The College Dropout

I think 68 points secures 5th. Villa would need to win 6 games and draw 2 going undefeated. Or win 7 out of 8. In addition to at least 3 massive cup games. Probably 4 all in. They have to be too good imo. We need to win 6 out of 9. So much more attainable. Even with our injuries and weaker squad. My assumption is that a CL campaign will allow us to build a squad closer to the level of Villa in terms of depth. They’ve got a proper CL level squad now too the end of the season. But still.. it’s a massive ask for them. They are relying on us, City and Chelsea being a bit shit.

Opportunity is massive. What it means for our finances directly and indirectly.

Villa starting to get players back from injury and look to have a very strong squad now. They’ve got options everywhere. But they will be distracted imo. we need them to drop points against Forest and us and we should be ok. At the same time we should get 9 points from the next 3. It’s our time. 7 minimum.

Forest. Easily. Every team directly below us needs to lose every week they can. Villa’s hardest games are us (H), Forest (H), City (A).

This run of games has been massive for him.

They are also 7th tbf like we did.

I think they have too many games to finish top 5. But the winter window has given them a chance. Probably want Forest to beat them at the weekend.

Any one with a river ?

Is Connor Gallagher press resistant? I think Miley's profile is closer to Bruno's than Joelinton. That's who I think he can step in for. But Bruno is a minutes and fitness monster (touch wood!) so Miley will only get those minutes in full rotation or when we are several goals up. Joelinton & Tonali seem to need resting more, Joelinton misses games through suspensions too - I wouldn't want a Miley type to step in for him. Or Angel Gomes.

Don Flo runs Madrid well though. When he goes they need to build him a statue.

He's no worse than Rashford upfront. Think we need physical monsters that can play like Tonali. When Joelinton doesn't play we suddenly can't compete physically. Joelinton will pick up bans and injuries it seems. We miss his height too. When Pep replaced Fernandinho - he knew he needed a tall physical player. Howe's team needs a number of physical CMs. Miley's not. Bruno's not. We can't add a third imo.

Good players aye but the whole starting XI and regular subs weren't strong. Krul Colo Cabaye Tiote Ba were excellent throughout the season. Cisse, HBA, Ameobi came up big when needed too. Jonas put in a shift. But it wasn't a strong team and it never got close to repeating. No.

They sold a lot last summer. Got a lot of money for some French lads. They won't risk a points deduction.

Yeh I think so. I kinda saw what we would look like when Dubs was in goal with Botman - Schar in defence.. a lot more footballing ability. Add that level of football with a pacey CB and a better GK. Then a RW that can contribute to build up. Those 3 and I think we are close to Arsenal level. Add another CM and we can play at full pelt for 90+ minutes. Obviously semi joking about the CL. But we are maybe 2 away from being a very very serious team.

Brentford’s model is seemingly to run a cheap profitable(?) PL club. They don’t sell big or sell often.

Us finishing 5th with Williamson, Santon, Raylor, Jonas, Shola, Leon Beast, Guthrie etc. A few quality players and a shit hot streak from Cisse got us there... and obviously a great team spirit and morale.

Barcelona cooking their numbers it seems. They’ve managed to defend it through audits but it’s too coincidental to be genuine. truth be told - I want us to push the envelope. We are like 4 purples away from winning the champions league.

Forest won’t be able to spend big imo. But also probably not forced to sell.

Well Man City decided to get a striker who will primarily play with Haaland in Jan. ditto Villa with Watkins and Rashford. Thats the move. We already have that with Gordon and strongest bench player is Gordon’s primary positions backup. We could do it with a Mbeumo type player too. The alternatives are have a young player who might develop i to the main man shortly or be sold. Osula is possibly that. Wouldn’t mind getting another cheap one. At Delap’s price either he or Isak will need to be sold after 1 year. Which is a fine strategy imo. Not every move needs to be long term. If I’m Delap I’m not risking it though. Or an aging striker like Wilson that we already have. I do think if you have a Grade A striker. It’s the managers responsibility (and the players) to ensure they can play 85% of minutes he needs too. All the top players have always done that. Your best player is going to play a lot of minutes. ISAK’s physicality has improved this season, it needs to go another level again. You can’t burn the clutch out of a top talent like Isak. Central midfielders yeah you might have to push to their limits physically. Thats why you need top quality on the bench.

