The Liverpool Thread

[Beren]

The no high-crosses stuff just comes from its lack of efficiency. It's hard to deliver high crosses with any weight or directional accuracy, so you'd rather not do it if you had a better alternative. The ball also travels fastest when it's going in a straight line (vertically and horizontally), which means the fastest way to move the ball is on the ground. That is why you'd rarely see a Barca winger just cross the ball into the box. They do it from time to time, but there is a real strategy to it and it's not just a 'let's bomb the penalty area' strategy. It's obviously very effective too because they score s*** loads of goals and the vast majority come from other sources.

 

I guess it's just using these tools to support your game plan. Pep is very heavy on analysis, although doesn't rely on it completely. One of his "innovations" was instructing players not to dive into tackles since analysis showed that if the tackle was missed the player was effectively taken out of play as he needed too much time to get up and run back, etc... our "six second rule" comes from statistical analysis too, the window of time after a turnover where the team that has got the ball still hasn't transitioned out of defensive positioning and thus their players are vulnerable to isolation.

 

Again, those are tools, ultimately it's the 11 brains on the pitch the ones that take the decisions in an ever-changing environment.

 

Barcelona are great at recovering the ball, precisely because they don't lunge into tackles, they crowd players - most of whom will crumble under the pressure and make a seemingly unenforced error because of their perceived lack of options. As you say, the tackling style is more to lever opponents off the ball rather than to commit to an outright lunge to retrieve/dispossess.

[Ant1815]

There's a decent 5-Live podcast about moneyball in Football that's available to download:

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/podcasts/series/5lspecials

 

There's a very interesting interview on there with Comolli where he admits the stats got it wrong on one player, because they didn't take personality in to account. He didn't say who it was but sounds like it could very well be Carroll

[AliGupter]

Chelsea will not finish 3rd or 4th.

 

You must mean 2nd then.

 

They won't be finishing out of the top 4.

[Village Idiot]

The no high-crosses stuff just comes from its lack of efficiency. It's hard to deliver high crosses with any weight or directional accuracy, so you'd rather not do it if you had a better alternative. The ball also travels fastest when it's going in a straight line (vertically and horizontally), which means the fastest way to move the ball is on the ground. That is why you'd rarely see a Barca winger just cross the ball into the box. They do it from time to time, but there is a real strategy to it and it's not just a 'let's bomb the penalty area' strategy. It's obviously very effective too because they score s*** loads of goals and the vast majority come from other sources.

 

I guess it's just using these tools to support your game plan. Pep is very heavy on analysis, although doesn't rely on it completely. One of his "innovations" was instructing players not to dive into tackles since analysis showed that if the tackle was missed the player was effectively taken out of play as he needed too much time to get up and run back, etc... our "six second rule" comes from statistical analysis too, the window of time after a turnover where the team that has got the ball still hasn't transitioned out of defensive positioning and thus their players are vulnerable to isolation.

 

Again, those are tools, ultimately it's the 11 brains on the pitch the ones that take the decisions in an ever-changing environment.

 

Barcelona are great at recovering the ball, precisely because they don't lunge into tackles, they crowd players - most of whom will crumble under the pressure and make a seemingly unenforced error because of their perceived lack of options. As you say, the tackling style is more to lever opponents off the ball rather than to commit to an outright lunge to retrieve/dispossess.

 

Aye, that's the idea behind playing such a shortpassing system too. If Xavi misplaces a 8 yard pass to Iniesta, and the opposition gets the ball, *both* Xavi and Iniesta are close to the opposition player and immediately available to pressure him.

 

Of course, every system has its counters. Strong technical players can get out of the pressure, and use it to create an imbalance somewhere else in the pitch since we just commited 2-3 players against a single one of the opposition. Arsenal used that brilliantly at the Emirates last season in the CL.

[Taylor Swift]

I think one of the most interesting things that has come out of the sports science revolution is the fact that it's now commonly accepted that player peak physically at ages 23-25, and this is most evident in baseball and the NFL. I suppose we will see transfer money being more and more directed towards younger players. Anyone who's buying someone who's 26+ has to realize that they're not getting the player's peak. I think we will see football teams realign their transfer budget accordingly in the next few years, and obscene fees won't be paid for anyone much older, which is different from the past when players aged 27-30 were still thought of as 'peaking'. I know football has a huge mental element, but there's no denying that fundamentally it is a very athletic game, and it's very, very rare that players who aren't elite physically are elite footballers. The physical part is a necessary feature of being 'elite', and thus the realization of when players peak and the allocation of transfer budgets towards younger players will be an irreversible trend.

