17th placed teams from last 5 years:
14/15 - 38
13/14 - 36
12/13 - 39
11/12 - 37
10/11 - 40
Taking the lowest of 36, if we beat Villa on Saturday, they'll need 30 points from 21 games.
How to get 30 points from 21:
7 wins, 9 draws, 5 losses (not gonna happen)
8 wins, 6 draws, 7 losses
9 wins, 3 draws, 9 losses
From 1 win in 17 to needing 8 or 9 in 21? Surely they're pretty much down already?