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The Europeometer™ (2023/24) - permutations in O.P.


Rich

The TopFourometer™ (2023/24)  

619 members have voted

  1. 1. How likely are we to finish top four this season? 0 = nee chance, 5 = can’t call it, 10 = nailed on marra



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14 hours ago, RodneyCisse said:

Not sure arsenal are as good this season, havertz proper upsets their balance and they’re starting with nketiah  over Jesus for some mad reason.

Jesus has started the last two since returning from minor knee surgery. Not entirely sure what you expect them to do ffs

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On 25/09/2023 at 17:26, The Prophet said:

Aton Villa (h) 5-1 v 4-0 

City (a) 1-0 v 2-0

Liverpool (h) 1-2 v 0-2

Brighton (a) 3-1 v 0-0

Brentford home (h) 1-0 v 5-1

Sheffield United (Leeds) (a) 0-8 v 2-2

Burnley (Leicester) (h) 2-0 v 0-0

 

+3 points, +7 goal difference.

 

 

 

Edited by The Prophet

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On 27/09/2023 at 01:36, Skeletor said:

Will stick my neck on the line and say Spurs are in a false position right now and will fall away in Spurs like fashion again.

Not having European football is a massive advantage.   
 

Maddison is him. Son is him.  Atmosphere around the club is best it’s been in a long time. 
 

Not being in the CL is massive for Liverpool as well. 

 

 

Edited by The College Dropout

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On 27/09/2023 at 01:36, Skeletor said:

Will stick my neck on the line and say Spurs are in a false position right now and will fall away in Spurs like fashion again.

I agree, they aren't all that, couple of injuries and they're in trouble, have no depth. Fancy us to finish above them for sure.

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Think Spurs will continue to impress all season. Touch and go with Man Utd. A couple more bad results and things start to turn very sour. Liverpool look nailed on, so I think we will be fighting it out with Villa and Brighton.

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That Liverpool defeat is still a kick in the pants. If only we'd won that, as we should have, we'd be up in fourth place now with them down in 7th.

 

Ah well, hopefully we roll them over at Anfield - that's probably now the game I'm most looking forward to.

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Update on tracker for sixth place finish (62 points). Assumptions made are in Spoiler below. 

Spoiler

Assuming we are aiming for a top six season, then taking 6th as a minimum target, here is a way of gauging when we will, on average, pick-up the 62 points likely to be required (average for PL).

Categorising the teams (mainly on last season’s position) into four tiers and predicting we will pick-up (rounded-up) 9pts from T1 (all tiers ten games except 8 in Tier 1), 16 pts from Tier 2, 18pts from T3, and 19pts from T4 teams. 

Tier 1: 8 games 24 pts available, 9 predcited (1 win 2 draws 1 loss at H; 1 win 1 draw 2 losses Away = 5pts + 4 = 9pts). So, 1.25ppg at Home and 1.0ppg Away.

Man City

Arsenal

Man Utd

NUFC

Liverpool

Tier 2: 10 games 30 pts available, 16pts predicted (3 wins 1 draw 1 loss at Home; 2 wins, 0  draw, 3 losses Away =10 +6pts). So, 2.0ppg at Home  and 1.2 ppg Away

Brighton 

Aston Villa

Spurs

Brentford

Chelsea

Tier 3: 10 games 30 pts available, 18pts predicted (3 wins 1 draw 1 loss at H; 2 wins 2 draws 1 loss Away= 10+8pts). So, 2.0ppg at H ome and 1.6ppg Away.

Palace

Fulham

Wolves

West Ham

Bournemouh

Tier 4 10 games 30 pts available, 19pts predicted (3 wins and 2 draws at Home; 2 wins 2 draws 1 loss Away= 11+8pts) . So, 2.2ppg at H and 1.6ppg Away .

