NUFC Transfer Rumours

[1964]

Just now, Ben said:

Did the Man City case about sponsorship ever get a result ? 

I think Man City have the legal team to make them almost above the law.  Refute, deny, delay so they can largely do as they please

[Ben]

Just now, 1964 said:

I think Man City have the legal team to make them almost above the law.  Refute, deny, delay so they can largely do as they please

 

True but we were expecting a verdict weeks ago that would determine if the Saudis could sponsor us through their own companies and as far as I can tell we've heard nowt

[toon25]

Some of the local Forest rags reckon we bid 50 million for Elanga on Friday

[Zero]

24 minutes ago, The College Dropout said:

I disagree that PSR requires specialist footballing knowledge. It’s just accounting. It’s business more than anything.  That’s on the ownership and the CEO more than anyone else. 
 

If anything football people (without a finance or business school background) might struggle to understand it. When people say selling x player for £50m pays for 5 £50m signings on 5 year deals. Thats technically true for one year but shows a naive understanding of the rules. You then need to have another £50m the next season and wages for 5 players in both seasons. 
 

I don’t think anyone knew how serious the ramifications would be so that’s a legitimate excuse of sorts. They went straight for points deductions.  Not fines or transfer bans. 

No, TCD you got it wrong. 
1. yes, the PSR issue looks like purely an accounting stuff, that you can calculate the capacity / black hole by accounting / amortization / P&L etc, BUT

 

2. The real market valuation of the player, their progress, their performance on the pitch, their value change after incidents, value change close to end of contract etc are purely industry knowledge.

 

Just like Chelsea. They are now trying to sell those fringe players at a price even higher than their acquisition fees. We all know it won’t happen, because we have the knowledge and experience as a fans following for decades. Boehly is not a football fans for long. He probably is using his knowledge from other US sports

 

In other threads I did say Bruno’s value is dropping already and we might already missed the boat. There are a few people here fiercely voicing out their disagreement. So even football fans could have great variation re a players value, why not those managements that probably just joined the industry for 3-5 years? 
 

And upon that you also need to draft long term plans re players in and out in accordance to their progress, their value and impact on PSR caps.

 

No way you don’t need specific industry knowledge for this.

 

 

Edited September 1, 2024 by Zero

[Ben]

End of the day the Sky 6 have succeeded in preventing us from challenging them by bring in these rules, whilst at the same time breaking them with no consequences.

[Displayname]

Refuse to believe we bid £50m for Elanga. Didnt fucking happen.

[southernmag]

One further frustrating element of this whole summer has been some people's insistence on deriding anyone who dared to have a negative opinion. I saw the writing on the wall in mid to late July about how our window seemed to be going and was shot down for pointing it out. I take zero satisfaction in being right now.

[Kilcline]

2 minutes ago, Displayname said:

Refuse to believe we bid £50m for Elanga. Didnt fucking happen.

I can believe it but not without adding "and you buy Almiron for £20m" 

[The Prophet]

8 hours ago, The College Dropout said:

Back off ban. 
 

the squad building is a mess. I’m pointing the finger at PIF for not setting clear direction and strategy.  
 

I still go back to last summers spending spree for which I’ll blame on Staveley and Mehrdad as acting owners. It didn’t make that much sense at the time but knowing what we know now - it was a shitshow strategically. An over budget window prioritising some of the wrong positions, with the wrong profile, some Howe style, some Ashworth style. Ended up not following any approach. In their defence - if we had a full Eddie window and a bit of luck, we finish top 5. If we had a full Ashworth window, we are much better positioned for FFP/PSR. 

 

Didnt  make the hard decisions in January. June was a mess.  The rest of the window was worse.  
 

I’ve got some questions over Eddie’s influence over transfers. His preference for PL experience is incompatible with our FFP position. But I also think he’s been set aggressive targets so it makes sense he wants low risk signings. Men with PL experience. Not foreign boys with potential. But I believe in his ability to over achieve on the pitch. And that’s the saving grace. As well as having some super talented players. 

 

It's Eales' job as CEO to set the direction and strategy of the club fwiw.

 

He's answerable to PIF. I think as long as the club continues to grow  in value at a decent rate, he'll get by.

 

Until I read the recent Athletic article, I hadn't realised he was as involved in the transfer market as much as he was. I'd hope that the responsibility will be fully delegated to Mitchell moving forward.  The chaotic and reactive nature of the last few days indicates they're still working through the lines of power after the summer upheaval.

[The College Dropout]

6 minutes ago, Zero said:

No, TCD you got it wrong. 
1. yes, the PSR issue looks like purely an accounting stuff, that you can calculate the capacity / black hole by accounting / amortization / P&L etc, BUT

 

2. The real market valuation of the player, their progress, their performance on the pitch, their value change after incidents, value change close to end of contract etc are purely industry knowledge.

