loki679 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 I think we've stretched this as far as it'll go lads Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darth Crooks Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Extended cancer metaphors? Just another monday morning in the Pardew thread! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrettNUFC Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Extended cancer metaphors? Just another monday morning in the Pardew thread! I was expecting an upbeat forum after a win Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happy Face Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 i don't think the effects of a European campain are as immediate as losing on a Sunday following a game on Thursday. Has anyone actually compared the proportion of points clubs win in the game following a euro fixture compared with their overall season average, to see if there is a drop off that obvious, rather than this sort of anecdotal "Swansea lost but Wigan won" sort of gubbins? ? I looked at the effect on overall seasons since the Europa began and the the trend is for a worse performance, but it is almost insignificant when when you remove Newcastle from the data. Average positions lost - 1.6 Average positions lost without NUFC skew - 0.8 Average points lost - 2.25 Average points lost without NUFC skew - 0.27 I also wondered what happened when you remove teams like Man City, Spurs and Liverpool who have the set-up to cope with a europa league campaign. What's the trend for the likes of Stoke Fulham, Villa and Everton with/without NUFC? Average positions lost - 3.4 Average positions lost without NUFC skew - 2.2 Average points lost - 6.4 Average points lost without NUFC skew - 3.5 Cleary there is a more pronounced drop in performance levels among the teams that can't afford the investment to maintain standards during a Euro campaign, but Newcastle have been by far the worst contributor to that trend. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taylor Swift Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 You're assuming these points dropped have occurred because of the European campaign. More likely these teams dropped back to their normal levels after having a good campaign the year before, or they had changes in managers and players. I would argue that those other factors far outweigh any potential negative effect of a European campaign. If you had a big enough sample size and did a regression, you wouldn't find anything that is statistically significant, I'm certain. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest firetotheworks Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 I think you mean won't afford, not can't afford. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tooj Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 I seem to remember us doing well under Sir Bobby following our Champions League matches, which of course was against a far higher standard of opposition. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taylor Swift Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 A better analysis would be if you actually looked at total matches played in a season. I'm sure a match in Europe isn't significantly more tiring than a league cup match, so teams which have extended cup runs domestically should also suffer from this, assuming your theory is correct. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
AyeDubbleYoo Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 You're assuming these points dropped have occurred because of the European campaign. More likely these teams dropped back to their normal levels after having a good campaign the year before, or they had changes in managers and players. I would argue that those other factors far outweigh any potential negative effect of a European campaign. If you had a big enough sample size and did a regression, you wouldn't find anything that is statistically significant, I'm certain. Well this is just pure assumption though. Common sense seems to suggest that flying round the world, having less time to prepare, and playing extra games would make for a tougher season. It's not an excuse for how badly we did, but I don't understand why people spend so long denying that the effect exists. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taylor Swift Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 There are also other factors such as successful cup runs negating the importance of league positions, like Fulham resting players for their league matches during their run. We on the other hand rested loads of players in Europe but still suffered in the league. Look at the amount of time our best players actually played in Europe and compare it to a team that has a normal domestic cup run and you won't find much difference. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happy Face Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 You're assuming these points dropped have occurred because of the European campaign. More likely these teams dropped back to their normal levels after having a good campaign the year before, or they had changes in managers and players. I would argue that those other factors far outweigh any potential negative effect of a European campaign. If you had a big enough sample size and did a regression, you wouldn't find anything that is statistically significant, I'm certain. Absolutely, correlation is not necessarilly causation. There are a multitude of factors on how a season goes for a club. However, I think clubs tend to make the same sorts of mistakes, either not investing at all or spending too high on mercenary players or keeping a manager on for too long based on the finish he achieved the season prior. that sort of thing. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taylor Swift Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 You're assuming these points dropped have occurred because of the European campaign. More likely these teams dropped back to their normal levels after having a good campaign the year before, or they had changes in managers and players. I would argue that those other factors far outweigh any potential negative effect of a European campaign. If you had a big enough sample size and did a regression, you wouldn't find anything that is statistically significant, I'm certain. Well this is just pure assumption though. Common sense seems to suggest that flying round the world, having less time to prepare, and playing extra games would make for a tougher season. It's not an excuse for how badly we did, but I don't understand why people spend so long denying that the effect exists. Our best players didn't play, though. Flying all around the world? You mean a three hour flight instead of a three hour bus ride? Having less time to prepare? Same applies to teams that have domestic cup runs. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest icemanblue Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Pretty sad that the football section is at its quietest after we've won, like. Strange times. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happy Face Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 I seem to remember us doing well under Sir Bobby following our Champions League matches, which of course was against a far higher standard of opposition. I'd have put us in the Spurs/Liverpool bracket back then. Our european finish wasn't an anomaly and we spent what would be expected of a champions league club. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
