Alan Shearer contract latest: long gone

[Parky]

You give me a £1 for every one under a 100m.

 

 

[Guest habibbeye]

Maybe pay 100m and then pay 5m every year we are in the Premiership in teh next 20 years so if we are successful he gets his money back?

[Skirge]

Maybe pay 100m and then pay 5m every year we are in the Premiership in teh next 20 years so if we are successful he gets his money back?

that you Mike?

[Teasy]

You give me a £1 for every one under a 100m.

 

 

 

I assume you mean £1 for every £1m under £100m?   Like I said its dependant on the loan debt, IF Ashley expects his loan back then I wouldn't expect anyone to pay more then £20m for the club at the very most.

 

Right so I have to give you £1 for every £1m under £100m including loan debt (so if it sells for £20m and the accounts tell us Ashley is still owed £100m loan that counts as £120m sale price).  You have to give me £1 for every £1m over £50m including debt

[Parky]

Over 70m would be fair.

[Parky]

Maybe pay 100m and then pay 5m every year we are in the Premiership in teh next 20 years so if we are successful he gets his money back?

 

What in gods name are you babbling about?

[Colos Short and Curlies]

You give me a £1 for every one under a 100m.

 

 

 

 

 

I assume you mean £1 for every £1m under £100m?   Like I said its dependant on the loan debt, IF Ashley expects his loan back then I wouldn't expect anyone to pay more then £20m for the club at the very most.

 

Right so I have to give you £1 for every £1m under £100m including loan debt (so if it sells for £20m and the accounts tell us Ashley is still owed £100m loan that counts as £120m sale price).  You have to give me £1 for every £1m over £50m including debt

 

Tell you what, I'll play bookkeeper for this little spread bet for a very reasonable cut of 30% of either winnings :colo:

[Skirge]

Light at end of the tunnel for Shearer and NUFC

 

Jun 24 2009 by Neil Farrington, Evening Chronicle

 

 

THE FUTURE of Newcastle United – and Alan Shearer – should finally move closer to being decided on Friday.

 

Sources in London have confirmed to the Chronicle that decisive movement on Mike Ashley’s attempt to sell the Magpies is finally expected at the end of the working week.

 

And Shearer has been made aware of imminent developments which may belatedly hasten his permanent appointment as Newcastle manager.

 

We understand the former England captain has been invited to a meeting – also on Friday – with United’s remaining top brass to bring him up to speed with the situation.

 

It will be the first time that Shearer has been briefed by club officials since the week following Newcastle’s relegation, when talks on his future ended unresolved.

 

Significantly, Newcastle club secretary Lee Charnley has already travelled down to London to keep a close check on progress on the takeover front.

 

, City insiders insist Friday is the day when serious contenders are finally expected to show their hand.

 

That may see Seymour Pierce – the investment bank hired by Ashley to find a buyer – reveal the identity of a “preferred bidder” next week.

 

Numerous parties have

 

been linked with an interest in a Toon takeover, from the Singapore-based Profitable Group to consortia financed in the USA and the North East, as well as former Newcastle chairman Freddy Shepherd.

 

But none of those concerned will confirm their interest, having signed non-disclosure clauses preventing them from making any comment on the ownership battle.

http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/nufc/newcastle-united-news/2009/06/24/light-at-end-of-the-tunnel-for-shearer-and-nufc-72703-23963672/2/

[Teasy]

Over 70m would be fair.

 

Yeah, just joking with the £50m.  I'd take the bet at £65m vs £100m.

[Pilko]

Getting there by the sound of things. Shearer might just be in place for the 1st of July... and I'm sure if he's not Hughton will be only in charge for a few days, and Shearer will be telling him what to do if he knows he WILL become manager.

 

Positive.

[relámpago blanco]

Getting there by the sound of things. Shearer might just be in place for the 1st of July... and I'm sure if he's not Hughton will be only in charge for a few days, and Shearer will be telling him what to do if he knows he WILL become manager.

 

Positive.

My birthday is the 2nd of July and I've told everyone I know that I don't want a present and ask them to ensure my present is that Shearer is appointed in my birthday.

[Slugsy]

Nobody in their right mind buys a CCC club for 100m.

 

For most Championship clubs that would be true.  Most of them don't have a massive stadium, massive fan base and state of the art facilities.

 

Fancy a side bet on the eventual selling price?

 

Only if we include the debt in the price   Like I said 100m with Ashley's loan removed is an acceptable price IMO.  But obviously nobody's going to pay 100m and 100m+ loan to Ashley.

 

I'd love to hear the actual basis for your valuation? Walk me through the numbers?

[Teasy]

Nobody in their right mind buys a CCC club for 100m.