 

Just like Chelsea. They are now trying to sell those fringe players at a price even higher than their acquisition fees. We all know it won’t happen, because we have the knowledge and experience as a fans following for decades. Boehly is not a football fans for long. He probably is using his knowledge from other US sports

 

In other threads I did say Bruno’s value is dropping already and we might already missed the boat. There are a few people here fiercely voicing out their disagreement. So even football fans could have great variation re a players value, why not those managements that probably just joined the industry for 3-5 years? 
 

And upon that you also need to draft long term plans re players in and out in accordance to their progress, their value and impact on PSR caps.

 

No way you don’t need specific industry knowledge for this.

 

 

 

It largely depends on what you define as ‘industry specific knowledge’. 
 

In recent windows the only (and massive) issue Chelsea have with PSR is that the turnover of players and coaching staff is too high. Players won’t retain or increase value if they don’t play or they play badly. Having to continually reshuffle squad and coach means that won’t happen. And the size of the fees are still often mad. 
 

But from a business perspective they’ve understood PSR well in recent windows.  
- young players on low wages are most likely to maintain and increase in value. 
- multi club model allows you to spread costs and risk to other less important clubs 

- pioneered the long wages hack (aye industry knowledge makes that a bad move)

- Pioneered the dodgy PSR sale with other PSR hit clubs 

- Selling assets to themselves 

- Aggressively selling youth products 

- now don’t seem willing to offer crazy wages anymore 

 

Chelsea understand PSR just fine. It’s the football they don’t understand. I can see what Chelsea are trying to do, they are just doing way too much of it.  
 

Individual player valuations can vary from footballing man to another. Cool. But broad guidelines are… broadly true. Marc Guehi value is £45-75m. Big gap. But most would agree he’s close to the peak of his value due to age, demonstrable ability, PL experience, existing club position, length of contractand international recognition these are all common guidelines.  Is Bruno G worth £60m or £100m? Don’t know but that’s probably the range.  Using the same factors. Similarly he’s most definitely at the peak of his value. It can hold for another 12 months imo but by 28 most would agree his value will start to decline. 
 

 

[KaKa]

29 minutes ago, Displayname said:

Refuse to believe we bid £50m for Elanga. Didnt fucking happen.

 

We sold Minteh for £30 million.

 

Georginio Rutter went for £40 million.

 

We ourselves paid £40 million for Gordon, who similar to what is being said about Elanga now, was being described as just being fast and not good enough technically.

 

Elanga at the age of 21, in his first ever season as a first team player in the Premier League finished with 5 goals and 9 assists.

 

In our team, playing for our manager alongside the likes of Isak, Bruno, Tonali etc. what does he look like? What does he become going forward? 3 years from now he will still just be 25 years old.

 

I keep seeing players like Elanga, Mbeumo, Semenyo, Wissa, Madueke etc get downplayed all the time. 

 

They're not technical enough I keep hearing. Yeah, but they are very explosive and also, pretty productive too, especially for teams not as good as ours, where you'd expect them to be even better for us.

 

I see opinions on Mbeumo starting to change, as he's off to a flyer, and looking like he's going to have a great season, and this without Toney even in the team.

 

I want to revisit the Elanga thing at the end of the season. And let's then see what the consensus is.

 

In the meantime we'll continue with Almiron and Murphy being scared to dribble the ball, and passing it backwards instead of taking on the full back.

[Eveready]

Accounting in any business requires a certain level of industry knowledge.

 

PSR/FFP is pretty simple to grasp in the grand scheme of things.

 

I don't think Eales particularly lacks industry knowledge either, he's been working in professional football backroom roles for 18 years.

[TRon]

59 minutes ago, Displayname said:

Refuse to believe we bid £50m for Elanga. Didnt fucking happen.

 

Someone at the club really seems to rate him despite opinions on here not concurring.

[The College Dropout]

Elanga was purchased for £15m 12 months ago no? Maybe 24 months ago. To a club we would easily beat to the transfer. 
 

Trying to buy him for £50m in the summer isn’t indicative of savvy transfer market operators. 
 

Rutter, Gordon & Minteh were all purchased from distressed sellers.  2 of them were close to leaving for more money than they eventually went for earlier. 

[junkhead]

Elanga has improved a lot since his headless dribbles at Man U.. similarly to Noni Madueke, he seems on a major upward trajectory.. plays with confidence, he's been extremely good the last year.. probably Forest's best player, alongside MGW

[KaKa]

6 minutes ago, The College Dropout said:

Elanga was purchased for £15m 12 months ago no? Maybe 24 months ago. To a club we would easily beat to the transfer. 
 

Trying to buy him for £50m in the summer isn’t indicative of savvy transfer market operators. 
 

Rutter, Gordon & Minteh were all purchased from distressed sellers.  2 of them were close to leaving for more money than they eventually went for earlier. 

 

This has nothing to do with anything.

 

Elanga at 21 produced in the Premier League last season to the tune of 5 goals and 9 assists. 

 

I'm not sure why there is such a surprise at a £50 million value. What Forest paid for him doesn't have anything to do with it.

 

Rutter, Gordon and Minteh went for high figures not a million miles away from that and have not done, or in Gordon's case at the time, had not done anything close to what Elanga did last season.

