Tisd09 Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 Stats don't mean everything. Are we not going to win a game again. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cronky Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 There are lots of issues that I could argue with, but just to pick a couple - It often gets said that Ashley needs to communicate more with the fans about the club's strategy. Well, he's already done that, in black and white (no pun etc) Break even in terms of annual income / expenditure by 2015, develop young talent, only pay money for players whose value will be maintained or increased over the length of the contract. He's actually been far more transparent than most owners. The Carroll transfer often gets used as evidence that Ashley is simply out to make a profit, but £35m was a ridiculous offer and, if the money is used wisely, can result in a stronger squad. There's every sign that the club are trying to do that, but obviously it's not easy if more successful clubs are also interested in the top players. Critics like Barton and Keegan both came out with the rather schizoid stance of criticising the club for selling their best player and then later saying that they'd have taken the same decision, giving the size of the offer. You can't have it both ways. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cunning_Linguist Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 We won 0 of 8 games without Nolan last season. I am sure we have won a game when Perch has played so does that mean we should play him every game? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest johnson293 Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 So this 'Mass Exodus' theory that the independent is peddling is based solely on Barton's tweet mentioning himself and 2 other players, one of which we presumed was almost certainly gone anyway?? http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/transfers/newcastle-in-turmoil-as-livid-barton-warns-of-mass-exodus-2297893.html Aye, were in turmoil! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest johnson293 Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 We won 0 of 8 games without Nolan last season. Yes, and of course we won every game he played! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldtype Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 See, I expected this. You English football fans and your pathological dislike of anything statistical. "Stats don't mean anything, my baseless conjecture is much more reliable." Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ObiChrisKenobi Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 One sided stats mean just as little. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tisd09 Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 England went on a long run of not losing when Steven Gerrard played. As we all know that soon came to a stop. So are we never going to win again? That's what you seem to be implying with your post? Have other factors in those games been taken into account. What else have you based your opinion on other than one stand alone fact? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldtype Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 I think it's a fairly robust indicator that there's a strong chance that the presence of Kevin Nolan within our team has a significant influence on our probability of getting a positive result from our matches. That's the fully qualified version, but thanks for setting up something like four straw mans for me without even asking. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ObiChrisKenobi Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 How does that quote indicate the quality of team we were playing, the quality of team we had out, the results (goals scored/conceded). Come on Oldtype. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tisd09 Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 So does your indicator suggest that we won't win a game again? Do other factors not count? It's easy to post stats and say OMG 1111!!!!111 cockney mafia out. (not that you did by the way). Like someone said earlier did we win every game he played? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karjala Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 In my opinion, Management (not Pardew or Lame arse but Ashley) needs to immediately communicate with the fans and advise us all of three things: 1. Why our best players have been sold off and the truth, not just crap to pull the wool over our eyes. You'll never ge t the truth from this regime, and the pulling the wool over the eyes seems to be working as long as they sell tickets. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
stozo Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 I think it is clear to everyone that the opening post is ridiculously negative. I really do not see the problem with restructuring the squad after we have finished 12th in the league. Yes, we had a positive season seeing as many believed we would find ourselves in a relegation battle but that doesn't mean the players we have are good enough to take us to the next level. In an ideal world within the next three years we will be in, or at least have come close to getting into, Europe. We need to look at things critically and think about who in our current squad is good enough to be part of the squad of the next three years challenging for Europe. If we are being honest a player like Nolan who is 29 and, despite his goals, has come in for some critcism for some of his performances should ideally not be part of our plans. On the rest of the "exodus". I expect both Barton and Enrique to leave but I can accept it. Barton because he wants a longer contract than we will give him (rightly so) and Enrique because he will get an offer from a "bigger" club than us. Like I say there is no problem with these players leaving, as long as they are replaced. I am so optimistic about the squad restructuring because it is clear from the summer so far that we have identified several targets and are moving to acquire them. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest JS Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 Way to give the lad/lass constructive criticism. He's just raising a point. Is Joey Barton right in stating we can look forward to a mass exodus of players and is it already in process. If so, how will this affect our future over the next couple of years. I think its probably just speculation on his part. Maybe he sees the board selling the teams best assets after the Nolan situation. Nobody knows anything except Nolan and Ashley/Llambias. And nobody really takes what comes from the board seriously either.. Gone: Carroll, Nolan, Campbell, Kuqi - almost 40 million pounds gained, salary savings 120K per week I think we've saved more then 120k per week, and while I agree there's been nearly £40m gained, the jury's out on wether this will be spent. How alan Pardew spends the thick end of even half of that remains to be seen.. the jury's out IMO but with Cabaye so far, seemingly so good Probably gone: Enrique, Ranger, Barton - probably around 12 million pounds to gain, salary savings 110K per week Probably a fair assessment. Time will tell Unwanted: Smith, Routledge, Xisco - probably around 4 million pounds to gain, salary savings 140K per week If we can shift them that is. Just makes our squad even more paper thin then before. See below with whats left lol Past it: Harper, Ameobi, Perch, Lovenkrands - probably would get about 3 million for that lot plus salary savings of around 150K per week. Cant see why these couldnt be experienced cover, especially for squad depth Whats left: Krul, Forster, Taylor, Simpson, Williamson, Kadar, R.Taylor, Guthrie, Best, Ben Arfa, Cabaye, Gosling, Colo, Jonas, Tiote plus a few kids. Of course, what do we factor in to finance the current debt and how much does that leave us to spend on players? Pardew said he was happy with what Ashley had given him. So i'm speculating its probably a good wedge of that, but probably not the full whack imo. In my opinion, the club is on the verge of imploding and the reasons are clear to me, maybe you too. 1. We have sold off our most important players. 2. We cannot seem to shift unwanted players who are running down their contracts. 3. We are finding it difficult to attract quality replacements 4. Management seems to be intent on buying bargain basement out of contract players, release clauses etc etc etc. 5. We have sold our leader. who will replace him. 6. The club's reputation is terrible. 1. Nolans gone and Carrols gone, and now that i've slept on it (The Nolan selling) it dawned on me that this might not be such a bad thing really. Mr 'I want to have my kids grow up here, they were born here, my family is here etc' was quick to jump ship to be with his older, fatter buddy Sam Allardyce in the championship. Luke Edwards saying it was over a measly few grand a week. Pathetic if true. And the noises he was making when Carroll left really pissed me off. Thats all there is so far 2. I think with Nolan thats probably been the case on the boards part, wait and see on Smith, et al 3. If Cabaye is actually the replacement for Nolan, im fairly happy with that, having bids accepted for Gervinho and Gamiero wasn't a bad start either. However.. the Modric saga springs to mind.. smoke and mirrors? Who knows 4. Release clauses aren't a bad thing whatsoever. Spain's full of them 5. Good question, possibly harper? barton? At this stage anyway 6. Pretty much, and previous history around these times in the last 3 years hasn't inspired much confidence either, but for Cabaye, Ben Arfa, Abeid, Tiote to join we must be doing something right at least. I am certain that the likes of Tiote and Jonas will be sold off before the season commences and non descript replacements will be brought in. Jonas.. no idea. Tiote? Well, if the cynic in you believes he was only given a 6 year deal so to ramp his value right up then you might have a point. But I dont feel thats the case All this continual talk about players coming in, so far, has seen a steady reduction from the likes of Cameiro, Gervinho etc to Barnetta etc and soon, it will be the likes of Carlton Cole etc. Its all speculation, but whats been concrete so far is Cabaye and Abeid who im more then happy with. Time will tell to see if they fit in and play well here though. In my opinion, Management (not Pardew or Lame arse but Ashley) needs to immediately communicate with the fans and advise us all of three things: 1. Why our best players have been sold off and the truth, not just crap to pull the wool over our eyes. 2. The real state of our financial situation supported by evidence 3. What are the REAL short and long term plans for the club so that fans can see developments without second guessing everyone and everything. Difficult, because the majority of the fanbase take what they say as a pinch of salt / bullshit anyway... but! 1. Yes 2. No - Dont go public on how much money you have to spend on players. Or suddenly everybody you go for somehow becomes a bit more expensive.. I.E People know they can milk the likes of Man City, Chelsea, etc 3. I believe it was the 'Arsenal model' spiel that speccy Dekka handed out a while ago. So far young and french. Probably close enough Now, some of you might think I am on cloud cuckoo land, but this is how I see our current situation and if the above points are not addressed, then I would imagine an awful lot of supporters might be thinking along the revolutionary lines like me as relegation WILL be a distinct probability if things do not improve and FAST. If that's how you see it, fair play, I just dont see this as a total disaster so far. I think we will come out of it with some younger, perhaps more talented replacements, but probably still no squad depth. 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NEEJ Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 What a load of absolute bollocks. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