 

For most Championship clubs that would be true.  Most of them don't have a massive stadium, massive fan base and state of the art facilities.

 

Fancy a side bet on the eventual selling price?

 

Only if we include the debt in the price   Like I said 100m with Ashley's loan removed is an acceptable price IMO.  But obviously nobody's going to pay 100m and 100m+ loan to Ashley.

 

I'd love to hear the actual basis for your valuation? Walk me through the numbers?

 

Based on a decreased revenue from £100m to £55m and a Premiership valuation of between £200m to £250m and the fact he's not going to accept much less then £100m for a club he's effectively paid nearly £250m for.

[Slugsy]

Nobody in their right mind buys a CCC club for 100m.

 

For most Championship clubs that would be true.  Most of them don't have a massive stadium, massive fan base and state of the art facilities.

 

Fancy a side bet on the eventual selling price?

 

Only if we include the debt in the price   Like I said 100m with Ashley's loan removed is an acceptable price IMO.  But obviously nobody's going to pay 100m and 100m+ loan to Ashley.

 

I'd love to hear the actual basis for your valuation? Walk me through the numbers?

 

Based on a decreased revenue from £100m to £50m and a Premiership valuation of £200m+ and the fact he's not going to accept much less then £100m for a club he's effectively paid nearly £250m for.

 

So basically you have no basis? 

 

You want someone to pay £100m for a club that is operating at a loss, even before amortisation of players, that is expecting a fall in revenue from c£100m to £50m (optimistic as well), which with the current cost structure of the business translates into a much greater loss and for some bizarre, irrelevant premiership valuation that is again based on nothing apart from Mike Ashely's stupidity.

 

Just because Mike Ashley was fool enough to pay silly money, doesn't mean its actually worth that.

 

I agree with Parky, £100m is inflated and if you actually look at the numbers, a lot of that £100m value would have to be 'goodwill' as the numbers don't stack up.

[Cronky]

Nobody in their right mind buys a CCC club for 100m.

 

For most Championship clubs that would be true.  Most of them don't have a massive stadium, massive fan base and state of the art facilities.

 

Fancy a side bet on the eventual selling price?

 

Only if we include the debt in the price   Like I said 100m with Ashley's loan removed is an acceptable price IMO.  But obviously nobody's going to pay 100m and 100m+ loan to Ashley.

 

I'd love to hear the actual basis for your valuation? Walk me through the numbers?

 

Based on a decreased revenue from £100m to £55m and a Premiership valuation of between £200m to £250m and the fact he's not going to accept much less then £100m for a club he's effectively paid nearly £250m for.

 

The fact that four consortiums are interested at £100 million means in itself that the club hasn't been overvalued.

 

As with all assets, the price depends on the level of demand and the perceived resale value down the line. All highly artificial.

[Teasy]

Nobody in their right mind buys a CCC club for 100m.

 

For most Championship clubs that would be true.  Most of them don't have a massive stadium, massive fan base and state of the art facilities.

 

Fancy a side bet on the eventual selling price?

 

Only if we include the debt in the price   Like I said 100m with Ashley's loan removed is an acceptable price IMO.  But obviously nobody's going to pay 100m and 100m+ loan to Ashley.

 

I'd love to hear the actual basis for your valuation? Walk me through the numbers?

 

Based on a decreased revenue from £100m to £50m and a Premiership valuation of £200m+ and the fact he's not going to accept much less then £100m for a club he's effectively paid nearly £250m for.

 

So basically you have no basis? 

 

You want someone to pay £100m for a club that is operating at a loss, even before amortisation of players, that is expecting a fall in revenue from c£100m to £50m (optimistic as well), which with the current cost structure of the business translates into a much greater loss and for some bizarre, irrelevant premiership valuation that is again based on nothing apart from Mike Ashely's stupidity.

 

Just because Mike Ashley was fool enough to pay silly money, doesn't mean its actually worth that.

 

I agree with Parky, £100m is inflated and if you actually look at the numbers, a lot of that £100m value would have to be 'goodwill' as the numbers don't stack up.

 

, you disagree with my reasoning so my opinion has no basis, well I disagree with you therefore yours has no basis

 

I'd be interested in having a discussion but not an angst ridden internet war of words, I'm sick of those.  Come back to me if you're willing to do that.

[Teasy]

Nobody in their right mind buys a CCC club for 100m.

 

For most Championship clubs that would be true.  Most of them don't have a massive stadium, massive fan base and state of the art facilities.

 

Fancy a side bet on the eventual selling price?

 

Only if we include the debt in the price   Like I said 100m with Ashley's loan removed is an acceptable price IMO.  But obviously nobody's going to pay 100m and 100m+ loan to Ashley.

 

I'd love to hear the actual basis for your valuation? Walk me through the numbers?

