The College Dropout

We paid a lot of money for a player whose value is unlikely to increase, in a position we were well stacked in. At the time it seemed a luxury transfer. If he was a RW people wouldn’t be complaining. We spent 40m on a LW in Jan, then another 40m for another LW in the summer. Joe’s also impressing at LW. 0 RWs. Except a wee lad, who excelled out on loan. He’ll never play for us though - in part because we bought a backup LW who is 4 years older than the first choice. Between the fee, wages, sign on fee, agent fees , bonuses. Barnes squad cost likely to be 12-15m - that’s a lot of the PSR gap. Similalry with Tonali - why so expensive? It does make you question the transfer activities. Should we have cashed in on Trippier and Wilson in the winter? Lots of questions. Had we had European football in 2024 and qualified for Europa - we might not have been in this position. So there a lot of moving parts. Nothing perfect. Nothing disastrous. Although this transfer is gutting.

This is where I kind of agree and don’t. We may think he’s ace. All the indications are that he’s ace. That’s why a lot of the smartest clubs in Europe are after him. But our PSR position is FUCKED. Risking a points deduction is a non starter. We need to sell. We’ve don’t have many options. Willock, Wilson, Anderson, Targett, Almiron etc. nobody wants them for the money we need. So it’s the fine china in Isak or Bruno or the young wonder kid. So it’s the wonder kid. A club like Brighton will ensure terms are favourable to them. No buyback. Low/no sell on. This is even a lucky escape. Isak would’ve been next. I would’ve rather sold big Joe personally. Puts into perspective what PIF are willing to do. And the fact they’ve not got everything right and are perfectly measured in the transfer market. Which is ok. But we can stop that ‘we have the smartest people in thr world running the club, they wouldn’t put the club in such a position’. They just did.

I go back to ‘how does PIF see this investment’. I don’t think they see it they way ‘City Group’ do. We’ve not made genuine attempts at PSR circumvention. Even Villa’s owners seem more determined to change the status quo.

PIF look to have no desire to go the court route. Btw I think everyone at the club realised this could happen (and worse). They would sell it internally as ‘we disnt sell Bruno or Isak. It’s a win.’ If Minteh was a CM or LW. We wouldn’t mind so much. We have loads of those. It’s the fact that it’s only age and experience keeping him away from being our first choice RW. ‘we’ll need to trade.’ I also think it smashes the notion that we’ve been super cautious and we have geniuses in the backroom. We’ve miscalculated our transfer activity sure. But so have a quarter of the teams that finished above us and more than a quarter of the league. Same thing Villa fans have to grapple with. Speculated to gain ground. Now have to balance PSR books. Unless Villa want to continue playing Chelsea games again next summer, I expect a quieter summer from them. Which is shit. They’ll probably finish 9th. Only issue is that this felt avoidable. Tonali and Barnes transfers in particular. A lot of money.

11 goals and 6 assists at a higher level I would say. And his underlying performance data in some key areas (xg, take ons) is as good as it gets in that division. You can’t argue that Minteh’s trajectory (so far) is not excellent. His trajectory is at least on par with Olise at the same age if not better imo. He’s not the finished article. But his potential is of someone that would be perfect for our weakest position in the field. If we could shift players ahead of him like Miggy, even Wilson - we would. I also think the club or publicising Isak interest. Because that’s the only type of transfer alternative we have.

You don’t think Howe would like a look at this RW wonder kid in training? RW is the weakest position in the squad. His trajectory is better than the likes of Olise at the same age. Mate…. It’s real. Smell the coffee. Too much smoke. We see what Villa and Chelsea are doing. We are in the emergency boat

Why do you think our top youngster is linked to so many clubs?

True. We don't know what will happen. But if Teams make sales in early July to become compliant, will they still be hit with points deductions? Forest played Johnson 3 times when they sold him and it was months after the deadline passed which I think is a big difference. Who knows. If we need to sell. We are cutting it fine. Everything about FFP has seemed arbitrary. Clubs are shuffling because now we know points deductions will follow.

