The Europeometer™ (2024/25)

[Cf]

Can only assume people thinking Man Utd are a shoe in for 6th haven't watched them play this season. They're not a good team. 

[mondonewc]

If we finished 6th this season think it's arguably a more impressive season than last year, would be very happy with that, just need to get a bit of a run going. Get Pope back soon, and we can do it. 

[The College Dropout]

I would agree.

 

At this point last season - i as confident 4th would be ours. I wouldn't have taken 5th.

 

Also it might be a little small time but finishing above Man U would be delicious and I believe a first in the PL era. The only team in the football pyramid we've not finished above in the PL era.

 

Man U will end up on 59-61 points. I don't know how or where but they will. We can match them on that.

 

The worst thing about a top 6-7th race is that none of the teams are that good. I don't think any of us are about to win 5 in a row. A 4-game win streak would land it for any of the teams in the running... and that also doesn't seem likely. The type of teams to beat Arsenal at home and lose to Forest at home. Hard to predict game to game.

[TRC]

https://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-premier-league/

 

I have us finishing 7th. I think there is more chance of us finishing 6th than 8th at this point.

[mighty__mag]

Will there be a fifth champions league spot awarded?

 

 

Edited April 8 by mighty__mag
What?

[Froggy]

21 hours ago, El Prontonise said:

 

Lucky is an understatement.

 

Or unlucky, given the amount of injuries we've had. Or does that only apply to teams in black and white? 

[El Prontonise]

6 minutes ago, Froggy said:

 

Or unlucky, given the amount of injuries we've had. Or does that only apply to teams in black and white? 

 

I don't think our injuries are unlucky now, there's clearly something wrong.

[Froggy]

8 minutes ago, El Prontonise said:

I don't think our injuries are unlucky now, there's clearly something wrong.

 

Same to be honest. too many muscle injuries.

 

Could be the fact Ten Hag asks everyone to sprint up and down the pitch 400 times a game. 

[STM]

I have us and Chelsea on the same points going into the final game.

 

Our good goal difference could be crucial.

 

I'm perhaps being a little kind to Chelsea mind, since they couldn't beat SU yesterday.

[The College Dropout]

1 minute ago, STM said:

I have us and Chelsea on the same points going into the final game.

 

Our good goal difference could be crucial.

 

I'm perhaps being a little kind to Chelsea mind, since they couldn't beat SU yesterday.

Chelsea are very random. You can't predict what they will do. They've got results against City, Liverpool, Man U, Spurs etc. and drawn and lost to some dross.

 

Us, Man U... similar teams really. Can score goals but also loose at the back.,

[Dr. TC]

16 minutes ago, The College Dropout said:

Chelsea are very random. You can't predict what they will do. They've got results against City, Liverpool, Man U, Spurs etc. and drawn and lost to some dross.

 

Us, Man U... similar teams really. Can score goals but also loose at the back.,

We have scored almost 50% more goals than man u (65 vs 45). They are insanely lucky to be where they are in the table. 

[The College Dropout]

22 minutes ago, Dr. TC said:

We have scored almost 50% more goals than man u (65 vs 45). They are insanely lucky to be where they are in the table. 

But they are so consistent with the jamminess. I don't expect it to end.

 

Their overperformance of Expected Points is inevitable.

[Froggy]

17 minutes ago, Dr. TC said:

We have scored almost 50% more goals than man u (65 vs 45). They are insanely lucky to be where they are in the table. 

 

There's no luck over a full season. You are where you deserve to be. 

 

You scored 4 goals against Luton and drew the game. Looking at goals scored as a reason why you should be higher is silly. 

[Froggy]

4 minutes ago, The College Dropout said:

But they are so consistent with the jamminess. I don't expect it to end.

 

Their overperformance of Expected Points is inevitable.

 

Expected my bollocks. Do you get less expected points when you have to play 27 different back four combinations in a season or is that ignored. 

[Cf]

10 minutes ago, Froggy said:

 

There's no luck over a full season. You are where you deserve to be. 

 

You scored 4 goals against Luton and drew the game. Looking at goals scored as a reason why you should be higher is silly. 

 

There is luck over a full season like. 38 games is enough to generally have you where you're "supposed" to be but it's still a relatively small sample statistically speaking. 