 

Based on a decreased revenue from £100m to £55m and a Premiership valuation of between £200m to £250m and the fact he's not going to accept much less then £100m for a club he's effectively paid nearly £250m for.

 

The fact that four consortiums are interested at £100 million means in itself that the club hasn't been overvalued.

 

As with all assets, the price depends on the level of demand and the perceived resale value down the line. All highly artificial.

 

Yep, its all based on what people are willing to pay and the potential return.  As a Premiership club even making big losses people were willing to pay over £200m, its been said many times that the people who took over Man City offered over £200m to Ashley but he wouldn't accept much under £400m   Same thing was then said by the bloke who's now taking over Portsmouth.

 

Obviously the club will lose value dropping from the Premiership, revenue will drop by at least £40m and the status of being in the Premiership itself is important to a clubs value.  However wages are also planned to fall by at least £35m.  £100m is no doubt at the high end of what the club is worth (£80-£90 would be more reasonable) but I don't see it as an insane price.  Just getting the club back up to the Premiership can more then double that investment.

[Slugsy]

Nobody in their right mind buys a CCC club for 100m.

 

For most Championship clubs that would be true.  Most of them don't have a massive stadium, massive fan base and state of the art facilities.

 

Fancy a side bet on the eventual selling price?

 

Only if we include the debt in the price   Like I said 100m with Ashley's loan removed is an acceptable price IMO.  But obviously nobody's going to pay 100m and 100m+ loan to Ashley.

 

I'd love to hear the actual basis for your valuation? Walk me through the numbers?

 

Based on a decreased revenue from £100m to £55m and a Premiership valuation of between £200m to £250m and the fact he's not going to accept much less then £100m for a club he's effectively paid nearly £250m for.

 

The fact that four consortiums are interested at £100 million means in itself that the club hasn't been overvalued.

 

As with all assets, the price depends on the level of demand and the perceived resale value down the line. All highly artificial.

 

That doesn't mean they will pay £100m, they have only said they are interested and any offer will be subject to due diligence.

 

I agree that the level of demand or competitve tension will impact on value and the perceived resale value but I'd like to hear how people are coming up with their valuations which have no actual basis at present other than Mike Ashley paid £x for it and Mike Ashley wants £x for it - that doesn't mean it's worth that.

[Heron]

I would expect there to be a certain degree of bartering involved so starting at a high price is probably the best option from a business point of view. From my point of view just hand the club over for a quid Ashley - no one likes you.

[Teasy]

Like I said, Ashley was offered over £200m by two seperate parties last time he tried to sell.

[Skirge]

Like I said, Ashley was offered over £200m by two seperate parties last time he tried to sell.

 

Hope he kicks himself every fkn day over that, infac the could employ me to kick him in the balls once an hour wearign my riggers, infact fk employ I'll do it for nowt, even pay my own expenses.

[jimmymag]

Nobody in their right mind buys a CCC club for 100m.

 

For most Championship clubs that would be true.  Most of them don't have a massive stadium, massive fan base and state of the art facilities.

 

Fancy a side bet on the eventual selling price?

 

Only if we include the debt in the price   Like I said 100m with Ashley's loan removed is an acceptable price IMO.  But obviously nobody's going to pay 100m and 100m+ loan to Ashley.

 

I'd love to hear the actual basis for your valuation? Walk me through the numbers?

 

Based on a decreased revenue from £100m to £55m and a Premiership valuation of between £200m to £250m and the fact he's not going to accept much less then £100m for a club he's effectively paid nearly £250m for.

 

The fact that four consortiums are interested at £100 million means in itself that the club hasn't been overvalued.

 

As with all assets, the price depends on the level of demand and the perceived resale value down the line. All highly artificial.

 

The £100 million asking price hasn't scared potential purchasers off if that's what you mean, but you can't conclude from that that the club hasn't been overvalued. As with all sales, the correct value is the price that the market is willing to pay and I think that Ashley will be very lucky to get his asking price in the current circumstances.

 

There are two possible scenarios:

1) The potential new owners will pull out all of the stops to get us into the Premiership at the first attempt, so time is of the essence and they may be prepared to do the deal quickly and pay the asking price or close to it.

2) The potential new owners have a medium to long term plan for the club and are prepared to play a waiting game and, potentially, write off the coming season in order to drive the price down.

 

I think option 2 is more likely at the moment because of Ashley's inept management in allowing the club to drift rudderless towards the new season.

 

 

[Slugsy]

Nobody in their right mind buys a CCC club for 100m.

 

For most Championship clubs that would be true.  Most of them don't have a massive stadium, massive fan base and state of the art facilities.

 

Fancy a side bet on the eventual selling price?

