Any more injuries and Bournemouth will be in real trouble. I still think they'll take one place, and if Sunderland make the wrong choice at manager then that's two places sewn up.
Those four home games mentioned above look weirdly ominous. If you play like you can (see the first half today) then I see no reason why you can't take 10 pts from those seven games. The problem is, anything less than three points from both Norwich and Stoke at home will be terribly demoralizing, and runs the risk of completely derailing the season.
I still think that the ability to throw money about in the Jan window will prove crucial, and will end up saving you. A proper CB and CM would keep you up.