 

The top 3 have all had excellent seasons. Luck won't be the only factor in who ends up winning it but if they all continue as they are then it will end up being a big contributing factor. 

 

There's more to football than statistics and variance. But it's not an area to fully discount. 

[Ginola14]

while Man U have been badly hit by injuries, they just look like a poorly coached team most of the time and rely on individual brilliance to bail them out over and over without needing to play well 

 

if Bruno Fernandes gets injured for any significant period I think they'll be really screwed

 

I've watched enough of them this season and could probably count on one hand the number of times they've deserved to win

 

most of their jammy wins by one poxy goal too - their gd is pathetic and must be one or the worst ever for a top 6 team at this stage of the season 

 

[timeEd32]

25 minutes ago, Froggy said:

 

There's no luck over a full season. You are where you deserve to be. 

 

You scored 4 goals against Luton and drew the game. Looking at goals scored as a reason why you should be higher is silly. 

 

When you are consistently outperforming your goal difference and all of the underlying stats there is definitely an element of luck / good fortune.

When it's sustained for multiple seasons there is probably also an element of skill in winning games. It's hard to draw where that line is.

[midds]

The 5th place finish under Pardew convinced me that a team can spawn it for a whole season. We got that place and were underwhelming as fuck for most of it, it never happened before and it's not happened since, it was a continuous run of luck/breaks that went in our favour and we won points and games we absolutely shouldn't have. We did win them but it was a false position, there was no foundation to it, it wasn't representative of performances 

[Skeletor]

11 minutes ago, midds said:

The 5th place finish under Pardew convinced me that a team can spawn it for a whole season. We got that place and were underwhelming as fuck for most of it, it never happened before and it's not happened since, it was a continuous run of luck/breaks that went in our favour and we won points and games we absolutely shouldn't have. We did win them but it was a false position, there was no foundation to it, it wasn't representative of performances 

 

Good players still playing as they were originally trained at their previous clubs. The longer they were here and got Pardew'd the more it went tits up.

[Beth]

37 minutes ago, Ginola14 said:

while Man U have been badly hit by injuries, they just look like a poorly coached team most of the time and rely on individual brilliance to bail them out over and over without needing to play well 

 

if Bruno Fernandes gets injured for any significant period I think they'll be really screwed

 

I've watched enough of them this season and could probably count on one hand the number of times they've deserved to win

 

most of their jammy wins by one poxy goal too - their gd is pathetic and must be one or the worst ever for a top 6 team at this stage of the season 

 

Fernandes getting injured would be a good thing for them, he's been dross for months and I think Mount is a better player.

[RodneyCisse]

9 hours ago, Cf said:

Can only assume people thinking Man Utd are a shoe in for 6th haven't watched them play this season. They're not a good team. 

They’re unbelievably lucky.

[leffe186]

2 hours ago, The College Dropout said:

Chelsea are very random. You can't predict what they will do. They've got results against City, Liverpool, Man U, Spurs etc. and drawn and lost to some dross.

 

Us, Man U... similar teams really. Can score goals but also loose at the back.,

Tbf we were pissing all over them before the red cards and the injuries, and nearly got a result with 9 men. They’re not very good, although Palmer and all the penalties might continue to bail them out. 
 

I keep expecting them to go on a run but they keep being a bit shite.

[Dr. TC]

1 hour ago, Froggy said:

 

There's no luck over a full season. You are where you deserve to be. 

 

You scored 4 goals against Luton and drew the game. Looking at goals scored as a reason why you should be higher is silly. 

Oh, I wasn't saying we deserved to be higher, I was just saying we weren't similar. 

[Froggy]

9 minutes ago, Dr. TC said:

Oh, I wasn't saying we deserved to be higher, I was just saying we weren't similar. 

 

I don't mean Newcastle specifically. I just think teams could potentially defend very well and have a lower goals for total than teams around them. 

[Bellars]

I think 62 points, with our goal difference, would get 6th. So 15 points over the last 7 matches.

 

Assuming we take maximum points from Burnely and SU (not guaranteed, but it should be the expectation if we're going to pull it off), we would need 9 points from:

Spurs (h)

Crystal Palace (a)

ManU (a)

Brighton (h)

Brentford (a)

 

Not much room for error... it really may come down to the game at Old Trafford.