 

But anyway, at its heart, moneyball is just a way of understanding the game better. Do I think that football is perfectly explained today? No. Do I think analysis could be better and more informative? Yes. So moneyball will play a part because there is still a huge knowledge gap between what we think we know and what actually happens. Football is a very complex sport but I believe that we'll gain a better understanding if we employ the methods that other sports now prioritize.

[Beren]

As a neutral, I really thought they had a fair chance of beating you [or as much as anyone else, anyway] because they are (usually) so assured and confident on the ball.

 

They are generally more than able to capitalise on you having three players commit to one player by pinging it away and around the concentrated areas - sadly, I think the intimidation factor got to them away and they choked. They didn't play at all like they are capable of doing and failed to hurt you with the weapons they had.

 

I think when Ferguson bought Ashley Young this summer, it was with a view to using him against you like Arsenal used Theo Walcott (who, for all his technical inability, is a fantastic athlete and causes confusion/problems for Barca) - which is something they missed in the previous two years despite having decent spells of possession early on in both finals. Doubt they'll get a chance this year, mind you!

[Parky]

KD is only going to get worse, the board will already be questioning his transfers, but are now in the position of where they cannot sack him or hold him responsible or they'll end up being driven out of town like the other yanks. The could throw more money at the situation, which I'm sure is what KD and the fans want, but how deep are their pockets? That initial role of the dice to me will be a one off, they'll more than likely will have to live within their means like everyone else, that's when pissing away £35m on Andy Carroll will split the club, have the board, the manager and the fans all fighting about who is to blame and where it went wrong.

 

It's at that moment KD has a breakdown, it's not too far off IMO, as long as Arsenal keep improving and keep the pressure on for 4th, Tottenham and Chelsea are much better than them and the Manc duo are in a different league to them, they've no chance of what KD will have promised the board for that initial outlay, CL football.

 

 

 

Cushty.

[Parky]

sabremetrics isn't about finding players to buy on the cheap per se, that is simply how one team utilised it (moneyball) to work with their specific budget constraints. it is about assessing players on allegedly objective statistical criteria rather than on subjective opinion, gut feeling, intuition, game impressions etc.

 

The information you gain doing that can be used on a wide variety of applications - choosing who to play in a particular game, what training techniques to use, and of course in the transfer market. a poor club would obviously use it to look for undervalued bargains, but a rich club might use it to make that sure when they spend £30m+ they're getting their money's worth. not necessarily about specifically targeting undervalued players.

 

with that in mind you can perhaps discern how something like this could've been used with Liverpool. Bring in Andy Carroll who had an astonishing ability for turning early diagonals and deep crosses into concrete chances, and then go for Henderson (3rd highest key pass player or some bollocks) Adam (long ball king) and Downing (one of the league's top crossers) and, in theory, it should work. big fees paid don't preclude stats being used to pinpoint those players.

 

The problem in football, as sewelly pointed out, is that it is far more fluid. simply importing a set of statistics from another sport and applying them to football isnt going to work. you need to completely go back to basics and figure out what set of statistics are actually important, how to weight them blah blah blah. if you're using a system that worked in a stop-start, incidental game like baseball then there may well be an in-built bias towards statistics that measure end-product or easily definable moments - ie key passes, goals, shots, crosses, tackle percentages and so on. these kinds of concrete events make up a big proportion of what happens in baseball, but a small proportion of what goes into making a game of football.

 

kevin nolan, for instance, may score incredibly highly on a certain set of values, yet luka modric, with only 3 goals and 3 assists last season, may not. yet Modric was arguably the league's best midfielder last season, and Nolan just mediocre. you have to figure out a set of stats that shows why modric is better than nolan, how better teams are more likely to go for the former than the latter. though to a degree that would just be using stats to backup a subjective opinion. with so many variables in the sport it may be that the well trained human brain of a pro scout or coach is better equipped to make judgements than a computer model.

