2023-24 Top Six Tracking

[Coffee_Johnny]

As the new season approaches it might be entertaining to predict where we think we will finish. I’ve included a tracker which takes into account the relative difficulty of games using the assumptions described below. 

 

 

 

Edited June 22, 2023 by Coffee_Johnny

[STM]

If we finish top 4, we've had a cracking season.

[Coffee_Johnny]

Assuming we are aiming for a top six season, then taking 6th as a minimum target, here is a way of gauging when we will, on average, pick-up the 61 points likely to be required (average for PL).

Categorising the teams (mainly on last season’s position) into four tiers and predicting we will pick-up (rounded-up) 9pts from T1 (all tiers ten games except 8 in Tier 1), 16 pts from Tier 2, 18pts from T3, and 19pts from T4 teams. 

Tier 1: 8 games 24 pts available, 9 predcited (1 win 2 draws 1 loss at H; 1 win 1 draw 2 losses Away = 5pts + 4 = 9pts). So, 1.25ppg at Home and 1.0ppg Away.

Man City

Arsenal

Man Utd

NUFC

Liverpool

Tier 2: 10 games 30 pts available, 16pts predicted (3 wins 1 draw 1 loss at Home; 2 wins, 0  draw, 3 losses Away =10 +6pts). So, 2.0ppg at Home  and 1.2 ppg Away

Brighton 

Aston Villa

Spurs

Brentford

Chelsea

Tier 3: 10 games 30 pts available, 18pts predicted (3 wins 1 draw 1 loss at H; 2 wins 2 draws 1 loss Away= 10+8pts). So, 2.0ppg at H ome and 1.6ppg Away.

Palace

Fulham

Wolves

West Ham

Bournemouh

Tier 4 10 games 30 pts available, 19pts predicted (3 wins and 2 draws at Home; 2 wins 2 draws 1 loss Away= 11+8pts) . So, 2.2ppg at H and 1.6ppg Away .

Forest

Everton

Burnley

Sheffield Utd

Luton 

Remember this is a prediction for 6th.  Taking into account the relative difficulty of games would mean the following pattern of picking up points at different stages of the season.  The average points per month for the top five is also shown, just using number of games per month. I'll correct this as the games inevitably get moved around. The points per match are just indicative, it’s the points per month which will show how on track we are. 

[SUPERTOON]

Feel like it’s been mentioned a lot but not sure if it’s been confirmed yet, but does top 5 get champions league ?

[Guest]

Would snap your hand off for 17th

[Coffee_Johnny]

[RodneyCisse]

With the extra games anything top 7 would be magic.

[Keegans Export]

Just now, SUPERTOON said:

Feel like it’s been mentioned a lot but not sure if it’s been confirmed yet, but does top 5 get champions league ?

It's not confirmed but you're right that next season is when UEFA have introduced two extra spots for the countries with the highest coefficients, England is usually one of them and that would mean the top five would get into the CL the following season.

[arnonel]

I think so much is going to depend how far we get in cups. 
Do well in any cup, and league form will suffer. 

[SteV]

2 minutes ago, Keegans Export said:

It's not confirmed but you're right that next season is when UEFA have introduced two extra spots for the countries with the highest coefficients, England is usually one of them and that would mean the top five would get into the CL the following season.

Yep, so we’ll probably have to start wanting the other English teams to perform well in Europe from now on.

 

*Unless of course we’re miles clear of fifth place, then we can mock them from a great height.

[Keegans Export]

1 minute ago, SteV said:

Yep, so we’ll probably have to start wanting the other English teams to perform well in Europe from now on.

 

*Unless of course we’re miles clear of fifth place, then we can mock them from a great height.

I don't actually know at what point we (and everyone else) will know about the 5th place thing, we obviously won't know when the season starts. 

[SteV]

3 minutes ago, Keegans Export said:

I don't actually know at what point we (and everyone else) will know about the 5th place thing, we obviously won't know when the season starts. 

Not until the latter stages of next season, possibly even not until right up until the CL final is played.

 

Could get a situation where the fifth place team is relying on whichever English team is in a European final, to win. Or something along those lines.

[Matt1892]

We need to break the ‘Big Six’ for a second consecutive season so we establish ourselves as one of the top teams.

[Mazzy]

So many variables this season. 

 

If we can replicate this season just gone, ie, Finish 4th or better and get into a cup final that will feel like a success to me. Winning that cup final would obviously make it something else entirely.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, STM said:

If we finish top 4, we've had a cracking season.

 

Top 4 would be a ridiculous season. If we're ahead of two from Man U, Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool it'd be even greater than last season. 

 

I'd be chuffed with top 6, finishing ahead of Spurs and clubs like Villa who might threaten. 

 

 

Edited June 22, 2023 by Optimistic Nut

[The Prophet]

To confirm is it top five go into the Champions League, then sixth and seventh will be Europa League and Conference?

[Coffee_Johnny]

38% predicting top four. Remaining 62% between 5th-7th. 
 

Wonder how/if this changes as transfer business is finalised? 

[alexf]

Yeah. Realistically, the chances of finishing ahead of Liverpool and Chelsea again with their squads is slim. If they get their shit together then both should be pushing hard for 2nd more likely with Arsenal.  

 

Unless Man U significantly strengthen this summer, I could see them being the weakest of the top 4 rivals if Rashford doesn't have a similar impressive season. 

 

Then we have Spurs, Villa and maybe Brighton as most likely rivals for 5th and 6th. I'd say Villa could possibly be the biggest threat there. 

 

So really depends on what we do in the summer. With the extra games and unlikelyhood of as many teams under performing, I'd say top 6 would be a good season. 

[Barnes23]

We should be aiming for another top four (or CL) finish + progress on and off the pitch. Given the open ambition of our owners I'm not sure why anyone would want to look at it any differently to that. 

 

As always there will be a lot of factors to consider when evaluating the context of those goals over the course of the season, though. 

 

 

Edited June 22, 2023 by Barnes23

[gazza ladra]

Really depends on the window. 

 

I'd imagine that Arsenal, Man Utd, and Liverpool will buy and be much better. Chelsea and Villa as well, probably. Doesn't look good for Spurs IMO.  Who knows if Brighton will continue to turn up gems. 

 

We'll be OK provided we have decent depth in the backline. If Schar, or Botman go down injured we're in trouble. 

[The Fountain]

Went for 5th, European football will be a test.

[mikejaxer]

Went for 6th.

 

I think last season teams didn't expect us to be so good. The real test this season will be if we can manage to break down teams that will now start park the bus against us and hope to knick a goal on the counter. On top of all the European games we'll be playing.

 

I'd say top 6 should be the aim. 7th would be okay.

[kocunar]

Top 5 should be aim, top 7 acceptable

[Ginola]

Quadruple