Eddie Howe

[The Bonk]

4 minutes ago, Theregulars said:

I think a lot of it is football being a game of such fine margins. When your confidence is high and momentum with you, things seem to “go your way” - I reckon there’s a psychology to it: taking risks, feeling energised, truly believing and trusting in something so there’s no doubt about what you’re going to do. It then seems like you’re winning the margins.
 

That momentum and confidence is so easily interrupted by circumstances; it’s so delicate - then you don’t win as much at the margins because you’re not taking risks or believing and don’t have that going energy. 
 

The end outcome is massive because it’s such an intensely competitive game. So I don’t even think it’s “over” or “under” achieving; just more circumstances have favoured and then not favoured us and we’ve had and not had momentum. 

 

I can therefore only remain of the opinion that there’s so much supervening and extenuating circumstance to this season - not to write it off; I think below 7th and no silverware would be disappointing and below my own ambitions. 
 

The nature of those extenuating circumstances also means their impact is still being felt now. 
 

Maybe it is a flaw in how he trains and plays, maybe other teams have had time to counter and plan, maybe we just really benefitted from few injuries and more coaching time, maybe it’s a bit of everything… I just don’t see much of a plausible argument that he should take more than a small amount of blame.

 

I think the comparisons with Manchester United are also weird: they have a much larger squad and much more financial resource / pulling power / (IMO) corrupting power. 

 

https://www.nufc.co.uk/news/latest-news/newcastle-united-appoint-dr-ian-mitchell-as-head-of-psychology/

Can we blame this guy?  

[TBG]

Folk talk about being in 10th like we're cut a drift.

 

Win on Saturday with other results going our way and we finish the weekend in 7th. 

 

Europe still on then or? 

 

 

[sushimonster85]

Didn't get a definitive answer to this the other day, but I believe Liverpool win the League Cup would drop the lowest European spot in the league (conference league) to 8th. That's assuming the PL gets the extra CL spot, which is looking likely. Not over by a long shot. 

[Jack27]

https://x.com/cfbayern/status/1762847517715136613?s=46&t=qch8y64njTIa-YpWt4BfqA
 

I don’t know if this is the right thread for this but what 

[Ronaldo]

4 hours ago, Theregulars said:

I don’t disagree with the sentiment but 3/4 of those players have missed significant time this season with injury. 

Not relevant to last season.

[365]

He is the most respected manager since Robson. If he manages to miraculously get us to win the FA cup, he will be a legend forever. 

[Fezzle]

37 minutes ago, TBG said:

Folk talk about being in 10th like we're cut a drift.

 

Win on Saturday with other results going our way and we finish the weekend in 7th. 

 

Europe still on then or? 

 

 

Na would be a blip and normal downward service will resume next game. Some on here would probably be gutted if we won the way they go on every day

[nufc123]

11 minutes ago, Fezzle said:

Na would be a blip and normal downward service will resume next game. Some on here would probably be gutted if we won the way they go on every day

Weird thing to say.

[The College Dropout]

47 minutes ago, Theregulars said:

I think a lot of it is football being a game of such fine margins. When your confidence is high and momentum with you, things seem to “go your way” - I reckon there’s a psychology to it: taking risks, feeling energised, truly believing and trusting in something so there’s no doubt about what you’re going to do. It then seems like you’re winning the margins.
 

That momentum and confidence is so easily interrupted by circumstances; it’s so delicate - then you don’t win as much at the margins because you’re not taking risks or believing and don’t have that going energy. 
 

The end outcome is massive because it’s such an intensely competitive game. So I don’t even think it’s “over” or “under” achieving; just more circumstances have favoured and then not favoured us and we’ve had and not had momentum. 

 

I can therefore only remain of the opinion that there’s so much supervening and extenuating circumstance to this season - not to write it off; I think below 7th and no silverware would be disappointing and below my own ambitions. 
 

The nature of those extenuating circumstances also means their impact is still being felt now. 
 

