The Europeometer™ (2024/25) - NUFC Qualify for Conference League (at least)

[mosstef]

I think we will get at least 7 points from our away games against Leicester, Villa, Brighton and Arsenal. It's our home form I'm worried about. 

[janpawel]

55 minutes ago, The College Dropout said:

Villa starting to get players back from injury and look to have a very strong squad now. They’ve got options everywhere. 
 

But they will be distracted imo. 
 

we need them to drop points against Forest and us and we should be ok. 
 

At the same time we should get 9 points from the next 3.  It’s our time. 7 minimum. 

Could do with a morale crushing defeat to PSG, like Liverpool did too

[Elma]

2 minutes ago, mosstef said:

I think we will get at least 7 points from our away games against Leicester, Villa, Brighton and Arsenal. It's our home form I'm worried about. 

 

That's a fair point. Eddie seems to have Emery's number (that 3-0 reverse aside), and Arsenal panic whenever they play us now. I'd be hoping for seven from those too.

 

Strangely though, last night was my biggest worry with regard to home games. Palace would be the other one. We seem to turn up for games against the bigger names. Seven from those away games means we can probably afford to go 3-1-1 at home for fifth allowing for a slip up, provided it's only one. 

[mosstef]

25 minutes ago, Elma said:

 

That's a fair point. Eddie seems to have Emery's number (that 3-0 reverse aside), and Arsenal panic whenever they play us now. I'd be hoping for seven from those too.

 

Strangely though, last night was my biggest worry with regard to home games. Palace would be the other one. We seem to turn up for games against the bigger names. Seven from those away games means we can probably afford to go 3-1-1 at home for fifth allowing for a slip up, provided it's only one. 

I definitely also see the home game against Crystal Palace as a bigger worry than the games against Man U and Chelsea. The crowd will also be more up for it against those two.

[The College Dropout]

I think 68 points secures 5th. Villa would need to win 6 games and draw 2 going undefeated. Or win 7 out of 8. In addition to at least 3 massive cup games. Probably 4 all in. They have to be too good imo.  
 

We need to win 6 out of 9. So much more attainable.  Even with our injuries and weaker squad.  
 

My assumption is that a CL campaign will allow us to build a squad closer to the level of Villa in terms of depth. They’ve got a proper CL level squad now too the end of the season.  But still.. it’s a massive ask for them. They are relying on us, City and Chelsea being a bit shit. 

[KDT]

Can Villa afford the fee & wages for Rashford & Asencio? I was under the impression both deals were very much a 6 month rental to see them through to the end of the season. Given the impact they've had they're going to do well to replace them in the summer. 

[Dr.Spaceman]

I'd be amazed if we finished below Villa. If it's because they win all their games then fair play to them, they'll have had one of the greatest run-ins of all time. We're getting another 15 points imo, they'd need to beat at least two from us, Forest, Man City, Bournemouth, Spurs, Man Utd whilst still being in both the CL and the FA Cup. Big ask for them imo but like I say if they manage it then fair play, they'll have absolutely deserved it.

 

 

Edited 22 hours ago by Dr.Spaceman

[The College Dropout]

11 minutes ago, KDT said:

Can Villa afford the fee & wages for Rashford & Asencio? I was under the impression both deals were very much a 6 month rental to see them through to the end of the season. Given the impact they've had they're going to do well to replace them in the summer. 

Without CL football - I suspect no.  Not for fees, same contracts and multiple years. It’s given them a fighting chance of qualifying again and if you were them, you would be disappointed if Villa didn’t qualify for the Europa at a minimum. Either through the league or the cup. 

[The College Dropout]

13 minutes ago, Dr.Spaceman said:

I'd be amazed if we finished below Villa. If it's because they win all their games then fair play to them, they'll have had one of the greatest run-ins of all time. We're getting another 15 points imo, they'd need to beat at least two from us, Forest, Man City, Bournemouth, Spurs, Man Utd whilst still being in both the CL and the FA Cup. Big ask for them imo but like I say if they manage it then fair play, they'll have absolutely deserved it.

 

 

 

I’d be disappointed with only 15 points. We only face 1 team above us.  3 teams around us.  A shit Man U at home between 2 massive games for them. Then Leicester palace Ipswich and Everton. 
 

Anything less than 16 is bad. Should aim for 18. 

[AyeDubbleYoo]

Even with CL you’d think Rashford would have to take an immense pay cut to join Villa. And they’re have to shatter any concept of a wage structure and risk annoying their existing squad quite a lot. 