Neither Jesus or Richarlison actually play. Both were signed for big fees with the intention to start. Same with Nunez. I would be happy for us to sign a striker that would largely play RW like Liverpools strikers can play LW or in Jota’s case RW too. I would not be happy to have a £80m backup striker like Liverpool currently have though.

Truthfully all of these clubs have a striker quality issue. None of them have an A grade striker backed up by C+ striker. Liverpool have several B options at 9. All but 1 of which can play at LW too. Most of the time 2 of their strikers will play a the same time. Richarlison is shot. Jesus is shot. Havertz and Solanke is £120m worth of striker. They are not backups. Us, City and Villa have A grade forwards. Their backups play most of their minutes with the main striker.

I said it when he left. Chris Wood is as good a backup striker a non-elite team could have for a few seasons. There's not many rattling about.

He's going to be 19/20. It's not crazy that he might not be ready to play 45 games for a team that's playing in the CL and wants to qualify for it again. Happy for Howe to decide if he's ready or not. But at the moment he's only trusted to see games out - that's not enough. A 4th choice CB and CM are not "backup" players IMO. The drop off needs to be minimal. City, Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Villa, Spurs - all have far more depth at CM than we do. IMO a top striker is going to be one of the least rotated players in a team. That's why most teams don't have a top backup player. Man U are shit and have shit options. They signed Zirkzee because their main man striker is a kid (and shit). Villa have 1 striker. Their now backup striker is primarily a LW who can play uptop (worse than Gordon IMO) if needed. There's a reason Villa's strikers were - a main one and a kid. As soon as the kid got good they sold him. They didn't replace him with another striker. They signed a first-choice LW who can fill in uptop if needed. That's how top teams are building their squads. Chelsea have 1 striker. Nkunku has played the majority of his games at AM/10 or LW. He's not a 9 or a backup striker. He's a AM or LW. Chelsea have horrible squad building so their squad doesn't make sense. Man City have 1 striker. Marmoush still gets minutes when Haaland starts at 10 or LW. Prior to Marmoush they had Alvarez who also regularly started with Haaland at 10 or wide. Jesus and Richarlison are physically shot which is why their clubs have effectively replaced them. Although Havertz was signed to play as an 8 in the same team as Jesus. None of these clubs (except Man U) have a striker that will sit on the bench while the other striker plays. Marmoush, Rashford and even Havertz were signed to play alongside the main striker - not to sit on the bench. Delap would join and sit on the bench. If we sign a backup striker, their primary position will be RW IMO. And even then Howe would line-up Barnes Gordon New RW. If we sign Delap - it would be with a view to sell him or Isak in 12-months. Delap would start for Man U and most clubs.

People under-rate Nuno as a manager. He's an excellent manager for an underdog type team. Forest will forever be a underdog type team. He's a little similar to Benitez in that way. Nuno got top 4 with Valencia in a difficult era for them - the last time they qualified for the CL I believe. The last time they were good iirc. Two 7th placed finishes with Wolves. This will be his 5th top 7 finish as a manager in a top level league. I think they will struggle with CL next season and expect a drop off. It happened with us and it's happening to Villa so obviously it will happen to an inferior technical side with less resources to a greater scale. But if they stick with Nuno long-term, he could establish Forest around the European places. He's shown that is his level.

Apart from Liverpool, no other top club has a proper "backup striker" that can't play anywhere else. Even Liverpool all can play multiple positions with the possible exception of Nunez. It's not good value for money to have a singular backup striker unless the player is accepted to be substandard. They won't get enough guaranteed minutes. Forest have a backup striker. He doesn't get minutes. City's backup striker gets most of his minutes off the wings. The 4th choice CM gets a lot more minutes than the backup striker. I do think Howe will have to change his tactics if we get into the CL. Isak pressing the way he does, he'll have to get subbed regularly at the hour.