Various: Mike Ashley in talks with Sheikh Khaled bin Zayed Al Nehayan

[David Icke - Son of God]

Someone clarify or correct.

 

Ashley's initial loan was him paying off the club debt because he didn't do due dilligence?

 

So the club value was what he paid plus that loan to make the club debt-free.  What would that figure be, circa 250m?

 

Any other money spent in the interim since then was part and parcel of running a football club and in addition he's had free advertising and, to my knowledge, has had some of the debt serviced, yes?

 

The TV money dosn't come into the clubs value imo as all the clubs get TV money and it is therefore not a special consideration.

 

The reason I am asking these questions is to try and decide if £250m was ridiculously low, or £380m was ridiculously high.

 

 

250m is low. That is what the club was worth a decade ago. With the new PL money top tier clubs can become decent investment vehicles if managed correctly. IMO Newcastle has other advantages over run of the mill PL clubs as well.

 

Think this might burst a few bubbles in here, but from a business perspective we are a run of the mill PL club. We are no different than Stoke, Watford, Bournemouth, and Swansea. Just like all of them and really anyone outside the top 6, we are closer to not being a PL club at all than being a top tier club. This is why there is such a massive gap in the valuations of the top 6 and everyone else. It's hard to fathom Liverpool or Spurs being relegated so those clubs are in a similar price bracket to some American sports teams based on the massive, global TV deals, merchandise, tickets, etc. For everyone else the threat of relegation, and with it the loss of the primary revenue stream, is more real than ever.

 

The best way for Ashley to get the price he wants (and likely much more) would be to place a bet on Rafa's ability to move us into a much more secure position. Establish us as a "safe" club. But he's not going to do that so he'll continue to gamble, benefit from the global branding he's getting for free, and see if someone will eventually take the risk and pay him what he wants.

 

Hmm. Bigger, better stadium in a better location, bigger fanbase (with the reputation, fair or otherwise, of being particularly fanatical), a history of competing in Europe (and the CL, in fact). How can you say we're the same - in terms of potential - as the other clubs listed? Get it right - which involves risk - and we'll be going much further than a Watford or a Swansea, and more quickly.

 

We *are* one of the most attractive investment opportunities in the PL - it's us and Everton.

 

I've no doubt we're attractive because of the potential for growth, however if you look at us from a business POV could you really argue that we're worth substantially more than £250m? The investment required on top of that initial outlay, on the playing squad, the training ground and academy facilities, is going to run into hundreds of millions of pounds. Couple that with the damage done to our commercial income over the last decade, and it becomes much harder for PCP or anyone else interested in purchasing the club to justify chucking another £50m/£100m on the table.

 

They'll know exactly what we're worth, down to the last penny. It's tough tits if we think it's low, or even if Ashley thinks it's low. The real value of NUFC has zero to do with what he's spent on it, and everything to do with the value of the assets and the performance of the team. By that measure I'd say £250m isn't far off.

[TRon]

Someone clarify or correct.

 

Ashley's initial loan was him paying off the club debt because he didn't do due dilligence?

 

So the club value was what he paid plus that loan to make the club debt-free.  What would that figure be, circa 250m?

 

Any other money spent in the interim since then was part and parcel of running a football club and in addition he's had free advertising and, to my knowledge, has had some of the debt serviced, yes?

 

The TV money dosn't come into the clubs value imo as all the clubs get TV money and it is therefore not a special consideration.

 

The reason I am asking these questions is to try and decide if £250m was ridiculously low, or £380m was ridiculously high.

 

 

250m is low. That is what the club was worth a decade ago. With the new PL money top tier clubs can become decent investment vehicles if managed correctly. IMO Newcastle has other advantages over run of the mill PL clubs as well.

