Minhosa

Every day.

They'll get on a run at some point soon imho. Amazing what a couple of wins will do for their self-belief.

This Coleman’s Mustard.....

Deffo a good thing in terms of historic due diligence too. He'll have a really good understanding of the way the club is run I should imagine.

Push him into a corner and he'll react negatively. He's not the kind of bloke to push around in negotations imho. I think he'd, rightly imo, expect more than £300m. If it max's out there, he won't deal but positive that he's not rejected it out of hand.

Brighton bound I reckon.

I thought Rafa's pre-match comments about the window were quite interesting. He basically played down the possible spend of the new owner, in the event that deal happened. I think he's very very aware of what's happening and probably has had contact with AS directly. Has he done that to keep the expectations of other clubs down in terms of fees? Has he done it manage our expectations? OR do they not actually have that much money to spend at all? Anyone's guess but he knows something....

I don't think they are. Mike Ashley is selling a football club that has an average squad of players by Premier League standards. That's all because of his lack of proper investment. I think it's fair for them to use that as a negotiating tool. Agreed. You have to ask what went into the CIM in terms of bigging us up. Pretty sure it would've said something like 'An ever present in the Premier League, two seasons aside, since it's inception' blah blah blah. She's basically called him on it. If they're so strong then let's share the risk. Not unusual at all.

I'm completely in favour of change. Any change. What is positive about this bid is that AS seemed to make a beeline for Rafa after that game which means there is probably already a relationship there and, given he's is relatively low down in the structure, her making a point of meeting him is very telling. I'd say he knows a huge amount about this deal and had possibly been instrumental in elements of it. That all bodes really well. I can't get on board with the whole 'wouldn't want to be another Man City or Chelsea' thing. We've had donkeys years of dross, we deserve some quality imho. Finally, whoever buys us, it won't be Mike Ashley. To me, that means two things, firstly that there may be an intention to actually compete as a sporting institution and secondly, even if we hate them/her it is unlikely many major investors would be able to cope with us if we turn on them in the way Ashley seems to have just ploughed on through even if he's taken it very personally at times. It's a yes from me but then it would be a yes to pretty much anyone at this point.

Yup. In the midst of this overwhelmingly positive lurch forward NEVER forget that at the arse end of the deal is Mike Fucking Ashley. He must know in the back of his mind that he has to sell now though, it's going to be worth shit all if he holds on to it and he knows it. Who blinks first? He thinks he knows best about everything. It'd be just like him to 'chance' it. The fact that the rest of the world know it will go tits would not preclude him from getting it wrong. It's what he does.

As you know, I've had a hunch that someone else lurks in the background and Ashley could very well pull a fast one here.

Yup. In the midst of this overwhelmingly positive lurch forward NEVER forget that at the arse end of the deal is Mike Fucking Ashley.

Never underestimate Ashley's ego in respect of being 'seen to come out of top'. He will be striving for the same reaction he got with the Andy Carroll and Sissoko deals here. Guess who wins again....

Exactly. No chance it's just a case of meeting in the middle. It will be altering the terms (probably around guaranteeing some of the future sums to mitigate the risk to MA) that does it. These buyers wouldn't just increase a bid by circa 20%. If it's gone this far, it can go all the way.

David Craig innit?

Yeah - it may well be an absolute best case, qualify for the champions league and win it 5 times in a row kind of £300m.

Had a suspicion that was the case. The gross figure is often mentioned in any deal, basically to make it look bigger. Whenever you hear of 'ABC Partners today bought Whoever Ltd in a deal worth £3.4m' the reality is the owners of Whoever Ltd probably got about £1.5m up front and then the remainder is based upon future performance of the business under it's new owners. This is notoriously shaky ground as the new owners can do all sorts to make the business look less successful in the future. No doubt Ashley will be protected to the nth degree on this matter but, even then, he'll have to accept some risk as this would never be a complete cash component deal.

Didn't he hit the headlines years ago when his Mrs put a tracker on his car because she couldn't trust him? . Tracked him to his bit on the side iirc.

Charnley will be down the road quicker than you can say 'Yes man'.