 

Only if we include the debt in the price   Like I said 100m with Ashley's loan removed is an acceptable price IMO.  But obviously nobody's going to pay 100m and 100m+ loan to Ashley.

 

I'd love to hear the actual basis for your valuation? Walk me through the numbers?

 

Based on a decreased revenue from £100m to £50m and a Premiership valuation of £200m+ and the fact he's not going to accept much less then £100m for a club he's effectively paid nearly £250m for.

 

So basically you have no basis? 

 

You want someone to pay £100m for a club that is operating at a loss, even before amortisation of players, that is expecting a fall in revenue from c£100m to £50m (optimistic as well), which with the current cost structure of the business translates into a much greater loss and for some bizarre, irrelevant premiership valuation that is again based on nothing apart from Mike Ashely's stupidity.

 

Just because Mike Ashley was fool enough to pay silly money, doesn't mean its actually worth that.

 

I agree with Parky, £100m is inflated and if you actually look at the numbers, a lot of that £100m value would have to be 'goodwill' as the numbers don't stack up.

 

, you disagree with my reasoning so my opinion has no basis, well I disagree with you therefore yours has no basis

 

I'd be interested in having a discussion but not a angst ridden internet war or words, I'm sick of those.  Come back to me if you're willing to do that.

 

Very happy to, let me start:

 

The club is operating at a loss of c£2m before exceptionals and player amortisation (per last accounts), thus a valuation based on a earnings multiple is impossible at this point - certainly I wouldn't advise any of my client's to be bidding on any future forecast given the massive uncertainty of the business, reduced income, NO GUARANTEE of reducing the wage bill down, what happens to the playing squad if they do reduce the wage bill, lack of management structure etc.

 

So I look at the asset value of the business which is -£40m - granted with a debt of c£100m in it.

 

You mentioned that with the £100m written off then a value of £100m is acceptable.

 

We write off that £100m debt and have an asset value of £60m.  That asset value includes a number of players registrations whom values in the books would be very different to their REALISABLE value and thus £60m in itself is in my opinion, and with lack of further information, too high.

 

But that aside, if we take the notional asset value of £60m, you are valuing the goodwill of the business at £40m -  a number given our last 3 years track record, current league status, current management structure and current operating structure as far, far too great.

 

You can argue we have a massive fan base, loads of potential etc, but that isn't actually delivering any value at the moment and it would be up to a new owner to create that value, why should a new owner pay for that and if they do, why should they pay so much as £40m.

 

That's why I think a value of £100m is over inflated, now as Bobyule metioned, demand etc may change the actual price paid in reality but I don't think the actual numbers stack up at all.

 

 

[quayside]

Nobody in their right mind buys a CCC club for 100m.

 

For most Championship clubs that would be true.  Most of them don't have a massive stadium, massive fan base and state of the art facilities.

 

Fancy a side bet on the eventual selling price?

 

Only if we include the debt in the price   Like I said 100m with Ashley's loan removed is an acceptable price IMO.  But obviously nobody's going to pay 100m and 100m+ loan to Ashley.

 

I'd love to hear the actual basis for your valuation? Walk me through the numbers?

 

Based on a decreased revenue from £100m to £55m and a Premiership valuation of between £200m to £250m and the fact he's not going to accept much less then £100m for a club he's effectively paid nearly £250m for.

 

The fact that four consortiums are interested at £100 million means in itself that the club hasn't been overvalued.

 

As with all assets, the price depends on the level of demand and the perceived resale value down the line. All highly artificial.

 

That doesn't mean they will pay £100m, they have only said they are interested and any offer will be subject to due diligence.

 

I agree that the level of demand or competitve tension will impact on value and the perceived resale value but I'd like to hear how people are coming up with their valuations which have no actual basis at present other than Mike Ashley paid £x for it and Mike Ashley wants £x for it - that doesn't mean it's worth that.

 

The thing is that there is no real valuation model for a football club. A lot of them are loss making, have negative net worth and would be insolvent if not for the owner propping them up. So you can't apply things like PE ratios or balance sheet valuations, they just don't work.

 

A lot depends on the buyer's motives. If the buyer is looking at it in some sort of business context then all he can do is look at what's there and make a judgement call on it. A buyer has to assume that he is going to find a way to get it back into the Premiership, he has to factor in that the club will need quite a bit of further funding to get there. He also has to look at the assets the club has - stadium, training ground etc are all fit for purpose for a very high level of football indeed, so no further investment is needed there. And then you would have to form a view of what it might be worth if you succeed. On the other hand if the buyer is a billionaire looking for some fun (been there before I think) then the valuation becomes even more random.

[Keefaz]

Is it possible to make money from NUFC? If not, then what motive would a potential buyer have for putting in an offer for the club?