The Europeometer™ (2023/24) - permutations in O.P.

[Kanji]

4 matches v 6 matches.  

[BonesJones]

3 hours ago, Kanji said:

4 matches v 6 matches.  

 

And if we win those next two games, we're 2 points better off than last season.

[Myleftboot]

9 hours ago, BonesJones said:

 

And if we win those next two games, we're 2 points better off than last season.

Glass half full,I like your style.

[Gazzaschicken]

13 hours ago, BonesJones said:

 

And if we win those next two games, we're 2 points better off than last season.

With harder fixtures played as well.

[Optimistic Nut]

The comeback starts here looking at the scores today. 

[TRon]

15 minutes ago, Optimistic Nut said:

The comeback starts here looking at the scores today. 

 

Just wait until the final whistles go next time Nut.

[CPL]

2 minutes ago, TRon said:

 

Just wait until the final whistles go next time Nut.

Man United still lost at least! 

[TRon]

Just now, CPL said:

Man United still lost at least! 

[54]

For perspective we currently have the exact same record as we did this time last season, same points and same goal difference, and we've also had a harder start.

[Optimistic Nut]

If we win 4 out of 5 between now and Arsenal then we're looking at top 6 going into that game. West Ham the trickiest in there and we should be capable of something. 

 

Then we're going into Arsenal full of confidence. Think we'll see us progress to where we were last season by the time we reach November. 

[Holloway]

We'll finish 3rd this season, and go out of the CL semi on pellas 

[Displayname]

1-2 points behind where we should be considering the games we played. 

 

Men City is an auto-loss and 6 points from Villa, Liverpool, Brighton and Brentford is ok.

Get on a good run now pls.

[Optimistic Nut]

One win in the next 2 brings us back on par with last season's head-to-heads. 4 or more points and we're better off.

[NSG]

That loss to Liverpool is going to annoy me all season ffs. Win that and it’s gone from being an average start to the season to an excellent one.

[Displayname]

1 minute ago, Optimistic Nut said:

One win in the next 2 brings us back on par with last season's head-to-heads. 4 or more points and we're better off.

Personally I think its rather silly looking so much at this head to head thing.

[Optimistic Nut]

3 minutes ago, Displayname said:

Personally I think its rather silly looking so much at this head to head thing.

 

I think it's fair to see where we are compared to the same opposition a season on? We're coming into a few games in the next 5 where last season we couldn't break down poor to average opposition (two relegated clubs and Palace). It'll be interesting to see if the problems of breaking these down are still here or if we've progressed and can finish them off this time. 

 

Last season we drew far too many of these, if this season them problems are that we're still not as good as Liverpool and Man City, still prone to the odd poor performance away to European chasing teams (Villa last season for instance, Brighton this year), but we've put to bed our incapacity to breakdown the poorer sides, then that's a sign of progression and the like-for-like points difference season on season is a fair way to judge.

 

 

Edited September 17, 2023 by Optimistic Nut

[Displayname]

7 minutes ago, Optimistic Nut said:

 

I think it's fair to see where we are compared to the same opposition a season on? We're coming into a few games in the next 5 where last season we couldn't break down poor to average opposition (two relegated clubs and Palace). It'll be interesting to see if the problems of breaking these down are still here or if we've progressed and can finish them off this time. 

 

Last season we drew far too many of these, if this season them problems are that we're still not as good as Liverpool and Man City, still prone to the odd poor performance away to European chasing teams (Villa last season for instance, Brighton this year), but we've put to bed our incapacity to breakdown the poorer sides, then that's a sign of progression and the like-for-like points difference season on season is a fair way to judge.

 

 

 

There will always be outliers in the results of a season. Drawing at home against Palace and Bournemouth is not an okay result just because we did it last year f.ex.

 

There will also be a few result from last year that will be very hard to match, like winning x2 vs Spurs.