AyeDubbleYoo Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 I think it is clear to everyone that the opening post is ridiculously negative. I really do not see the problem with restructuring the squad after we have finished 12th in the league. Yes, we had a positive season seeing as many believed we would find ourselves in a relegation battle but that doesn't mean the players we have are good enough to take us to the next level. In an ideal world within the next three years we will be in, or at least have come close to getting into, Europe. We need to look at things critically and think about who in our current squad is good enough to be part of the squad of the next three years challenging for Europe. If we are being honest a player like Nolan who is 29 and, despite his goals, has come in for some critcism for some of his performances should ideally not be part of our plans. On the rest of the "exodus". I expect both Barton and Enrique to leave but I can accept it. Barton because he wants a longer contract than we will give him (rightly so) and Enrique because he will get an offer from a "bigger" club than us. Like I say there is no problem with these players leaving, as long as they are replaced. I am so optimistic about the squad restructuring because it is clear from the summer so far that we have identified several targets and are moving to acquire them. Agreed. I am slightly worried about the speed of change, but the circumstances around Barton and especially Enrique can't really be helped. Ironic that people are usually crying out for more transfer activity almost every window, and I still think this thread wouldn't exist if NUFC had sold Nolan a few days before signing Cabaye instead of after. Still sorry to see him go mind. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldtype Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 Here's a broader rant: it pisses me off to no end how people think "statistics aren't perfect" = "statistics are useless" As a tool of analysis statistics are never going to give you the 100% perfect picture and if you rely solely on them you are going to come to some pretty screwed up conclusions, but too many take some snippets they've learned about how statistics are flawed and expand it to this really annoying "I'm cleverer than the numbers" attitude. Nobody intelligent relies entirely on statistics, but nobody intelligent tries to make it out like they're some kind of voodoo either. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
AyeDubbleYoo Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 Here's a broader rant: it pisses me off to no end how people think "statistics aren't perfect" = "statistics are useless" As a tool of analysis statistics are never going to give you the 100% perfect picture and if you rely solely on them you are going to come to some pretty screwed up conclusions, but too many take some snippets they've learned about how statistics are flawed and expand it to this really annoying "I'm cleverer than the numbers" attitude. Nobody intelligent relies entirely on statistics, but nobody intelligent tries to make it out like they're some kind of voodoo either. Thing is though, in a game like football with so many participants and such a large element of luck, a sample size of one season must be almost meaningless. I mean, of those 8 games we lost without Nolan, who else was missing or playing, who were we playing against? I agree stats aren't totally useless, but over such short time periods with so many other factors I take them with a pinch of salt. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest schmuck Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 Never heard of him. African? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
madras Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 Here's a broader rant: it pisses me off to no end how people think "statistics aren't perfect" = "statistics are useless" As a tool of analysis statistics are never going to give you the 100% perfect picture and if you rely solely on them you are going to come to some pretty screwed up conclusions, but too many take some snippets they've learned about how statistics are flawed and expand it to this really annoying "I'm cleverer than the numbers" attitude. Nobody intelligent relies entirely on statistics, but nobody intelligent tries to make it out like they're some kind of voodoo either. using stats to back up a point is always dangerous as the same stats can often be used against it. look at the games he didn't play in, very good performances against chelsea and man utd and shit ones when tiote was also missing. the stat about not winning a game when he didn't play doesn't stand for much when it's examined closer. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colocho Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 http://chabadnj.org/UserFiles/kriat.jpg Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ObiChrisKenobi Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 Here's a broader rant: it pisses me off to no end how people think "statistics aren't perfect" = "statistics are useless" As a tool of analysis statistics are never going to give you the 100% perfect picture and if you rely solely on them you are going to come to some pretty screwed up conclusions, but too many take some snippets they've learned about how statistics are flawed and expand it to this really annoying "I'm cleverer than the numbers" attitude. Nobody intelligent relies entirely on statistics, but nobody intelligent tries to make it out like they're some kind of voodoo either. wow, take a step back oldtype. All people are suggesting, as Ian W said above, was that that direct quote you used is a bit pointless. We didn't win the 8 games Nolan missed. But we didn't lose them all. We still scored goals. We didn't concede that many goals either. Tiote was also missing in at least half of those games. So many variables that that 1 quote you used doesn't really paint any other picture then it was Nolan's absence alone that had any factor in the not winning. No-ones suggesting your career in stats is pointless. Not sure anyone is showing ignorance towards stats either, just being weary towards one sided quotes without the rest of picture being shown as well. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldtype Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 I never said Kevin Nolan not playing was correlated 1:1 with us not winning, and never claimed to be doing so. I just got annoyed because people seemed readily straw man me into that in order to respond with the usual platitudes about "statistics, LOL" And I don't have a career in statistics. Thank God Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ponsaelius Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 It's a shite stat, tbh. Anomalistic. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dokko Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 ... Comments please Load of shite really. Stop panicking, the club is going through a transition, we will be better for it in the long run. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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