Joelinton: will not play against Everton (Howe)

[TRon]

11 minutes ago, gbandit said:

It’s not just his passion. He’s a phenomenal athlete, he bullies oppositions like few people can and wins the ball back better than pretty much anyone in the league. He’s weak in front of goal but I think his link up play and short passing is easily good enough. Finding a player who has his defensive attributes or even close to them will be extremely difficult if we want to upgrade on his ability going forwards as well 

 

I do agree with this, but if we are not going to sell depreciating assets, then I guess we can just keep on buying and hope the FFP/PSR bullshit won't pull us up on it.

[BonesJones]

Would suck to sell him because his story is not to dissimilar to the club in terms of the rise from shitness to quality. In the role required of him he's a bully, so can't really complain, I don't think there's massive pressure on him to score or assist. His ability when fit to win second balls, I'd guess has been one of the top stats wise. Which works well with our pressing game (when we're not knackered), as there's lot of second balls to be won.

 

He's great at covering for Burn when defending which frees Gordon up more as an outlet. Has weaknesses obviously but we would lose some extremely effective strengths for our system, and finding a player to replace him that can pass and shoot considerably better without splashing huge money is not easy.

[duo]

2 hours ago, Shearergol said:

We love joelinton’s passion, but we could upgrade him by signing someone who could either pass or shoot.

When he is on song - we are on song. Our stop / start season has much to do with him being injured for a lot of it.  He is crucial to the way Eddie wants us to play. Very few players like him.

[Kid Icarus]

As per the Schär song, every needs a Joelinton. You get a creative mid in addition to him, not by losing him.

[Shearergol]

8 hours ago, Kid Icarus said:

As per the Schär song, every needs a Joelinton. You get a creative mid in addition to him, not by losing him.

 

Which in a non-FFP world is absolutely correct. Not sure how we fund that technical player though? 

[Johny4317]

17 hours ago, Jagten said:

This is probably a stretch, given he can’t really pass.

His pass % isn’t as bad as you think, slightly less than a Rodri, same as a Mac Allister and more than an Onana! He’s a solid midfielder who makes us look miles better when he’s playing 

[Jagten]

26 minutes ago, Johny4317 said:

His pass % isn’t as bad as you think, slightly less than a Rodri, same as a Mac Allister and more than an Onana! He’s a solid midfielder who makes us look miles better when he’s playing 

Passing % isn’t a good way to evaluate this. Generally, you need some model of his passing “value”. For example, Statsbomb use their “On Ball Value” model (OBV), which aims to describe the downstream xG delta arising from an action (in this case, whenever Joelinton passes the ball). Ignoring the Onana overlay, his passing OBV is close to the worst in the league

 

 

 

Edited January 29, 2024 by Jagten

[Nucasol]

5 minutes ago, Jagten said:

Passing % isn’t a good way to evaluate this. Generally, you need some model of his passing “value”. For example, Statsbomb use their “On Ball Value” model (OBV), which aims to describe the downstream xG delta arising from an action (in this case, whenever Joelinton passes the ball). Ignoring the Onana overlay, his passing OBV is close to the worst in the league

 

 

 

 

Statsbomb

 

[Ghandis Flip-Flop]

10 minutes ago, Jagten said:

Passing % isn’t a good way to evaluate this. Generally, you need some model of his passing “value”. For example, Statsbomb use their “On Ball Value” model (OBV), which aims to describe the downstream xG delta arising from an action (in this case, whenever Joelinton passes the ball). Ignoring the Onana overlay, his passing OBV is close to the worst in the league

 

 

 

 

Fantasy football has a great deal to answer for, letting stats obsessed knobheads show their face in public, rather than witter away in their parents basement. Just a general observation rather than anything  aimed at yourself Jagten btw.

 

And whilst I agree Joelinton's passing isn’t his greatest attribute, you’re obviously watching a different league to me, if you think he’s one of the worst passers in it.

 

It’s also not his main purpose in the team and there are plenty of other metrics where he's was In the 90th percentile across all of Europe's major leagues.

 

 

[Jagten]

6 minutes ago, Ghandis Flip-Flop said:

Fantasy football has a great deal to answer for, letting stats obsessed knobheads show their face in public, rather than witter away in their parents basement. Just a general observation rather than anything  aimed at yourself Jagten btw.

 

And whilst I agree Joelinton's passing isn’t his greatest attribute, you’re obviously watching a different league to me, if you think he’s one of the worst passers in it.

 

It’s also not his main purpose in the team and there are plenty of other metrics where he's was In the 90th percentile across all of Europe's major leagues.

