http://timesonline.typepad.com/thegame/2009/09/george-caulkinwhen-you-say-its-gonna-happen-now-well-when-exactly-do-you-meanthe-smiths-how-soon-is-nowno-prizes-for.html
September 08, 2009
Frenzy removed from Newcastle as takeover talks continue
George Caulkin
When you say it's gonna happen now, Well, when exactly do you mean?
The Smiths, How Soon Is Now.
No prizes for guessing the subject of this column, then (although any excuse to quote The Smiths). Having not written about Newcastle United’s ownership - past, present or future - for all of 23 minutes, the cravings are kicking in, a longing, an itch, a need which requires satiating. It's like the most pernicious sort of bad habit, hateful and all-devouring.
The good news is that Newcastle no longer feels like a club in stasis. It is, of course. Utterly. It just no longer feels like it. And that's because in spite of the unpromising circumstances, the team have gelled and won matches, Chris Hughton has bought Mike Ashley time and the transfer window, such a source of disillusion and uncertainly, has now closed until January.
Those three things have removed the frenzy, the restlessness that engulfed St James' Park over the summer. It does not take an overactive imagination to ponder how poisonous the atmosphere might have been if Newcastle had lost a few games, if Hughton had proved incapable of steadying a listing ship or if players were still leeching out of the club.
But - and this is a deeply relative concept; it is Newcastle we’re discussing - a form of stability has settled on Gallowgate. All the old questions are still pertinent, from who is taking the strategic, long-term decisions at the club, to all the issues connected to coaching, management, scouting and buying, but at least the first-team has allowed everybody else to take a deep breath.
See I’ve already waited too long, And all my hope is gone.
They’re still talking, still bartering, still bashing away. Ashley and Barry Moat, the man who would be king at Newcastle, remain in takeover negotiations. Moat, the Tyneside entrepreneur, is the preferred bidder of Seymour Pierce, the investment bank which Ashley hired to sell the club and, to all intents and purposes, is the only likely new owner, in the short-term at least.
There have been a myriad of other names and nationalities. Some have been attention-seekers, pure and simple. Others may have had sound intentions, but none aside from Moat have been able to provide evidence to Seymour Pierce that they have the wherewithal to buy Newcastle and even for him, it has been a struggle. He has raised money and a substantial amount of it, but will it be enough?
Ashley, who has consistently demanded £100m for a club on which he has spent in excess of £250m, has always had his doubts. But, to repeat, the two men are talking and, with the gentle encouragement of Keith Harris, Seymour Pierce’s executive chairman, they are often doing so directly and without antagonism. Still at issue are the price and the mechanism for how any deal will be structured.
Theoretically, it could all be over very quickly, provided Ashley agrees to the figures in front of him or if Moat can make up the shortfall in his financial plans between Newcastle’s previous £40m overdraft and the £10m which Barclays are content to allow a Coca Cola Championship club. As things stand, neither of those things have quite happened.
But what, after all this time, can they still be talking about? It is a reasonable question, but these things, by their very nature, can be horrendously complicated, unless you’re dealing with individuals so rich (as at Chelsea, Manchester City and, lest we forget, Newcastle when Ashley cornered Freddy Shepherd, the former chairman), that you can subvert the normal order of things.
The specifics are opaque, but here are a few examples. As is now common City practise, Moat is understood to be borrowing money from Ashley himself to fund the prospective takeover. How much and under what conditions? How much is Ashley willing to take as a down-payment and how much will be deferred? Would there be a bonus if Newcastle are promoted in May?
You shut your mouth, How can you say, I go about things the wrong way? I am human and I need to be loved, Just like everybody else does.
Ashley is pivotal. He is also a maverick and a gambler. At any stage, there is always the possibility that he will change his mind, click his fingers and remove Newcastle from the market. He has done it before. And with every victory his stripped-down side amass, there must be internal calculations going on: if the club returns immediately to the Barclays Premier League, its paper value will effectively double.
And yet people close to him insist that the sportswear retailer has gone too far beyond the point of no return to willingly come back. All his nominal deadlines about proof of funds have elapsed without firm resolution and having failed to announce his decision to carry on in situ after the transfer window shut, there seems little point doing so now. He wants out.
What has helped matters is that over the course of the last four months, Newcastle’s wage bill has been more than halved and money has been brought in through player sales. For their three home league games to date, they have an enjoyed an average attendance of almost 40,000, which is significantly above Moat’s business model. Simultaneously, this makes things more relaxed and, for Moat, more viable.
For now, they can and should be left to get on with it. This being Newcastle, we all understand that things could feasibly go very, very wrong very, very quickly – and the small size of the first-team squad remains a source of genuine concern - but the reality of this season has so far proved much better than anticipated. It has also been very different.
Hughton, who has previously shown little inclination for management, has got on with his job with quiet professionalism. Players such as Alan Smith, Joey Barton and Kevin Nolan who, at the end of last season, looked like anti-footballers, have rediscovered themselves and embraced the challenge. Without a figurehead such as Alan Shearer, a collective has been built. The team is everything.
Ashley’s regime has brought nothing but harm to Newcastle, but the worst fears of many – this column amongst them – in the aftermath of demotion, have not been realised. Supporters, by and large, have not deserted them. The spine of the side, fitness permitting, is superior to most of their rivals. Until it either happens or doesn’t happen, treatment is being sought for the addiction; no more takeover talk here.*
*We’ll end with another Smiths reference: Stop Me If You Think You’ve Heard This One Before.
