Edited April 12 by Jonas

[et tu brute]

36 minutes ago, duo said:

Man City looking to spend their new found wealth 

 

 

I have to admit I don't get how City have such a large commercial income - outside of the UK I have never come across a City fan. According to Mark Goldbridge..

 

Man City have a global estimated fanbase of around 5 million where as Man Utd have a global estimated fanbase of around 500 million yet City (supposedly) have a larger commercial income.

 

 

 

All the above, stadium naming rights potentially and confirmation on the training ground and stadium plans. There was never any way we are going to catch the revenue streams of the big 6 in three year also.

[timeEd32]

The emotional seesawing in this thread as information / speculation is leaked in dribs and drabs is painful viewing. I strongly encourage everyone to wait for the details.

 

That said, it almost doesn't matter what the details are. We know there will be financial regulation of some kind and we know what UEFA's rules are, which we may have to follow next season and would certainly plan on having to follow in 2025/26. That means the ultimate aim off the pitch will not be changing -- we have to increase revenue.

 

The tweets from Kieran Maguire are obviously sobering, but it's also important to remember that they are a year behind and it's been a big year for us. It's hard to pinpoint what the exact number will be but our revenue for 2023/24 is going to grow from £250m all the way to somewhere in the ballpark of £335m, plus whatever we do before June 30. Roughly £28m of that is from player sales (and there may be more coming), but that number is relevant for the next three years if it's done like UEFA and that's important given the pathetic sales before (thanks Mike). In total that's a massive increase that will at least start to put some separation between us and those behind us. It also goes a long way to turning that -£27m into a positive number, though the cost side does not include Tonali, Barnes, Tino or Hall.

 

But not so fast. Some of that revenue will disappear in 2024/25 so we have a lot of work to do just to get back to something approaching £350m. Roughly £70m in the form of Champions League, player sales, and the Amazon doc go away (I'm going to assume our SJP events business stays roughly flat for now). Let's says Adidas is £40m, so now we need £30m more before we're growing again. That feels doable between sales and some new deals I'm expecting to see this summer, but how far can we go beyond that? The growth beyond ~£340m feels like the critical factor to me.

[duo]

9 hours ago, et tu brute said:

All the above, stadium naming rights potentially and confirmation on the training ground and stadium plans. There was never any way we are going to catch the revenue streams of the big 6 in three year also.

Never mind catching them we can't even keep up. The new rules just make them even richer.

[The Prophet]

2 minutes ago, duo said:

Never mind catching them we can't even keep up. The new rules just make them even richer.

 

We don't need to keep up with them to be competitive.

[Shearergol]

10 hours ago, timeEd32 said:

The emotional seesawing in this thread as information / speculation is leaked in dribs and drabs is painful viewing. I strongly encourage everyone to wait for the details.

 

That said, it almost doesn't matter what the details are. We know there will be financial regulation of some kind and we know what UEFA's rules are, which we may have to follow next season and would certainly plan on having to follow in 2025/26. That means the ultimate aim off the pitch will not be changing -- we have to increase revenue.

 

The tweets from Kieran Maguire are obviously sobering, but it's also important to remember that they are a year behind and it's been a big year for us. It's hard to pinpoint what the exact number will be but our revenue for 2023/24 is going to grow from £250m all the way to somewhere in the ballpark of £335m, plus whatever we do before June 30. Roughly £28m of that is from player sales (and there may be more coming), but that number is relevant for the next three years if it's done like UEFA and that's important given the pathetic sales before (thanks Mike). In total that's a massive increase that will at least start to put some separation between us and those behind us. It also goes a long way to turning that -£27m into a positive number, though the cost side does not include Tonali, Barnes, Tino or Hall.

 

But not so fast. Some of that revenue will disappear in 2024/25 so we have a lot of work to do just to get back to something approaching £350m. Roughly £70m in the form of Champions League, player sales, and the Amazon doc go away (I'm going to assume our SJP events business stays roughly flat for now). Let's says Adidas is £40m, so now we need £30m more before we're growing again. That feels doable between sales and some new deals I'm expecting to see this summer, but how far can we go beyond that? The growth beyond ~£340m feels like the critical factor to me.