Whilst not unthinkable, I would imagine that there would be a later staged payment contingent on us surviving this season. In any deal of this magnitude there will be risks as to the future performance of the business taken by BOTH sides. New and old.

Wow! Positive stuff this. So, what does this mean? - Due diligence has near enough been completed and they've felt they can put a value on it. This is great in itself*. - They've looked at all of our potential liabilities and felt they could make an offer. Also great as the HMRC thing is surmountable. - The offer is a serious one. You're not fucking about at that amount. - There is a reason it's in the press. Someone has leaked it but, by the looks of it, PCP are waaayyy ahead of other possible interested parties which gives them a big big edge in relation to the Jan window and leaves the fat lad with a big dilemma. Leave it and wangle a better deal but have to risk upsetting Rafa and possibly getting relegated or take the money. I know what I would do. * Even if this doesn't happen (for whatever reason......) the very fact that this has got to this point verifies/validates some earlier chat in here about the financial condition of the club. We're clearly fairly healthy in that respect. This means that, even if not now, we are 'buyable' in the future which is massive in it's own right. If this had fallen over, during DD, that sends one hell of a negative message to the market and makes us damaged goods in many respects. That it hasn't is arguably the most positive point at this stage. What we don't know: - The offer will almost certainly come with clauses around it. For example, £200m up front, with £30m if we avoid relegation, £xm in an escrow account for the HMRC issue, possibly a deal on commercials (sports direct stuff) for a period and also the repayment of his loan (i.e: on what terms). - What we don't know yet is whether the £300m is the headline figure or the WHOLE DEAL figure. This is a major issue. If it's really £200m up front with deferred payments, future contingencies etc then it won't be anywhere near as attractive as the figure indicates. - However, if it starts at £300m, and then goes north when taking those issues above into account, then we'll near enough certainly have a new owner by Xmas. - Finally, we still don't know the source of the money. Saudi's? It'd be great to know who the actual bidder is. We know who is doing the bidding. Not the bidder. I'd love to know the source as that'll give us all a good idea as to their likely approach and wider intentions. In general, the offer they've made, has not just arrived from thin air. They would have had a very good idea as to what Ashley wanted for the place and what they felt they could offer. This would've been established long before DD started. This is not a 'finger in the air or stab in the dark' valuation - this is absolutely intentional and with a view to doing a deal.

Amen to that.

Of course - just trying to offer any bit of insight into a process like this to help people understand what the hell is going or why it would take so long. At this point, I have just about as much info as you all do - and that's whats said in the press and on twitter. My heart says we'll be sold before January, I'm also an eternal optimist. Speaking purely from the business side of this, I just don't see how Mike Ashley gets any more money for the club if he doesn't close on this sale during this process with his top bidder here (assuming its AS/PCP). He will have to put in MORE money in January (to ensure PL safety) and if he gambles on that and we somehow fall apart and go down, he'll NEVER get 300m+ for this club again because it will also likely mean he loses Rafa and has to put in more money into the club. But again, your guess is as good as mine man, we are all looking at the same info in the press/twitter/on here - I wish I knew more! I've asked all of my broker contacts who do RE transactions who are London based and they all repeat the same thing to me and that AS is the real deal and her capital partners are well capitalized and have more than enough money to own a successful football club. I'm also in total agreement with this except for a very small doubt in mind due to the renegade attitude of our owner. My gut feel is that this will happen. I don't think it would've gone this far without his headspace being such that he want's to do a deal. Also, from a purely commercial viewpoint, now is a very good point to sell it. He's going to get maximum value for something he was prepared to sell for £90m to Barry Moat the last time we went down. He should be laughing all the way to the bank.

cheers for that. Ryder again; Wrote last week that the FA know about the takeover bid. There is no exact date available but they have the documents as we speak. Does this mean the FA are now conducting checks on the potential new owner? I mean first he said they had been notified & now they have documents.. I think the FA stuff is a bit of a red herring really, in reporting terms. It'll be a formality so I doubt anyone see's it as anything other than a very minor hurdle in the whole scheme of things so, imho, Ryder is just using it for an article when, in fact, it's less than 0.1% of the process in terms of importance.

Yup - agree with that.