Happy Face Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 Conversion rate was 11.5 % last season (56/489) . Would have been the 4th best this season and equated to 60 goals rather than 45. All those players were here then too. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Varadi Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 I'm a stats geek so find this kind of thing really interesting - thanks for posting The shot conversion thing is especially revealing, adds extra credence to theory that last season's success was largely based on the purple patches of Ba and Cisse. Genuinely surprised how even most of the rest of the figures are. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
LRD Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 You'll probably see a significant difference in % converted chances between this season and last too. Cisse was close to scoring from almost every opportunity last season, while he hasn't hit the same heights this season. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unbelievable Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 Can you add chance (shot) conversion both us and opposition? It's sad enough I've took the time to do Newcastle, I'm not deeing 20 other clubs. Nah, I meant for and against us.. Not sure how i would do against us, but you got me excited you slag...here you are... http://i41.tinypic.com/90qd52.jpg f***ing woeful, as you'd expect. Credence to the fact that the system creates enough, the players just don't convert them. You're a star! Indeed, as you say, this statistic is very meaningful. Assume you cannot compare to last season? Is fear it's down drastically.. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unbelievable Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 Just seen your post on this page.. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
loki679 Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 Think of Cisse's wondergoals last season and you can see how our conversion rate might be skewed. As I remember everything he hit was going in even if he wasn't getting a great number of chances. That was never going to continue indefinitely. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benwell Lad Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 That assumes every shot is a reasonable chance though. When you've got Papiss Cisse and Cheik Tiote in your side, that's definitely not the case. Although some aspects of his game have been quite admirable, Cisse's conversion rate has been awful this season. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happy Face Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 Think of Cisse's wondergoals last season and you can see how our conversion rate might be skewed. As I remember everything he hit was going in even if he wasn't getting a great number of chances. That was never going to continue indefinitely. Conversion rate in 10/11 was 11% too. Over the course of 38 games I don't think it's a stat that can be explained away against flukes. Basically we don't have the quality up top to put chances away. Ba was a massive loss and Gouffran/Shola aren't big enough for his boots. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unbelievable Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 Top work HF. Certainly busts a few myths about our season. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flip Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 I usually don't like stats, but it shows that the 'good football' a lot of people on here suggested we played last season is a myth. The ball would appear to have been on the deck a lot more mind given the aerial duel statistics. Except possession and short passes suggest we didn't. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happy Face Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 I'm interested to see what our conversion rate was this season, prior to Ba departing, even during the really poor run, and since then. Unfortunately I don't have numbers for shots up until 04/01/203, so I'll have to do a pro-rata split for those. However.. Up to 01/01/2013 Played 20 Goals scored 26 Pro rata shots = 526/37 * 20 = 284.3 Conversion rate with Ba = 26/284.3 = 9.14% since 01/01/2013 Played 17 Goals 19 Pro rata shots = 526/37 * 17 = 241.7 Conversion Rate without Ba = 19/241.7 = 7.86% EDIT: Because he didn't play against Everton on the 2nd Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unbelievable Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 The pro rata approach unfortunately renders those stats questionable at best. Where are you getting your basic data from? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happy Face Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 The pro rata approach unfortunately renders those stats questionable at best. Where are you getting your basic data from? whoscored and statto Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happy Face Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 The pro rata approach unfortunately renders those stats questionable at best. Aye. At a basic level though 26/20(with Ba) > 19/17(without Ba). The pro rata calculation just allows us to compare with the average for the whole season in the table and with previous seasons. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 That assumes every shot is a reasonable chance though. When you've got Papiss Cisse and Cheik Tiote in your side, that's definitely not the case. Although some aspects of his game have been quite admirable, Cisse's conversion rate has been awful this season. Aye, I put him as the biggest disappointment on the Chronicle survey. Obviously I didn't expect him to continue last season's ridiculous strike rate but the number of excellent chances he's missed has definitely contributed to our downfall. It'd help if we had other players capable of scoring more like, though the defensive nature of much of our play hasn't helped this. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ujpest doza Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 That assumes every shot is a reasonable chance though. When you've got Papiss Cisse and Cheik Tiote in your side, that's definitely not the case. Although some aspects of his game have been quite admirable, Cisse's conversion rate has been awful this season. Aye, I put him as the biggest disappointment on the Chronicle survey. Obviously I didn't expect him to continue last season's ridiculous strike rate but the number of excellent chances he's missed has definitely contributed to our downfall. It'd help if we had other players capable of scoring more like, though the defensive nature of much of our play hasn't helped this. Reading at home being a prime case in point where others said the keeper played a blinder whereas i thought Cisse's finishing had been poor and he should have had a hat trick. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benwell Lad Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 That assumes every shot is a reasonable chance though. When you've got Papiss Cisse and Cheik Tiote in your side, that's definitely not the case. Although some aspects of his game have been quite admirable, Cisse's conversion rate has been awful this season. Aye, I put him as the biggest disappointment on the Chronicle survey. Obviously I didn't expect him to continue last season's ridiculous strike rate but the number of excellent chances he's missed has definitely contributed to our downfall. It'd help if we had other players capable of scoring more like, though the defensive nature of much of our play hasn't helped this. Our cagey unambitious set up has definitely made it a tough season to be playing as a lone striker. Striking options have to be the absolute priority this summer. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happy Face Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 At a basic level though 26/20(with Ba) > 19/17(without Ba). Just one last thing to add to this....I think the difference between 1.3 goals per game and 1.1 can be dismissed as negligible. But the margins are small on a number like that. I've put it in a graph to show the teams we were outscoring with Ba, and those outscoring us without him. http://i41.tinypic.com/5f3pz4.jpg# Basically, only the top 7 had a better strike rate until Ba went the journey. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 Funnily enough lots of people defended Pardew before Ba was sold by saying that he was greedy and holding us back as a team. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happy Face Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 Funnily enough lots of people defended Pardew before Ba was sold by saying that he was greedy and holding us back as a team. They must have been confident of a better replacement eh? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 Funnily enough lots of people defended Pardew before Ba was sold by saying that he was greedy and holding us back as a team. That was before everything was the managers fault though and people were clambouring to be certain that the ideal would start to happen when he, Simpson and Williamson stopped appearing. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gallowgate Toon Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 We've played better football since Ba left, albeit sporadically, but we were utterly abject in the first half of the campaign in terms of style. While we've been a little slicker, we've still lacked creativity and penetration in and around the box. A big problem has been lacking an intelligent and consistent creative force in the final 3rd. Ben Arfa's been injured a lot, Marveaux's form has fluctuated and Cabaye's often been too far away from dangerous areas. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
loki679 Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 Think of Cisse's wondergoals last season and you can see how our conversion rate might be skewed. As I remember everything he hit was going in even if he wasn't getting a great number of chances. That was never going to continue indefinitely. Conversion rate in 10/11 was 11% too. Over the course of 38 games I don't think it's a stat that can be explained away against flukes. Basically we don't have the quality up top to put chances away. Ba was a massive loss and Gouffran/Shola aren't big enough for his boots. If you apply Cisse's conversion rate this season to last season's stats you get a conversion rate of 9.2%, significant enough. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unbelievable Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 Cisse's conversion rate last season was 42% according to this analysis: http://www.eplindex.com/14273/best-premier-league-striker-opta-stats-analysis.html It was bound to drop over the length of a full season, but it would be interesting to see just how much it's gone down. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lotus Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 A far bigger problem has been an absense of goals from else where in the team (from open play). Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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