 

 

Edited September 17, 2023 by Displayname

[Optimistic Nut]

15 minutes ago, Displayname said:

There will always be outliers in the results of a season. Drawing at home against Palace and Bournemouth is not an okay result just because we did it last year f.ex.

 

There will also be a few result from last year that will be very hard to match, like winning x2 vs Spurs.

 

 

 

 

Which is what will determine if we're top 4 material again and us not being top 4 again. So is a decent way of judging where we are season on season to the clubs around us. 

 

Draws against these clubs won't be good results just because we couldn't beat them last season. If we beat them though, it's a sign something is different to last season.

 

If we go on to lose to Spurs and West Ham away for example, those are signs these are going to be better. If we get to 71 points again we're going to be close to getting where we need to be. I personally think we'll draw a lot less, win 4-5 more and lose 4-5 more and end up not far off 70 points again. 

 

 

Edited September 17, 2023 by Optimistic Nut

[TRon]

13 minutes ago, NSG said:

That loss to Liverpool is going to annoy me all season ffs. Win that and it’s gone from being an average start to the season to an excellent one.

 

I was watching that Liverpool game yesterday, and it was a carbon copy of ours other than Wolves were playing against 11 men for the whole game. They should have had the game dead and buried by half time, the chance where the lad couldn't decide whether to head the ball or kick it when it flashed across the 6 yard box summed it up perfectly. In the end, Wolves just didn't quite believe they were good enough.

 

We have to be humble as well. We got a great result yesterday, but looking at the starting line up we have to remember where some of these players were 18 months ago. Longstaff, Elliott and Burn have all done fantastic jobs but that recent saying we have heard so much is worth considering again: There are levels, and we have no right to expect so much from some of these players considering where they came from.

[black_n_white]

For me finishing top 7 will be fine, any form of European football next season should be the minimum. I think Man City, Liverpool and Arsenal will be clear of everyone by Christmas.

[Optimistic Nut]

26 minutes ago, black_n_white said:

For me finishing top 7 will be fine, any form of European football next season should be the minimum. I think Man City, Liverpool and Arsenal will be clear of everyone by Christmas.

 

Arsenal beating Spurs next week would be handy if we can beat Sheff Utd. Would be nice to start clawing back the gap. 

[CPL]

27 minutes ago, black_n_white said:

For me finishing top 7 will be fine, any form of European football next season should be the minimum. I think Man City, Liverpool and Arsenal will be clear of everyone by Christmas.

I would have to agree. There were a few external factors and us over achieving in us getting to 4th last season. In the sense that people say it is harder to defend your title than winning it, it is certainly similar circumstances with us and getting top 4/5 this season.

 

Despite having a better squad, we have more games and more teams will sit back against us more and be happy with a draw at SJP.

[Gawalls]

1 hour ago, Optimistic Nut said:

 

I think it's fair to see where we are compared to the same opposition a season on? We're coming into a few games in the next 5 where last season we couldn't break down poor to average opposition (two relegated clubs and Palace). It'll be interesting to see if the problems of breaking these down are still here or if we've progressed and can finish them off this time. 

 

Last season we drew far too many of these, if this season them problems are that we're still not as good as Liverpool and Man City, still prone to the odd poor performance away to European chasing teams (Villa last season for instance, Brighton this year), but we've put to bed our incapacity to breakdown the poorer sides, then that's a sign of progression and the like-for-like points difference season on season is a fair way to judge.

 

 

 

Looking at the way Brentford packed the box last night and our lack of shots on target I don’t think we have put to bed our incapacity to breakdown these sides to be honest.

[Optimistic Nut]

Let's see where we are in 5 games. Four equivalent games where we drew against average teams and West Ham away who seem better than they were last year. 

 

I think if we're up on those games at the end of it, it's a sign we've improved. 

[Coffee_Johnny]

Despite all the talk of our poor start, if we win the next two games (Sheff Utd away and Burnley at home), for what my estimate is worth,  we will be above the points total predicted for the end of September, which would be compatible with a sixth place finish (taking into account relative difficulty of games at different stages of the season).