 

Exciting times. I for one am looking forward to seeing what sales we can make to make up a deficit. Then we can spend a couple of years looking forward to finding out which other players we sell. I love football. 

 

Still, in 10 years time we might have some unknown academy players we can sell like the big boys do.

[Shearergol]

35 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

 

We don't need to keep up with them to be competitive.

 

You might need to explain this one. Are you saying that in order to compete we simply need to train harder and run faster?

[duo]

33 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

 

We don't need to keep up with them to be competitive.

Define competitive? If we're ever going to consistently challenge the big six we need to be able to go for the same calibre of players. But if the top clubs just continue to get richer they will always be a step ahead with regards to what they can spend.

[Shearergol]

Just now, duo said:

Define competitive? If we're ever going to consistently challenge the big six we need to be able to go for the same calibre of players. But if the top clubs just continue to get richer they will always be a step ahead with regards to what they can spend.

 

It's fine. City sign Musiala for £90m, we sign Lloyd Kelly on a free. We'll be reet.

[The Prophet]

8 minutes ago, duo said:

Define competitive? If we're ever going to consistently challenge the big six we need to be able to go for the same calibre of players. But if the top clubs just continue to get richer they will always be a step ahead with regards to what they can spend.

 

Our aim should be to hit an amount where we can sustain a transfer spend and wage bill that ensures we can compete for trophies and ensure European football. 

 

Once you hit a certain ceiling:

 

i) you can already do that and it comes down to other factors such as academy, talent ID, management, etc.  

ii) it becomes harder to identify commercial opportunities that you haven't already exploited.

[The College Dropout]

Rocafella is right.

 

Unless the club has some trick up their sleeve. A legal battle. Confident other rules an be changed.

 

Then yes - the ambition doesn't match the actions.

 

Time will tell.

 

I keep thinking Saudi create some kind of hack. A summer 4 team tournament with Real Madrid, Man City, Newcastle & Juventus. £70m for every participating club.. If Man City can collect that £70m why can't we?

 

But we haven't seemingly done any major hacks so far.

[The College Dropout]

14 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

 

Our aim should be to hit an amount where we can sustain a transfer spend and wage bill that ensures we can compete for trophies and ensure European football. 

 

Once you hit a certain ceiling:

 

i) you can already do that and it comes down to other factors such as academy, talent ID, management, etc.  

ii) it becomes harder to identify commercial opportunities that you haven't already exploited.

You can't do that consistently until your revenue is close to Spurs, Arsenal. At a minimum we'll need a new stadium and a productive youth academy to do that. Or gauge revenue other ways.

[Checko]

At the end of the day, FFP or whatever, the same underlying issue's gonna be present - teams with 500/600/700 million per year in revenue have a big advantage over teams with 150/200/250 million.

 

As much as we'd like to profit from an infinite money cheat, the fact most premier league teams need a benevolent owner to be dropping in 400 million a year every year just for parity with the big boys is pretty mad.

[The Prophet]

8 minutes ago, The College Dropout said:

You can't do that consistently until your revenue is close to Spurs, Arsenal. At a minimum we'll need a new stadium and a productive youth academy to do that. Or gauge revenue other ways.

 

My point was (probably not made very well) is that there's a certain bar where that is possible. It doesn't matter what other clubs are doing in that regard.

[The College Dropout]

37 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

 

My point was (probably not made very well) is that there's a certain bar where that is possible. It doesn't matter what other clubs are doing in that regard.

Isn't that bar being better at running a football club than half the elite clubs?

 

 

[huss9]

1 hour ago, The College Dropout said:

Rocafella is right.

 

Unless the club has some trick up their sleeve. A legal battle. Confident other rules an be changed.

 

Then yes - the ambition doesn't match the actions.

 

Time will tell.

 

I keep thinking Saudi create some kind of hack. A summer 4 team tournament with Real Madrid, Man City, Newcastle & Juventus. £70m for every participating club.. If Man City can collect that £70m why can't we?