Maybe it is a flaw in how he trains and plays, maybe other teams have had time to counter and plan, maybe we just really benefitted from few injuries and more coaching time, maybe it’s a bit of everything… I just don’t see much of a plausible argument that he should take more than a small amount of blame.

 

I think the comparisons with Manchester United are also weird: they have a much larger squad and much more financial resource / pulling power / (IMO) corrupting power. 

I agree with lots of this and disagree with lots of this.

 

Agree with everything about confidence and fine margins. But that is elite sport. In any elite sport, compounding fine margins define over and under-performance.

 

Again in any elite sport but really any profession. Anyone leading/managing a team or programme has to take responsibility for its performance. Even Howe wouldn't claim he has a small amount of responsibility of how things have turned out so far. I'm not suggesting that's the end of the world and he must be sacked or anything. His job is judged by results and he definitely holds himself to account. Because you rate and like him - it doesn't mean you should absolve him of his contributions. It's him when it works but not him when it doesn't? Life doesn't work like that. You know that.

 

Man U comparisons are valid. They have the 4th highest wage bill in the league. Anything below 4th/5th is an underperformance. Aston Villa are likely to have played the whole season without their equivalent of Schar & Willock. And they will play the rest of the season without their equivalent of Lascelles, Joelinton & Burn. There's no excuse for Man U to finish below them outside of underperformance by squad/management/leadership and the fans already accept the leadership has underperformed. We should end the season closer to Villa than we are now both in terms of points and position.

[The College Dropout]

41 minutes ago, sushimonster85 said:

Didn't get a definitive answer to this the other day, but I believe Liverpool win the League Cup would drop the lowest European spot in the league (conference league) to 8th. That's assuming the PL gets the extra CL spot, which is looking likely. Not over by a long shot. 

UEFA need to confirm maximum allowance but this is the assumption.

 

It gets sticky if Villa win Conference or Brighton win Europa.

[sushimonster85]

1 minute ago, The College Dropout said:

It gets sticky if Villa win Conference or Brighton win Europa.

 

And really Villa have no excuse not to win the Conference League. To be honest Brighton & West Ham will be among the favourites for Europa.

[timeEd32]

2 hours ago, The College Dropout said:

Tonali - can argue all day about if they should've known. Spending so much money on one player is always a massive risk. 

Barnes - think we should've got a creative RW.  Still expect to be a good signing.

Tino - great signing on paper.. needed more buy-in from the manager IMO

Hall - well..

 

There's lots of ways the window could've gone. Could've tried spreading funds more. 

 

Mine is Kieran Maguire. Look him up on X. I've shared the precise post elsewhere on the board.

 

He uses clubs latest public financial accounts. Most haven't been released for 2023.

 

What's your source?

 

 

 

 

Kieran is great, but there's a couple problems in this comparison. Caveat that no source is perfect and I trust Kieran more than anyone, but I think even he'd agree with the following:

• Only 6 of the 20 clubs include 2022/23 numbers in what you linked so it's not yet a perfect comparison. Villa's wages from 21/22 to now will have increased considerably as one example.
• Player contracts are heavily incentivized with various bonuses and our 2022/23 accounts include Champions League bonuses, so those numbers are inflated from our 'base' wages. 
  • This is called out in our accounts: "Staff costs increased £16.5m ... the main factors being higher merit-based bonuses for the playing squad, team management, and club staff as a result of the club's 4th placed finish..."
• Most clubs don't separate out players from other staff in their accounts so you're getting full club wages. Since this is generally apples to apples it's fine, except the next part of that line from our accounts is "...along with the increase of c100 employees across the club as the build out continues across football operations, commercial teams, executive and central support functions."
  • Obviously players wages are the main driving force, but we have been adding a lot of staff that are mostly not helping us today. We've added around £2.5m in executive team pay since the Charnley days, which is basically a squad player.