 

Think this might burst a few bubbles in here, but from a business perspective we are a run of the mill PL club. We are no different than Stoke, Watford, Bournemouth, and Swansea. Just like all of them and really anyone outside the top 6, we are closer to not being a PL club at all than being a top tier club. This is why there is such a massive gap in the valuations of the top 6 and everyone else. It's hard to fathom Liverpool or Spurs being relegated so those clubs are in a similar price bracket to some American sports teams based on the massive, global TV deals, merchandise, tickets, etc. For everyone else the threat of relegation, and with it the loss of the primary revenue stream, is more real than ever.

 

The best way for Ashley to get the price he wants (and likely much more) would be to place a bet on Rafa's ability to move us into a much more secure position. Establish us as a "safe" club. But he's not going to do that so he'll continue to gamble, benefit from the global branding he's getting for free, and see if someone will eventually take the risk and pay him what he wants.

 

Hmm. Bigger, better stadium in a better location, bigger fanbase (with the reputation, fair or otherwise, of being particularly fanatical), a history of competing in Europe (and the CL, in fact). How can you say we're the same - in terms of potential - as the other clubs listed? Get it right - which involves risk - and we'll be going much further than a Watford or a Swansea, and more quickly.

 

We *are* one of the most attractive investment opportunities in the PL - it's us and Everton.

 

That attractiveness is diminishing every season though. Big money has transformed Chelsea, and to some extent Man City into global brands whereas before they were middling PL clubs. It can arguably be done with some other clubs as well, like West Brom or Wolves if they come up. Every season Ashley under-invests, he's pushing us further down the ladder of attractive PL clubs. For player, sponsors, worldwide fans and ultimately investors.

[Hhtoon]

Someone clarify or correct.

 

Ashley's initial loan was him paying off the club debt because he didn't do due dilligence?

 

So the club value was what he paid plus that loan to make the club debt-free.  What would that figure be, circa 250m?

 

Any other money spent in the interim since then was part and parcel of running a football club and in addition he's had free advertising and, to my knowledge, has had some of the debt serviced, yes?

 

The TV money dosn't come into the clubs value imo as all the clubs get TV money and it is therefore not a special consideration.

 

The reason I am asking these questions is to try and decide if £250m was ridiculously low, or £380m was ridiculously high.

 

 

250m is low. That is what the club was worth a decade ago. With the new PL money top tier clubs can become decent investment vehicles if managed correctly. IMO Newcastle has other advantages over run of the mill PL clubs as well.

 

Think this might burst a few bubbles in here, but from a business perspective we are a run of the mill PL club. We are no different than Stoke, Watford, Bournemouth, and Swansea. Just like all of them and really anyone outside the top 6, we are closer to not being a PL club at all than being a top tier club. This is why there is such a massive gap in the valuations of the top 6 and everyone else. It's hard to fathom Liverpool or Spurs being relegated so those clubs are in a similar price bracket to some American sports teams based on the massive, global TV deals, merchandise, tickets, etc. For everyone else the threat of relegation, and with it the loss of the primary revenue stream, is more real than ever.

 

The best way for Ashley to get the price he wants (and likely much more) would be to place a bet on Rafa's ability to move us into a much more secure position. Establish us as a "safe" club. But he's not going to do that so he'll continue to gamble, benefit from the global branding he's getting for free, and see if someone will eventually take the risk and pay him what he wants.

 

Hmm. Bigger, better stadium in a better location, bigger fanbase (with the reputation, fair or otherwise, of being particularly fanatical), a history of competing in Europe (and the CL, in fact). How can you say we're the same - in terms of potential - as the other clubs listed? Get it right - which involves risk - and we'll be going much further than a Watford or a Swansea, and more quickly.

 

There's plenty of reasons we're better from a romantic point of view, but that's irrelevant unless we find out Jeff Bezos or the Sultan of Arabia is secretly a Geordie at heart.

 

The stadium and crowds are a blip on the total revenue. A history of competing in Europe is meaningless as it is history and provides exactly £0 in revenue. Even if a prospective owner was comfortable paying a bit of a premium based on our potential, our stadium, etc., it would be eye opening to calculate the cost of attempting to infiltrate the top 6 and become one of them. And if you're not one of them, you are one bad appointment and/or a few bad signings from risking your PL status and future revenue.