Forest

Everton

Burnley

Sheffield Utd

Luton 

Remember this is a prediction for 6th.  Taking into account the relative difficulty of games would mean the following pattern of picking up points at different stages of the season.  The average points per month for the top five is also shown, just using number of games per month. I'll correct this as the games inevitably get moved around. The points per match are just indicative, it’s the points per month which will show how on track we are. 

image001.thumb.png.a6b676c470f17013a1a3d6dd36c74797.pngIn short, taking account of relative difficulty of the games as they fall across the season, we are on track for the average points total for a fifth place finish (12). 11 points, at end of September equates to a fourth place finish. 

 

 

Edited by Coffee_Johnny

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Liverpool can challenge for the title.  They’ve got the best attack in the league and tremendous depth in attack.  
 

Man City and Arsenal are shoe-ins too obvs.  
 

All 3 of those could get 80+ points. 
 

Spurs were awful last season and finished on 60 points. They were also in the CL. If they can keep Son and Maddison fit they’ve got a good chance of getting 70+ points this season. They’ve got a positive atmosphere.  It looks like they’ve added 3-4 good additions to the squad.  
 

I think Spurs are a bigger threat than Brighton and Villa (and West Ham). those have to be better than they’ve ever been in the PL before and have European football to contend with. All 3 have the potential to go deep.  Getting 70+ points for the first time in the PL And 10+ games in Europe until April I think is beyond them. 

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10 minutes ago, The College Dropout said:

Liverpool can challenge for the title.  They’ve got the best attack in the league and tremendous depth in attack.  
 

Man City and Arsenal are shoe-ins too obvs.  
 

All 3 of those could get 80+ points. 
 

Spurs were awful last season and finished on 60 points. They were also in the CL. If they can keep Son and Maddison fit they’ve got a good chance of getting 70+ points this season. They’ve got a positive atmosphere.  It looks like they’ve added 3-4 good additions to the squad.  
 

I think Spurs are a bigger threat than Brighton and Villa (and West Ham). those have to be better than they’ve ever been in the PL before and have European football to contend with. All 3 have the potential to go deep.  Getting 70+ points for the first time in the PL And 10+ games in Europe until April I think is beyond them. 

Completely agree with this.

 

If we finish above Spurs we will be in CL IMO. Is 5th CL this year?

 

I expect a fight back from Man Utd, probably post Xmas and possibly post Ten Hag.

 

Right now:

 

City

Liverpool

Arsenal

Spurs/Newcastle 

Spurs/Newcastle

Villa

Brighton

 

Then stick Man Utd in that mix once they have sorted themselves.

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I think we are a better team than last season and even with the extra games can still get a similar amount of points which should be enough for top 5 again.We are still a very very good team and you have to be a good team to beat us. People seem to be getting carried away by Villa after yesterday but both us and Liverpool demolished them.

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29 minutes ago, STM said:

Also, we just need to be in the mix come February. Chances are that our CL campaign won't last that long.

Cmon man. 
 

We’re such a momentum club atm. Positive atmosphere of being in the CL or at least in Europe is worth points to us (hopefully more than the extra games cost us).  

R16 exit to Real Madrid minimum pls. 

 

 

Edited by The College Dropout

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40 minutes ago, Geogaddi said:

I think we are a better team than last season and even with the extra games can still get a similar amount of points which should be enough for top 5 again.We are still a very very good team and you have to be a good team to beat us. People seem to be getting carried away by Villa after yesterday but both us and Liverpool demolished them.

 

Not getting carried away by Villa, but they can very well take a lot of points from the next 5 fixtures. In that case they will be top 3 or 4 after 12 rounds, and then some people will for sure get carried away by them. I'm sure they will fall a bit when they face some tougher fixtures later, but there will be a good feeling around the club if they keep it up the next few games. Can't really look too much into the opening game.

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On 01/10/2023 at 15:33, Erikse said:

 

Not getting carried away by Villa, but they can very well take a lot of points from the next 5 fixtures. In that case they will be top 3 or 4 after 12 rounds, and then some people will for sure get carried away by them. I'm sure they will fall a bit when they face some tougher fixtures later, but there will be a good feeling around the club if they keep it up the next few games. Can't really look too much into the opening game.

There’s part of me that likes that we thumped Villa, Brighton thumped us, and Villa thumped Brighton. Plus we have played Man City twice and had a 1-0 win each. 

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