That said, we're probably 7th or 8th. I'd put us in a trio with Villa and West Ham, who aren't miles behind and also added to their wage bill this year. Four points currently separate 7th-11th and I'd guess that group stays pretty tight. I'd love for us to qualify for Europe, but given what we've dealt with I'm not going to freak out if we finish a handful of points shy.

 

[The College Dropout]

9 minutes ago, sushimonster85 said:

 

And really Villa have no excuse not to win the Conference League. To be honest Brighton & West Ham will be among the favourites for Europa.

Villa do have a lot of long-term injuries.

 

They'll do well to hold onto 4th/5th.

[Fezzle]

24 minutes ago, nufc123 said:

Weird thing to say.

Seriously? Of the hundreds of absolutely ridiculous posts in this thread thats your weird threshold.......

[TRC]

1 hour ago, Jack27 said:

https://x.com/cfbayern/status/1762847517715136613?s=46&t=qch8y64njTIa-YpWt4BfqA
 

I don’t know if this is the right thread for this but what 

Surprised this has been ignored, would be a great appointment. Thanks for the service Eddie, but Nagelsmann would be a serious appointment. Semi reliable source too, or we are being used for leverage for Nagelsman to get the Man U or Liverpool job?

[Nucasol]

27 minutes ago, The College Dropout said:

UEFA need to confirm maximum allowance but this is the assumption.

 

It gets sticky if Villa win Conference or Brighton win Europa.

Can’t see Brighton winning it, the injuries are now racking up.

[The College Dropout]

18 minutes ago, timeEd32 said:

 

Kieran is great, but there's a couple problems in this comparison. Caveat that no source is perfect and I trust Kieran more than anyone, but I think even he'd agree with the following:

• Only 6 of the 20 clubs include 2022/23 numbers in what you linked so it's not yet a perfect comparison. Villa's wages from 21/22 to now will have increased considerably as one example.
• Player contracts are heavily incentivized with various bonuses and our 2022/23 accounts include Champions League bonuses, so those numbers are inflated from our 'base' wages. 
  • This is called out in our accounts: "Staff costs increased £16.5m ... the main factors being higher merit-based bonuses for the playing squad, team management, and club staff as a result of the club's 4th placed finish..."
• Most clubs don't separate out players from other staff in their accounts so you're getting full club wages. Since this is generally apples to apples it's fine, except the next part of that line from our accounts is "...along with the increase of c100 employees across the club as the build out continues across football operations, commercial teams, executive and central support functions."
  • Obviously players wages are the main driving force, but we have been adding a lot of staff that are mostly not helping us today. We've added around £2.5m in executive team pay since the Charnley days, which is basically a squad player.

That said, we're probably 7th or 8th. I'd put us in a trio with Villa and West Ham, who aren't miles behind and also added to their wage bill this year. Four points currently separate 7th-11th and I'd guess that group stays pretty tight. I'd love for us to qualify for Europe, but given what we've dealt with I'm not going to freak out if we finish a handful of points shy.

 

1. I agree with this - which is why I didn't reference Villa in particular as I assume their wages have increased a lot. West Ham's like-for-like I think is significant. The difference to West Ham is £50m. That's the salary for Isak, Botman, Bruno, Tonali - bonuses and all. The gap to Villa will be smaller I'm sure. For comparison, an extra £50m puts us above Spurs and in league with Arsenal. We are in a different league in wages to West Ham, Brighton and Wolves. Finishing below 1 of them... ok. But all 3? That's a bad season.

2. This is a fair point. Those bonuses were earned as meritocratically as possible though.

3. I'm using this to judge the whole club's performance. Players, staff, management, and leadership. It's not just Howe. Those people are meant to eventually add value on the grass through better scouting, data analysis, injury prevention, psychonalysis etc. And again it's like for like.

 

My point isn't to say Howe is a failure and must be sacked. But if we finish 9th or below - it's a bad season and an underperformance. I still think we finish 7th.

 

The biggest issue with Kieran's data for me is that it's always a window or two behind the current state. 