 

But we haven't seemingly done any major hacks so far.

i might just be having a bad week in general but its affecting my views on the owners.

i even think the fact we're 2 years in and no further forward in terms of stadium plans is ridiculous.

its clearly a yes or a no on expansion... and if its a no its just a case of finding suitable land for a new stadium.

if its a priority, that is. 

just getting inceasingly suspicious about that the overall ambition for the club doesnt match the initial public statements.

 

otherwise i would have been happy with where we are.

 

 

[Turnbull2000]

19 minutes ago, huss9 said:

i might just be having a bad week in general but its affecting my views on the owners.

i even think the fact we're 2 years in and no further forward in terms of stadium plans is ridiculous.

its clearly a yes or a no on expansion... and if its a no its just a case of finding suitable land for a new stadium.

if its a priority, that is. 

just getting inceasingly suspicious about that the overall ambition for the club doesnt match the initial public statements.

 

otherwise i would have been happy with where we are.

 

 

 

I suppose in mitigation it took over a year to re-claim that Gallowgate plot, so a feasibility study on expansion maybe wasn't worth it till that point.

 

They've stated a feasibilities study is taking place have they not? That's probably a 6 month process to figure out practicalities for civils, structure and phasing. If we haven't heard anything by mid-Summer, I'll be concerned.

 

Lack of real development on training facilities on the other hand...

 

 

Edited April 12 by Turnbull2000

[huss9]

2 minutes ago, Turnbull2000 said:

 

I suppose in mitigation it took over a year to re-claim that Gallowgate plot, so a feasibility study on expansion maybe wasn't worth it till that point.

 

They've stated a feasibilities study is taking place have they not? Then it's probably a 6 month process to figure out practicalities for civils, structure and phasing. If we haven't heard anything by mid-Summer, I'll be concerned.

 

Lack of real development on training facilities on the other hand...

yes that one really is strange.

[Dr Jinx]

When they took over I think maybe the idea was to play nice and show we’re doing thing the right way.. and eventually all eyes won’t be on us. But I don’t think that day will ever come so they’re going to have to be a bit more brazen in the near future.

[huss9]

you would think the government and local council would be desperate to help bring any investment into the city.

and we're talking PIF here.

just thought if things needed getting done and the will was there, we would be further on.

[TomYam]

1 hour ago, huss9 said:

i might just be having a bad week in general but its affecting my views on the owners.

i even think the fact we're 2 years in and no further forward in terms of stadium plans is ridiculous.

its clearly a yes or a no on expansion... and if its a no its just a case of finding suitable land for a new stadium.

if its a priority, that is. 

just getting inceasingly suspicious about that the overall ambition for the club doesnt match the initial public statements.

 

otherwise i would have been happy with where we are.

 

 

I feel very similarly. After a first 18 months of almost wholly good news and activity, it feels like we've stood still this season. FFP/FPS and new lines of obstruction have played a huge part of course, but I'm really hoping that ducks are being lined up behind the scenes and then...bam...some really exciting and holistic plans are published. 

[stozo]

1 hour ago, Turnbull2000 said:

 

I suppose in mitigation it took over a year to re-claim that Gallowgate plot, so a feasibility study on expansion maybe wasn't worth it till that point.

 

They've stated a feasibilities study is taking place have they not? That's probably a 6 month process to figure out practicalities for civils, structure and phasing. If we haven't heard anything by mid-Summer, I'll be concerned.

 

Lack of real development on training facilities on the other hand...

 

 

 

I think even the training facilities is understandable. It's pretty obvious they are exploring options around SJP expansion, which given the restrictions we know about will probably require engineering solutions that are unorthodox at best and potentially even world-first. Until you've made a decision on SJP or new stadium, you can't really do the training ground - as I think it's a fair assumption that if we move to a new stadium it'll be to a City-style facility with stadium, academy stadium and training ground on a single site. Once the SJP decision is made, I think it's pretty certain we'll see everything fall into place quite quickly.