 

but then there's not just one player on his own at the bat, but a bunch of guys who need to gel as a team. so even once you've formulated a complex statistical approach to deal with individual players you need to work out the same for tactics. basically sabremetrics in football is in its infancy and anyone trying to use this as the foundation of how their club operates is being reckless, if not stupid.

 

then of course there's elements that can't be covered by stats - that carroll was number 9 for his boyhood club, had a support structure from living at home and being babysat by kevin nolan, that he likes a drink, or how he played at an intensity that may have been physically unsustainable etc.

 

as a post-script, arsenal have been using stats for a while, but they've seen a drawn-out decline in the past 6 years or so. remember hearing wenger let Henry go as his sprint times over 60metres started to edge up dramatically - something people didnt notice that much on the pitch, but a fact that was really obvious not too long into his barca career. and that they never used high crosses as stats showed they were ineffective - but to an extent it's stripped them of a much valuable tool. also heard that arsenal don't require their players to bulk up at the gym like other clubs, as physical confrontations technically don't make a significant part of the game, and time at training could be used more efficiently.  then of course there's allardyce telling his players at bolton not to shoot from distance due to decreased scoring chances, and the fact you lose possession.

 

most of these examples make me think most people in football really don't have a clue how to use statistics properly so it would be no surprise liverpool screwed up royally trying to gain an advantage on everyone else.

 

Cracking post johnny. Nice read.

[ponsaelius]

Love that post johnny, cheers.

[wacko]

Me, too. Very well articulated.

[Dave]

On the issue of stats etc, I never understand why people haven't stopped shooting from free kicks yet, the conversion rate must be absolutely tiny.

 

It's the media's fault for making out Beckham scored with every attempt.

 

Does get on my tits how predictable it is though, it seems a rare event these days for teams to try and work something clever from such good positions. I guess the egos on the players don't help, all thinking they're going to score.

[Guest Howaythetoon]

For me football is all about appointing a good manager with a good skill set across the board and backing that man within your means and success will arrive, be it winning the league, finishing in the top 4 or simply surviving, all things that for various clubs will be considered as success.

 

Of course statistical information and analysis is important but a good manager is the key to everything. That said, I strongly believe that confidence is a massive aspect of a footballer and a team and even a club. For example if fans have confidence in their team's manager it can make all the difference. KK has a poor start to his third coming if you like but we as fans had confidence in him and that helped the players and the team and probably KK himself.

 

I know if I was paid to analyse the game confidence would be one area I would look very deep into from every angle and every facet. I play football and if I miss the target my head can drop and I can misplace passes and everything. If I score a goal though suddenly my confidence can rise and I'll beat a player here, make a great pass there, and it is mainly all down to confidence.

 

And speaking of confidence. Carroll played with huge doses of it at Newcastle because he had a manager who loved him, fans who adored him and team-mates who loved him too. He got huge confidence from playing for Newcastle and scoring goals, from being awarded that number 9 shirt.

 

All that has been taken away from him and all you are left with is a pretty limited player in terms of techinque and skill who is mentally weak and lives an unprofessional lifestyle.

[Village Idiot]

On the issue of stats etc, I never understand why people haven't stopped shooting from free kicks yet, the conversion rate must be absolutely tiny.

 

It's the media's fault for making out Beckham scored with every attempt.

 

Does get on my tits how predictable it is though, it seems a rare event these days for teams to try and work something clever from such good positions. I guess the egos on the players don't help, all thinking they're going to score.

 

Is the conversion rate of trying to build up play from a FK that much better though? At least you're guaranteed a shot on goal under controlled conditions, which isn't a bad thing to do.

[Hughesy]

On the issue of stats etc, I never understand why people haven't stopped shooting from free kicks yet, the conversion rate must be absolutely tiny.

 

It's the media's fault for making out Beckham scored with every attempt.

 

Does get on my tits how predictable it is though, it seems a rare event these days for teams to try and work something clever from such good positions. I guess the egos on the players don't help, all thinking they're going to score.

 

Is the conversion rate of trying to build up play from a FK that much better though? At least you're guaranteed a shot on goal under controlled conditions, which isn't a bad thing to do.