 

 

Edited February 28 by The College Dropout

[nufc123]

7 minutes ago, Fezzle said:

Seriously? Of the hundreds of absolutely ridiculous posts in this thread thats your weird threshold.......

Because they want this or that for the manager they want the team to lose? Get out.

[The College Dropout]

1 minute ago, Nucasol said:

Can’t see Brighton winning it, the injuries are now racking up.

It's Liverpool's to lose. They are heavy favourites. It's just an example.

[timeEd32]

2 minutes ago, The College Dropout said:

1. I agree with this - which is why I didn't reference Villa in particular as I assume their wages have increased a lot. West Ham's like-for-like I think is significant. The difference to West Ham is £50m. That's the salary for Isak, Botman, Bruno, Tonali - bonuses and all. The gap to Villa will be smaller I'm sure. For comparison, an extra £50m puts us above Spurs and in league with Arsenal.

2. This is a fair point. Those bonuses were earned as meritocratically as possible though.

3. I'm using this to judge the whole club's performance. Players, staff, management, and leadership. It's not just Howe. Those people are meant to eventually add value on the grass through better scouting, data analysis, injury prevention, psychonalysis etc. And again it's like for like.

 

My point isn't to say Howe is a failure and must be sacked. But if we finish 9th or below - it's a bad season and an underperformance. I still think we finish 7th.

 

The biggest issue with Kieran's data for me is that it's always a window or two behind the current state. 

 

All fair. I think really the only place you and I differ greatly is on how much latitude to give for the injuries. 

[sushimonster85]

That Falk bloke is definitely not a semi-reliable source.

[Coffee_Johnny]

3 hours ago, Colos Short and Curlies said:

there’s another part to that in that maybe Eddies strength is in taking a club at rock bottom and building it up, but then isn’t the one who sustains and adds the cherry.

 

they are different skill sets and have different pressures. People often say a Mourinho or Ancellotti wouldn’t do well at a Bournemouth, and they are probably right but they are 2 of the best at managing the big clubs 

Ok, but it just sounds like another complicated theory built on dodgy assumptions. Not sure why the simple we are/have been massively stretched injury/availability wise and whilst we have players returning they’re evidently not up to full speed and we are particularly lacking energy and steel in the middle. Lots of words in that sentence but it’s a pretty assumption-free observation. 

[Mattoon]

I think people are writing off fatigue as an excuse and completely overlooking the long term effects of burnout. Yes, we might be playing a lot less games now and only once a week and we've got players coming back from injury to help with rotation. But these players aren't going to hit the ground running and the 11 that played every minute of every game for 2 months won't recover from burnout overnight, the physiological and psychological effects of exhaustion can take months to recover from, sometimes as long as a year. I think we'll see a slow improvement but I don't think we'll see a full recovery any time soon.

[SUPERTOON]

 

[timeEd32]

11 minutes ago, Mattoon said:

I think people are writing off fatigue as an excuse and completely overlooking the long term effects of burnout. Yes, we might be playing a lot less games now and only once a week and we've got players coming back from injury to help with rotation. But these players aren't going to hit the ground running and the 11 that played every minute of every game for 2 months won't recover from burnout overnight, the physiological and psychological effects of exhaustion can take months to recover from, sometimes as long as a year. I think we'll see a slow improvement but I don't think we'll see a full recovery any time soon.

 

I'm 100% with you on this. It will get branded as an excuse, which I guess it kind of is. But my new least favorite genre of posts are the ones that act like a magic switch has been flipped along with those that seem to imply fatigue issues were invented as a means to give Eddie a pass.

 

"We were told fatigue was the reason for December..." <--- You shouldn't need to be told anything. Open your eyes

 

"We have players back, what's the excuse now?" <--- Umm, we're still missing critical ones and the impact of the last few months doesn't just disappear overnight.

"I guess 30 minutes of extra time will be the excuse for the next month." <---