AyeDubbleYoo Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Well nobody knows, it's kind of a pointless discussion. There's no way we can actually know how we would have done if we weren't in Europe. And even then, we wouldn't know whether that was a general proof or just a one-off incident combining with other factors. Football doesn't really present large enough samples of anything to be statistically significant. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrettNUFC Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Pretty sad that the football section is at its quietest after we've won, like. Strange times. Seems so Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happy Face Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 You're assuming these points dropped have occurred because of the European campaign. More likely these teams dropped back to their normal levels after having a good campaign the year before, or they had changes in managers and players. I would argue that those other factors far outweigh any potential negative effect of a European campaign. If you had a big enough sample size and did a regression, you wouldn't find anything that is statistically significant, I'm certain. Well this is just pure assumption though. Common sense seems to suggest that flying round the world, having less time to prepare, and playing extra games would make for a tougher season. It's not an excuse for how badly we did, but I don't understand why people spend so long denying that the effect exists. Our best players didn't play, though. Flying all around the world? You mean a three hour flight instead of a three hour bus ride? Having less time to prepare? Same applies to teams that have domestic cup runs. A Premier league team not knocked out of the domestic cups will have played 4 cup games by christmas. All the other clubs in the league will have played at least one as well though, most will have played two or three. So you're looking at an extra 1 to 3 games over your opponents in the league. The 3 clubs in the Europa will play 8 extra games over the other 13 clubs not involved in Europe before christmas. If it's accepted that the league cup will have an impact, then it follows that the European competitions will have a worse impact. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Roger Kint Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Pretty sad that the football section is at its quietest after we've won, like. Strange times. Seems so Theres some disappointed people around Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest firetotheworks Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Pretty sad that the football section is at its quietest after we've won, like. Strange times. Seems so Maybe people have the same points to make but are trying not to moan in the face of victory? That's my outlook on it. Everything that I think about Pardew, Ashley, our set up and the way that we play still stands. That doesn't mean that I want to spend my week bleating on about the same things when we've won. Otherwise what little joy would there be? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrettNUFC Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Pretty sad that the football section is at its quietest after we've won, like. Strange times. Seems so Maybe people have the same points to make but are trying not to moan in the face of victory? That's my outlook on it. Everything that I think about Pardew, Ashley, our set up and the way that we play still stands. That doesn't mean that I want to spend my week bleating on about the same things when we've won. Otherwise what little joy would there be? Yeah suppose that's true, easier to get the points over on the back of loss rather than a victory. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest firetotheworks Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Pretty sad that the football section is at its quietest after we've won, like. Strange times. Seems so Maybe people have the same points to make but are trying not to moan in the face of victory? That's my outlook on it. Everything that I think about Pardew, Ashley, our set up and the way that we play still stands. That doesn't mean that I want to spend my week bleating on about the same things when we've won. Otherwise what little joy would there be? Yeah suppose that's true, easier to get the points over on the back of loss rather than a victory. No. Easier to stay sane by enjoying the victory. All of the points are still there and are easy to make, even using that match as an example. I just don't see the point in not taking the one bit of joy that NUFC affords us. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
AyeDubbleYoo Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Most people are way past the point where they're going to come on here happy after a win. Just the way it is. Same thing I do really, avoid the football forum after a defeat when I know it'll be unbearable. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest icemanblue Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 I'm all too aware of the reasons why, like. Just saying, it's a shame that it's come to this. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
AyeDubbleYoo Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Sure. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest icemanblue Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 This is the Pardew thread. It's a bit like how Cisse still gets criticised when we win. Is it busier elsewhere? This is my homepage, and I don't tend to stray far. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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