Inferring latent quantities from noisy data is an extremely valuable skill, common to basically everywhere that matters, which can very definitely afford you at least your own basement. 
 

I think Joelinton is one of the worst starting PL central midfielders when it comes to passing, yes. His out-of-possession game is good and has suited us very well however. 

[Colos Short and Curlies]

Never mind FFP, this page is everything that is taking the fun out of football.

 

just watch it with your own eyes, get totally partisan about your own players and how good they are and shit over everyone else’s, no matter how good they actually are. Bonus points for having an unwavering hatred of players from a particular team (like Liverpool)

 

who gives a flying monkeys about these stats. do you enjoy watching someone play and on the eye test do they make the team better.

 

leave the boring stats analysis to the back room teams and the manager 

[bobbydazzla]

I can't enjoy us winning these days because I find myself worrying if our xG is poor and Bruno's heat map shows he was playing as a false 8, pivoting with a 6 and his pass accuracy was lower than anticipated given the %'s achieved by his peer group from all top flight clubs across Europe

 

I know we won at Fulham, but in my opinion most of the stats show it was technically a loss. So I didn't celebrate and spent all day yesterday poring over my spreadsheets with a furrowed brow. 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 29, 2024 by bobbydazzla

[Jimburst]

Stats are good, stop being intimidated by new stuff ya pansies.

 

Everyone knows big Joe isn't an incisive passer. You can tell from the eye test. Those same statsbomb numbers show he's a monster defensively and you can see that too.

[Jagten]

13 minutes ago, bobbydazzla said:

I can't enjoy us winning these days because I find myself worrying if our xG is poor and Bruno's heat map shows he was playing as a false 8, pivoting with a 6 and his pass accuracy was lower than anticipated given the %'s achieved by his peer group from all top flight clubs across Europe

 

I know we won at Fulham, but in my opinion most of the stats show it was technically a loss. So I didn't celebrate and spent all day yesterday poring over my spreadsheets with a furrowed brow. 

Most free analysis is shit, most people interpreting it don't know what they're doing. I'd recommend feeling however you want, and I would probably be less inclined to engage if I didn't understand the basics of linear models. Enjoy the win, and don't use a spreadsheet. 

[bobbydazzla]

VAR, Stats, FPP and LED advertising boards are parts of the modern game that need reining in. They've gone past the point of curiosity and into something far more demoralising

 

Football is about passion, bias, irrational love, irrational hatred, a little bit of spunk dribbling into the y-fronts when we score a last minute winner, drowning sorrows with our comrades when we lose to those scouse wankers again

 

It's not about 1mm of a boot being ahead of the defenders leg in a VAR review, selling academy talent to balance the books, having hair loss clinics flashed at you every 2 minutes or obsessing over player data numbers that only a scout or performance analyst actually needs to be arsed about

 

 

[TheBrownBottle]

26 minutes ago, bobbydazzla said:

 

 

It's not about 1mm of a boot being ahead of the defenders leg in a VAR review, selling academy talent to balance the books, having hair loss clinics flashed at you every 2 minutes or obsessing over player data numbers that only a scout or performance analyst actually needs to be arsed about

 

 

Parklife!

[TheBrownBottle]

56 minutes ago, Jagten said:

Most free analysis is shit, most people interpreting it don't know what they're doing. I'd recommend feeling however you want, and I would probably be less inclined to engage if I didn't understand the basics of linear models. Enjoy the win, and don't use a spreadsheet. 

The problem remains that football doesn’t naturally lend itself to this sort of detailed data-crunching.  It is far too open to interpretation in terms of analysis.  Most of it is just Charles Hughes nonsense on steroids, and English football is only just crawling out from under his shadow.  

[Coffee_Johnny]

Just now, TheBrownBottle said:

The problem remains that football doesn’t naturally lend itself to this sort of detailed data-crunching.  It is far too open to interpretation in terms of analysis.  Most of it is just Charles Hughes nonsense on steroids, and English football is only just crawling out from under his shadow.  

Too many people using stats the way a drunk uses a lamppost, for support instead of illumination. 

[huss9]

1 hour ago, bobbydazzla said:

I can't enjoy us winning these days because I find myself worrying if our xG is poor and Bruno's heat map shows he was playing as a false 8, pivoting with a 6 and his pass accuracy was lower than anticipated given the %'s achieved by his peer group from all top flight clubs across Europe

 

I know we won at Fulham, but in my opinion most of the stats show it was technically a loss. So I didn't celebrate and spent all day yesterday poring over my spreadsheets with a furrowed brow. 

