The last two and a half games have seen us playing with some form of 4-3-3/4-5-1 formation. The results have been... mixed, at best.
After a very good season so far it would seem a strange move to drastically change our system at this point, especially now when it appears we finally have a worthy strike partner for Ba at the head of a 4-4-2.
But long term I do think it might be Pardew's vision for the team, and looking at how the squad is shaping up I have to say it has the potential to be pretty tasty.
With everyone fit I think we have 9 players who I'd feel very comfortable starting in it.
Krul
Santon Colo Taylor
Tiote
Cabaye
Ben Arfa Ba
Cisse
Tiote and Cabaye would both really benefit from being part of a 3 man midfield. They're a great little engine room but at times the gap between the midfield is much too big, hence a lot of our long ball assaults this year.
Tiote's problems tend to arise from trying to do too much when in possession. Put him in a pure "destroyer" role with two others who are expected to do the creative work in there with him and we'd mask his weaknesses and accentuate his strengths.
Cabaye's game seems to be more built around being the guy who drops deep to start attacks than it is being the player who picks out the final ball around the opposition penalty area. Even when playing alongside Tiote he seems unwilling to get into advanced positions and hurt teams in the final third. I think he'll benefit from having a another midfielder more advanced than him that he can link up with.
The issue obviously is finding someone to fill the most advanced of the three midfield spots. Ideally we'd be looking at a tidy player with an eye for a final ball who'll also get beyond the striker and nick a few goals himself. Looking at our squad, the only player who I could see fulfilling this role is Vuckic. I like Jonas, but he's not a good long term option in the middle of the park IMO. Yes he runs a lot and his energy levels are great, but a lot of his movement isn't particularly intelligent and he's no real threat to score or produce a piece of quality in the final third. Guthrie could potentially do a job in this spot, but long term I'd see him more as a quality backup for Cabaye than a starter in this system. The problem obviously is that we don't know if Vuckic is ready yet, or if he ever will be for that matter.
I admit I do have reservations about moving Ba out wide given how lethal he's been this year. However, some of his best play has come playing as the more withdrawn of the two strikers when he can find space between midfield and defense to work in. He's not going to be playing as an orthodox winger in any case, rather he'll try to find the ball in space out wide and cut infield. The same goes for Ben Arfa, who is absolutely made for this formation.
Another nice thing about Ba is that in the event that Cisse misses some games then we can move Ba to the striker role and bring in Jonas/Obertan/a new signing to play the wide role rather than having to witness Shola or Best trying to lead the line. Cisse will play on the shoulder of the defense, giving Cabaye an option over the top if teams play a high line against us.
Obviously, a potential issue from playing with two wide men like this is that unless you've got two full backs with both the energy and quality to consistently get up and down the field and contribute to the attacking play then often you're going to get caught playing too narrow. Your full backs need to provide an outlet if teams give you nothing in the middle, and having a dedicated holding player like Tiote and a player like Cabaye who sits relatively deep too gives both your full backs plenty of license to get forward without too much worry of leaving you exposed on the break.
From what I've seen of Santon, he looks good enough. He absolutely needs to be on the right though. You want your full backs getting to the byline and whipping in crosses, not arsing about trying to get the ball on their stronger side.
We need a left back, obviously. The links to Cissokho make a lot of sense, from what I know of him he can get up and down the flank all day. If not him then someone else who's good going forward. Ferguson actually makes some sense from what we already have, but honestly he seems more like good backup than a good starter, at least for a few years until he proves otherwise.
In the summer I'd look for us to move on Shola/Best (ideally/realistically), Lovenkrands, Smith and Perch.
Main target is a top quality left back. After that we need to find another CM. I'm not sure who this would be honestly, I'd trust Carr to find someone though. Then add another wide man (Hoilett would be great if he's going cheap) and a reserve CB. Possibly a reserve GK too if they think Elliot is no good.
First team squad then looks like this:
GK: Krul, Elliot/New GK
RB: Santon, Simpson, R Taylor
LB: New Signing, Ferguson, R Taylor
CB: Colo, S Taylor, New Signing, Williamson
CM: Tiote, Cabaye, New Signing (First Choice Trio) Guthrie, Vuckic, Gosling, Abeid
Wingers: Ben Arfa, Ba, New Signing, Jonas, Obertan, Sammy
Strikers: Cisse, Ba, Best/Shola
Or maybe we should just stick with the 4-4-2?