 

Exactly - what kind of chance are you going to create if you have a free kick 20-35 yards from goal within the width of the penalty area?  There is no angle to cross the ball, so a shot on goal is easily your best chance of a goal, even if that is from a resulting goalmouth scramble or a corner.

[johnnypd]

On the issue of stats etc, I never understand why people haven't stopped shooting from free kicks yet, the conversion rate must be absolutely tiny.

 

It's the media's fault for making out Beckham scored with every attempt.

 

Does get on my tits how predictable it is though, it seems a rare event these days for teams to try and work something clever from such good positions. I guess the egos on the players don't help, all thinking they're going to score.

 

Is the conversion rate of trying to build up play from a FK that much better though? At least you're guaranteed a shot on goal under controlled conditions, which isn't a bad thing to do.

 

imagine it wouldn't be too different, but at least you keep possession. of course, with so many people back defending, all taking up good positions, often man-marking, and a wall of 4 people who would usually be out of the game upfield offering extra help, usually the best you're going to get out of the situation is another set-piece, so back to square one!

 

personally i do like to see less obvious set-pieces, if only because it shows players using a bit of intelligence and inventiveness, though once you've sprung the surprise a couple of times you have to go on and do something else otherwise teams can prepare and nullify it. example would be the England under 21s all arguing about taking a freekick for a shot on goal, whereas the Spanish lads (even down at their schoolboy level) had a couple of really clever routines worked out that caught defenders off guard. players have to think for themselves at the end of the day.

[Dave]

I'm not saying that shooting is a bad idea, I'd just like to see teams (including us) keep the opposition guessing a bit more. And that shot is a fat load of good when it's just smashed into the wall btw, this isn't like a penalty. It can even be more dangerous in terms of conceding on the break in fact.

[Sifu]

@SkySports Sky Sports

The FA has charged Luis Suarez with improper conduct & Liverpool for failing to control their players following their game at Fulham. MTF

 

15 minutes ago via TweetDeck

 

Good.

[taxfree]

"Luis Suarez is charged with improper conduct in relation to an alleged gesture made towards the Fulham fans."

 

Fine or ban? If ban, for how long possibly?

[Optimistic Nut]

Player indiscipline = Parky 5-4?

[Sifu]

"Luis Suarez is charged with improper conduct in relation to an alleged gesture made towards the Fulham fans."

 

Fine or ban? If ban, for how long possibly?

 

Most likely a fine in this instance.

[Village Idiot]

I'm not saying that shooting is a bad idea, I'd just like to see teams (including us) keep the opposition guessing a bit more. And that shot is a fat load of good when it's just smashed into the wall btw, this isn't like a penalty. It can even be more dangerous in terms of conceding on the break in fact.

 

Fair enough. We (Barça) used to have more strategy plays, but we don't seem to nowadays. One of the coaches said that the time employed rehearsing them was too much given that you can use them a limited amount of times before  you get sussed (although apparently we still have a few for crunch times).

[Dokko]

"Luis Suarez is charged with improper conduct in relation to an alleged gesture made towards the Fulham fans."

 

Fine or ban? If ban, for how long possibly?

 

Most likely a fine in this instance.

 

Reckon the FA are itching to charge him over the alleged racist remarks, they'll probably do a trade, let him off forvthat with a warning and hand a 3 match ban for this. Suarez isn't branded a racist forever, FA are seen to take action, fans get some sort of justice for his behaviour. FA are slimy fukers, they'll do owt to try and not upset the top teams too much.

[Sifu]

"Luis Suarez is charged with improper conduct in relation to an alleged gesture made towards the Fulham fans."

 

Fine or ban? If ban, for how long possibly?

 

Most likely a fine in this instance.

 

Reckon the FA are itching to charge him over the alleged racist remarks, they'll probably do a trade, let him off forvthat with a warning and hand a 3 match ban for this. Suarez isn't branded a racist forever, FA are seen to take action, fans get some sort of justice for his behaviour. FA are slimy fukers, they'll do owt to try and not upset the top teams too much.

 

Indeed

[Sifu]

A lot of people on Twitter think it's a joke that the FA have charged Suarez for simply giving the middle finger..........

[Guest BooBoo]

The FA should be watching that arsehole Suarez's every move on the pitch.

 

Despicable individual.