Eales put out the statement and we suddenly had offers for 3 of our players. IMO we put it out there - certain players are for sale. Here we are. Strong rumours that we need to sell to be PSR compliant. I don't believe for a second the journo's are making this up from thin air. IMO we've got 2 days to raise £20m-30m or we'll be hit with a points deduction. The rumours of the 6 clubs needing to sell to be compliant seem true. Or at least mostly true. Villa sold a first-teamer for a mediocre fee in June. Chelsea doing all kinds of weird incoming and outgoings. Forest look to be selling. We look to be selling. Everton are selling Godfrey. Leicester are trying to sell KDH quickly.

Other (non-NUFC) people have claimed we are in a PSR hole. The language from Eales in January and that weird flutter of rumours (Trippier, Wilson, Miggy) indicated something was up. As well as the idea we might sell Joelinton or crown jewels for that reason. I believe it. Why would we sell Minteh in June otherwise? Why not give him the summer with Howe and we decide keep, loan, sell in August?

Look how quickly they turn...

Glad players are pushing back against this BS. In American sports players go wherever they are told right ?

We seem desperate to sell. Yes - if PIF were determined to circumvent PSR that would be the play. They either don’t want to do it. Or none of the players we could realistically sell to PIF and generate enough money that passes FMV dont want to go to Saudi. At least not commit to it in June. You would also think we could sell the training ground or even the stadium and lease it back. But again - doesn’t look like PIF are willing to go to those measures to circumvent FFP. We were linked with more outgoing than in. Including Wilson. We are almost certainly not PSR compliant unless we sell. IMO we have miscalculated our transfer and wages. Thats why Hall was purchased for next season. We must’ve thought revenues would increase or we could sell squad players but that hasn’t happened to so we are likely selling our very best young player. I also think Ashworth was prepared to sell Joelinton this summer for a modest fee which is why he eas hard balling the contract. With the Brazilian lad coming in - Ederson.

They did - I never believed that line. Reminds me of The Soprano's when someone gets wacked... "ooooh he was robbed and killed by some [insert racist term]"

Yeh we've never done what Switzerland did against France.

Are Italy good? I think Switzerland have a good chance against them. But I agree, we don't beat traditionally good sides in KO rounds. We've never done it away from England iirc. Not even a 3rd place play-off. Better chance of beating the Swiss because of the name alone. Brazil have a more recent thing about not beating a good European side in KO rounds since 2002 final iirc. People make a big deal of that and that has only been 20 years and they've only had 4-5 bites at the cherry. We have the opportunity every 2 years and have failed... forever?

Classic big 6 vulture transfer

Agreed. If the fee is brilliant there will be no sell on or buy back.

I've been criticised for saying it. But I don't think PIF have that "success by any means" mindset. If that means several seasons at 5-7th so be it. We'll support others in rule changes to our favour. But we won't lead the charge the way Man City do. We look to exploit loopholes the way Chelsea do. If it happens, we'll take the points deduction on the chin. I reckon we get the Everton deal done with DCL if Minteh insists on going there though.

Time is ticking tbf. We should sell infrastructure.

Both were highly rated tbf. Most people said at the time, Guehi was a coup for Palace.

It's weak. TBH I think he's gone with the team he thinks is best. But it's not. IMO he should've taken a natural and fit LB. Rashford & Sterling have performed for him and England. He should've taken at least one of them. If he loves Phillips so much he should've taken him.

DUPE

We didn't win it either. He's not beaten a "top" side in KO competition away from Wembley and neither has any England manager. Martinez gets a lot of stick but he's at least beaten Brazil (and England twice). If we beat the Netherlands, that's a massive achievement IMO. I still think the side is a mess. Left hand side is still broken. The midfield with Mainoo is too often vacated and a better side will punish us on the transition. I thought Bellingham at 10 and Kane at 9 would have Bellingham getting in the box lots as Kane drops deep and it hasn't happened, that's a clusterfuck.

Imo being at home was a major advantage.