 

 

 

 

 

they could have scored 5 goals dont you know.... if they'd have had a good striker.

[Ghandis Flip-Flop]

2 hours ago, Jagten said:

 

I think Joelinton is one of the worst starting PL central midfielders when it comes to passing, yes. 

How much football do you actually watch to make that assertion? I can honestly say that at least 50% of the midfielders currently plying their trade in the PL are worse than him. But that’s just my eyeball test. It’s worth noting that metrics much like the statistics they’re based on can be manipulated to say pretty much whatever the compiler wants them to highlight.
 

I'd recommend you go back and watch him when he's properly fit, there’s lots of quick intricate passing particularly with Bruno and Willock, often receiving the ball whilst under significant pressure and he generally retains possession. 

 

I'm not saying it’s impossible to improve on him, but I’d argue he isn’t the main issue which requires upgrading in our midfield. In fact when everyone is fit, I’d argue our midfield is Ok, we need better numbers from our wide forwards. The drop off from Gordon this season has been massive.

[Jagten]

42 minutes ago, TheBrownBottle said:

The problem remains that football doesn’t naturally lend itself to this sort of detailed data-crunching.  It is far too open to interpretation in terms of analysis.  Most of it is just Charles Hughes nonsense on steroids, and English football is only just crawling out from under his shadow.  

It's hard, for sure, but I don't agree with this. That said, it certainly doesn't lend itself well to the gen pop analysing a bunch of closed-source proprietary metrics. Inferring things like xG and its derivatives requires a model, which requires assumptions and skill. These are PhD-level questions, and not ones most people can answer, so I understand the frustration when they are beyond even most advocates.  

[TheBrownBottle]

39 minutes ago, Jagten said:

It's hard, for sure, but I don't agree with this. That said, it certainly doesn't lend itself well to the gen pop analysing a bunch of closed-source proprietary metrics. Inferring things like xG and its derivatives requires a model, which requires assumptions and skill. These are PhD-level questions, and not ones most people can answer, so I understand the frustration when they are beyond even most advocates.  

I wouldn’t argue that.  But it’s tiresome reading the Twitter stat brigade using it to build cases for or against players.  No issues with someone who actually deals in statistical analysis for a living moonlighting in football

[bobbydazzla]

The football world needs to be less like Lawrence Logic and more like Billy The Fish 

 

 

Edited January 29, 2024 by bobbydazzla

[TRon]

15 hours ago, Ghandis Flip-Flop said:

How much football do you actually watch to make that assertion? I can honestly say that at least 50% of the midfielders currently plying their trade in the PL are worse than him. But that’s just my eyeball test. It’s worth noting that metrics much like the statistics they’re based on can be manipulated to say pretty much whatever the compiler wants them to highlight.
 

I'd recommend you go back and watch him when he's properly fit, there’s lots of quick intricate passing particularly with Bruno and Willock, often receiving the ball whilst under significant pressure and he generally retains possession. 

 

I'm not saying it’s impossible to improve on him, but I’d argue he isn’t the main issue which requires upgrading in our midfield. In fact when everyone is fit, I’d argue our midfield is Ok, we need better numbers from our wide forwards. The drop off from Gordon this season has been massive.

 

 

His close control is a lot better than he gets credit for mind. I've always liked him as a player for that reason, but if we are trying to reach elite level, he's not that. Unfortunately he's one of our saleable assets so if we want to keep progressing I could see him getting sold in the summer with only a year left on his contract.

[timeEd32]

22 hours ago, Jagten said:

Passing % isn’t a good way to evaluate this. Generally, you need some model of his passing “value”. For example, Statsbomb use their “On Ball Value” model (OBV), which aims to describe the downstream xG delta arising from an action (in this case, whenever Joelinton passes the ball). Ignoring the Onana overlay, his passing OBV is close to the worst in the league

 

 

 

 

 

Kind of confused why you're only looking at his passing contributions. He's obviously not De Bruyne.

 

Despite the fact he's a negative passer and an average dribbler, his OBV is 94th percentile largely because his defensive action OBV is 99th percentile. He offers something you will not find just about anywhere else. And per Statsbomb, defensive action OBV doesn't just mean he's cleaning things up in our half of the pitch: "some defensive actions higher up the field could add value by making their team more likely to score, and the player will be credited as such."

 

I think these stats are quite representative of who Joelinton is and why he's been so important for us. The perfect player does not exist and we're unlikely to get players without flaws, so in that case give me the one who is elite at something.