Jagten

Wouldn't take Tielemans if he paid us.

For sure - much the same as shots, possession, etc. However if you view a result as a sample from the probability distribution of all possible results, to me it is not uninteresting to understand the properties of that distribution. Whether a given xG metric is a good approximation of that expectation is another question.

Their model is probably crap, but how is it useless?

Most expected points models have them bottom. Southampton are probably better

Disagree. Man Utd are much more likely to finish above us.

Same guy, all within last few months. He's a joker. https://www.footballinsider247.com/sources-newcastle-united-eye-move-for-james-ward-prowse/ https://www.footballinsider247.com/sourcesnewcastle-well-placed-to-agree-conor-gallagher-deal-after-huge-news/ https://www.footballinsider247.com/sources-newcastle-united-in-talks-to-sign-goncalo-inacio-45m-offer-will-be-accepted/ https://www.footballinsider247.com/sources-newcastle-united-plotting-to-sign-youri-tielemans-as-talks-revealed/

Because Benitez probably has no interest in a short-term deal. He wants a project that permits him sporting director control.

No Gordon expert, but guess from browsing Grand Old Team there's a non-zero chance he is total garbage: https://www.grandoldteam.com/forum/threads/anthony-gordon.115788/page-802

Underlying numbers are actually OK (e.g. biggest underperformance here https://understat.com/league/EPL, but can't comment on their model). Thought Leeds fans were split on him, unlike our boy Brucey?

Telegraph sport understands short-term cover will be sought with bids prepared for Eddie Nketiah and Henry Mauriss

He's a good player with some world class attributes but is possibly better suited as a CB. A possession-orientated side exposes him the most which makes a move to the elite difficult.

Jacob Murphy has 16 appearances for us this season. Pulisic clearly has a higher ceiling than Almiron too.

Rice is pretty terrible is a possession-orientated side, especially as single pivot. Not his skillset.

Exactly this. Dude has 10 goals in top-flight football. Seems like not a green flag for his character and decision making.

wait till this fucking beta understands how many things in that room need petrochemicals.

Journalists disliking your managerial appointment is the only true sign that you've got it right. At times like this I am always reminded of the greatest such example from https://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2013/jan/18/nigel-adkins-southampton:

let the commencement commence

Watford fans seem upset and think the bid is nowhere near fair value: https://wfcforums.com/index.php?threads/joao-pedro.59473/page-3

The west is currently begging SA for more oil, so I'd say the chances for any form of sanctions are zero.

What the absolute fuck are they doing.

Man City and Chelsea were pre-FFP. If that was our operating environment we probably aren't looking at Jack Harrison and I also wouldn't care. Valuation doesn't have to be about making a profit. Liverpool do not buy players with a view to selling them, but they have been very good at increasing the value of their investments. If you're not elite and want to become elite, you need to be good at spotting pricing inefficiencies with asymmetric risk/return. My argument is Jack Harrison is not that.

Improvement or not (in that position our bar is low), the probable outcome of investing in a 25 y/o being a 30% loss of value is a bet I do not take.

The risk/return seems pretty bad on this one. Probability of his value ever exceeding the quoted fees feels like <1%.

I'm indifferent to Paqueta but the quoted fees were obviously insane. He has a non-trivial risk premium, and is less useful to less sides than Bruno.

JWP predictably popular with fans but his game is 90% set-pieces and there'd be no value in his likely transfer fee. Sort of thing Everton would have done when they had money IMO.