 

You say they were distressed sellers and yet they all cost that much still, despite not performing comparably.

 

 

Edited September 1, 2024 by KaKa

[Bunk Moreland]

1 minute ago, junkhead said:

Elanga has improved a lot since his headless dribbles at Man U.. similarly to Noni Madueke, he seems on a major upward trajectory.. plays with confidence, he's been extremely good the last year.. probably Forest's best player, alongside MGW

 

Yeah, don't really get the impulsive distaste for signing him here and elsewhere on quality grounds. Think the manner in which we went for him was clearly ridiculous, but he looks a good young player who will only get better with good coaching and feel people are just jumping into an opinion based on a few old headlines.

[r0cafella]

Just now, KaKa said:

 

This has nothing to with anything.

 

Elanga at 21 produced in the Premier League last season to the tune of 5 goals and 9 assists. 

 

I'm not sure why there is such a surprise at a £50 million value. What Forest paid for him doesn't have anything to do with it.

 

Rutter, Gordon and Minteh went for high figures not a million miles away from that and have not done, or in Gordon's case at the time, had not done anything close to what Elanga did last season.

 

You say they were distressed sellers and yet they all cost that much still, despite not performing comparably.

Kaka my friend, us offering 50m for Elanga 12 months after he joined forest for 15m represents a lot of failures to be honest. 
 

it’s a massive recruitment failure and one we can’t afford, if we liked the look of him take the chance at 15m don’t wait for half decent season and for the valuation to be 50m+. This is precisely how you run into PSR issues through a lack of long term strategy and planning. 

[The College Dropout]

I’ve no issue with the fee. 
 

My issue is the strategy. We should look to sign the next Elanga, the next Minteh.  We seem to have pressure to deliver results immediately but we don’t really have the overall finances for that.  
 

Btw Elanga’s output is good. But his underlying stats aren’t so impressive. 

[The College Dropout]

1 minute ago, r0cafella said:

Kaka my friend, us offering 50m for Elanga 12 months after he joined forest for 15m represents a lot of failures to be honest. 
 

it’s a massive recruitment failure and one we can’t afford, if we liked the look of him take the chance at 15m don’t wait for half decent season and for the valuation to be 50m+. This is precisely how you run into PSR issues through a lack of long term strategy and planning. 

Aye. This why I’m questioning PIF. Why are management so risk averse?

[Andy84]

Cos the regime don’t like it man 

[80]

7 hours ago, r0cafella said:

Given the sums they are paying they are putting the trust in the management team they appoint for top dollar to perform. 

One interesting little claim in Hope's article was that Freedman didn't join due to unhappiness with the remuneration offer.

[KaKa]

9 minutes ago, r0cafella said:

Kaka my friend, us offering 50m for Elanga 12 months after he joined forest for 15m represents a lot of failures to be honest. 
 

it’s a massive recruitment failure and one we can’t afford, if we liked the look of him take the chance at 15m don’t wait for half decent season and for the valuation to be 50m+. This is precisely how you run into PSR issues through a lack of long term strategy and planning. 

 

I'm not arguing that we should have signed him though.

 

My point was that whether you like us going for him now or not, the £50 million is not a crazy value, when you look around at what is going on in the market.

 

Also, if you want a player producing the goods in the league, you're going to have to pay up. If he shows up at your club and does even better your team does better, and his value increases further.

 

Getting hung up on what the previous team paid for him doesn't make sense. That ship has sailed. Oddly enough I remember wondering if we should have taken a punt at the time, but we were asleep.

 

We only paid £10 million less for Gordon, who had shown no production, or underlying numbers at Everton. To much complaining and hand wringing.

 

But now if anyone shows up for Gordon, they have to pony up, what,  £80 million?, because he performed. I doubt we'd care if Everton had bought him for £5 million from Scunthorpe the year before.

 

 

[Bunk Moreland]

1 minute ago, KaKa said:

 

the £50 million is not a crazy value, when you look around at what is going on in the market.

 

 

Agreed. Also think if we went for him in July we could have negotiated a much better deal anyway, possibly even offloading a further squad player in part-exchange in the process.

[KaKa]

24 minutes ago, The College Dropout said:

I’ve no issue with the fee. 
 

My issue is the strategy. We should look to sign the next Elanga, the next Minteh.  We seem to have pressure to deliver results immediately but we don’t really have the overall finances for that.  
 

Btw Elanga’s output is good. But his underlying stats aren’t so impressive. 

 

Yeah, I was responding to the comments about the fee.

 

I agree about the strategy. We miss out on these guys a lot lately, when they are much more affordable. It's how we started off, but now we've gone away from it, and I hate that.

 

However, it seems we're now committed to Prem proven, which quite frankly is pretty ridiculous.

 

I love production especially at that young an age. There's still a ton of room for growth and improvement. We saw it last season with our guy, whose production and underlying numbers were even worse at his previous club.

 

 

Edited September 1, 2024 by KaKa