 

 

Edited 22 hours ago by AyeDubbleYoo

[Dr.Spaceman]

Just now, The College Dropout said:

I’d be disappointed with only 15 points. We only face 1 team above us.  3 teams around us.  A shit Man U at home between 2 massive games for them. Then Leicester palace Ipswich and Everton. 
 

Anything less than 16 is bad. Should aim for 18. 

 

Yeah, I think it'll be 15 minimum, which could be enough to secure 5th. The Villa and Chelsea games are going to be huge.

[Froggy]

Rashford is £40m. I'd imagine we would probably subsidise some of his wage as well if he was to move permanently.

[Groundhog63]

28 minutes ago, Froggy said:

Rashford is £40m. I'd imagine we would probably subsidise some of his wage as well if he was to move permanently.

You never know. The new manager might fancy him back. 

[Froggy]

2 minutes ago, Groundhog63 said:

You never know. The new manager might fancy him back. 

 

[vic]

This article gives us what we need to do...

https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/44372662/how-premier-league-teams-qualify-champions-league-europe

[jigen]

Man City is in. It's a race between Nottingham, Newcastle and Chelsea for two places. You and Nottingham favourites. 

[Fenham Mag]

Just now, jigen said:

Man City is in. It's a race between Nottingham, Newcastle and Chelsea for two places. You and Nottingham favourites. 

 

Wouldn't say Man City are nailed on like. 

[Geogaddi]

Villa beating Forest on Saturday isn't necessarily a bad thing either , we beat Leicester and we are only four behind Forest with a game in hand . 
 

As others have said Villa do have a much better overall squad than us for the run in but they are bound to drop points with the cup distractions so I'm still not worried about them .

 

 

Edited 20 hours ago by Geogaddi

[Smal]

I still think we can pass Forest. They have Villa, Spurs, Palace and West Ham away; and home games against Brentford, Chelsea and Everton which aren’t easy either.

[Stottie]

Opta predict City to get 66, us to get 65 and Chelsea sixth on 63. Villa get 60. They have us as over 60% chance of top five. Click on predicted at this link

https://theanalyst.com/competition/premier-league/table

 

I agree with them and doubt that sixth will get as many as 65 points. Villa would need 17 points from eight games, which they have only managed in one range of eight games, at the very start of the season.

 

Since we play both Villa and Chelsea, avoiding defeat to them will make it harder for them to reach 65. First off though, fingers crossed for a favour from Spurs later on. I'm assuming here of course that City will do whatever and finish above us.

[Ginola14]

Ourselves, Forest and Villa displacing Chelsea, Spurs and MU in the top 6 this season would be very satisfying 

 

Chelsea have been very poor since December, would be nice if Spurs could get a result for a change

 

quite incredible how Spurs are 16 points behind us considering their financial superiority and notions of being a 'big 6' club (at least MU win trophies)

[timeEd32]

We're going to have finished ahead of Spurs twice, Man United twice, Liverpool once, and Chelsea at least once in Eddie's three full seasons. We've also won more trophies than half of the big 6 in that time.

[The College Dropout]

4 hours ago, Smal said:

I still think we can pass Forest. They have Villa, Spurs, Palace and West Ham away; and home games against Brentford, Chelsea and Everton which aren’t easy either.

Points in the bank >>>

 

The only good side you named are Villa, IMO Chelsea have been poor for a long time. I fancy them to win all 3 home games. 3-6 points on the road.

 

Forest will get 12 points minimum which will be enough for 5th at the worst.

 

Maybe we can catch them but I don't care where we finish as long as it's 5th or above.

[TRC]

Lots of swing games. Tonight is one of them Chelsea vs Spurs. We just need to win our next 3 then see where we are at, by then a few teams may have dropped off or pulled away.

[Unbelievable]

47 minutes ago, timeEd32 said:

We're going to have finished ahead of Spurs twice, Man United twice, Liverpool once, and Chelsea at least once in Eddie's three full seasons. We've also won more trophies than half of the big 6 in that time.

People need to take notice of this. This "big six" nonsense is not a static thing. Man U and Spurs being out of CL again, and potentially Chelsea too, will start hurting their commercial and matchday revenue eventually, whereas (should we make it 2/3 years for CL qualification) our commercial profile continues to rise. The likes of Villa and Forest taking "their" places at the main table off them is a great development (as long as we manage to qualify too).