Jagten

I guess it turns out one good game wasn’t a low-variance predictor of our return to form

They've done a good job of fucking with our build up. That was pretty bad.

Phenomenal. Great performance

This has been really good

It's hard, for sure, but I don't agree with this. That said, it certainly doesn't lend itself well to the gen pop analysing a bunch of closed-source proprietary metrics. Inferring things like xG and its derivatives requires a model, which requires assumptions and skill. These are PhD-level questions, and not ones most people can answer, so I understand the frustration when they are beyond even most advocates.

Most free analysis is shit, most people interpreting it don't know what they're doing. I'd recommend feeling however you want, and I would probably be less inclined to engage if I didn't understand the basics of linear models. Enjoy the win, and don't use a spreadsheet.

Inferring latent quantities from noisy data is an extremely valuable skill, common to basically everywhere that matters, which can very definitely afford you at least your own basement. I think Joelinton is one of the worst starting PL central midfielders when it comes to passing, yes. His out-of-possession game is good and has suited us very well however.

Passing % isn’t a good way to evaluate this. Generally, you need some model of his passing “value”. For example, Statsbomb use their “On Ball Value” model (OBV), which aims to describe the downstream xG delta arising from an action (in this case, whenever Joelinton passes the ball). Ignoring the Onana overlay, his passing OBV is close to the worst in the league

This is probably a stretch, given he can’t really pass.

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/dec/19/top-football-clubs-relying-on-transfer-valuations-made-by-volunteers

His Transfermarkt value is 30m euros, which I believe is a legit point of reference commonly used in negotiations. We can justify that fee, which would be excellent business.

To sell Tripper for a fee that represents a positive risk/return would require a high-value buyer in need or a short-ish term fix, which Bayern are. There's no guarantees there's a market for that in the summer. Likewise, there appears to be no market right now for an Almiron, who I would also much rather sell. I agree there's obvious downsides, and I don't have the data to make a confident decision, but I tend towards doing it.

It's an expectation over the next ~5 years though. Of course, he cannot be replaced right now, but we can replace his impact over that duration, during which he stops playing.

His transfer record isn't actually that bad, even if it's difficult to know the level of involvement he's had in every deal. Clearly there was great talent ID in moving Bournemouth through the football league, even if this doesn't always scale well to PL. In his last two years at Bournemouth, he also spent circa 60m on non-UK players: Danjuma, Lerma, Rico (not these guys were a great use of 60m).

Sure, but the fact he has generally been so remarkable, in his position at his age, is extremely rare. Generally full backs peak and drop-off the earliest. Aside from Kyle Walker, I can't think of many other great full backs over 32.

Billing is alright but he's not even in the Bournemouth team at the moment. No known contract situation to exploit so don't see how it remotely makes sense.

Given his salary (assuming no man city pay off)you’re probably looking at 10-15 max tbh, and I like him.

Fans of 11th place Norwich are extremely against the idea of them re-singing Hayden. He's shit. https://forum.pinkun.com/index.php?/topic/155124-isaac-hayden/

Gotta hope it's a Saudi player. Makes a lot of sense, especially in context of a short-term, FFP-compliant fix, which Joelinton means we really need. I don't think people could dislike us more anyway.

Our midfield is definitely flat by design, and our out-of-possession game looks like it might have been "figured out", in combination with an absence of intensity in the press.

I think it's weird in the sense that whilst it's been impossible to make a call on individuals, recent tactical challenges indicate we might have identified the wrong player profiles. I don't think anyone is right, yet - either those saying the signings are excellent or the window was a failure.

Yes, but extremely difficult to do that with Joelinton and Longstaff in midfield.

Agreed, and I meant defensive unit. I think the tweet also agrees and suggests why

Some interesting analysis on what is now probably the most porous defense in the league here https://x.com/jon_mackenzie/status/1746354228828766487?s=46

For fans of charts, our rolling average expected goals diff has closed. It is very rare to see an averaged xG go limit-up like that.