 

You can't just value clubs on current financial terms, it's also about the brand and potential growth. Yeah it's worth £0 now but commercially, with equal investment, we would always generate far greater revenue than the majority of teams outside the top 6.

 

Why are PCP not offering far less for any other lower mid table team?

[mighty__mag]

https://business-reporter.co.uk/2014/12/08/the-big-interview-amanda-staveley/

 

https://www.ft.com/content/73c4fe86-bdbb-11e0-babc-00144feabdc0

 

 

Maybe not relevant to now. But a bit of background on staveley.

 

Sounds like someone who knows exactly how to get a deal done and negotiate.

[1964]

https://business-reporter.co.uk/2014/12/08/the-big-interview-amanda-staveley/

 

https://www.ft.com/content/73c4fe86-bdbb-11e0-babc-00144feabdc0

 

 

Maybe not relevant to now. But a bit of background on staveley.

 

Sounds like someone who knows exactly how to get a deal done and negotiate.

 

No no no surely not.  We’ve been told she is a time waster

[DJ_NUFC]

Tyrekicker, mate.

[Shelveys Hair]

She deals with people far richer than Mike Ashley.. they havnt came in and tried to lick his balls, so he threw his toys out of the pram in order to try and get what he wants.

 

After waiting half the window for them to up their bid.. maybe he didnt want to look weak and sanctioned the signing of 3 players, while appearing to kick PCP to the curb.

 

If Ashley wants to sell, a deal will go through.. but Im not entirely sure he does. It could also just be a game of cat and mouse.

[Altamullan]

They are both very experienced negotiators. Backed by a team of others used to getting the best possible deal; by hook or by crook. He still wants to sell, she/they still want to buy. They can’t agree on a price. No change basically. In effect Ashley’s ‘message’, is just a public way of demonstrating he isn’t willing to accept what they’ve offered. Again, not new information.

 

Only question for me, after Ashley’s ‘move’, is how much does she/they want this? Despite all the extensive number crunching, they will have done, it is that which will determine how much flex there is what they are willing to pay.

[biggs]

For what its worth here is my take on it ,PCP offer a lower amount like buying a car etc and Cashley says no i want more so a game starts and Ashley starts throwing toys out the pram to get a better offer and awaits reply ,Ashley terribly pissed off with the media making it all public (if we believe the shite spouted ) and wants it all to stay behind closed doors till agreement reached yawn .

Carrying on from previous posts i agree that poor judgement and a total lack of vision to keep us top half has diminished our value and totally bad decisions and under investment in the academy has made us woefully weak.

[biggs]

They are both very experienced negotiators. Backed by a team of others used to getting the best possible deal; by hook or by crook. He still wants to sell, she/they still want to buy. They can’t agree on a price. No change basically. In effect Ashley’s ‘message’, is just a public way of demonstrating he isn’t willing to accept what they’ve offered. Again, not new information.

 

Only question for me, after Ashley’s ‘move’, is how much does she/they want this? Despite all the extensive number crunching, they will have done, it is that which will determine how much flex there is what they are willing to pay.

nail on head

[Guest]

We've learned through Ashley's reluctance himself that in football you have to pay over the odds sometimes. How many times over the last 4-5 years have we missed out on a player because we don't want to 'overpay' even though you sometimes have to?

 

Staveley and co might have to go the extra £20-30m or whatever to get what they want if they really want it.

[Bimpy474]

They are both very experienced negotiators. Backed by a team of others used to getting the best possible deal; by hook or by crook. He still wants to sell, she/they still want to buy. They can’t agree on a price. No change basically. In effect Ashley’s ‘message’, is just a public way of demonstrating he isn’t willing to accept what they’ve offered. Again, not new information.

 

Only question for me, after Ashley’s ‘move’, is how much does she/they want this? Despite all the extensive number crunching, they will have done, it is that which will determine how much flex there is what they are willing to pay.

 

Or the alternate is.....Ashley never really wanted to sell, used it as a cover to not spend in the transfer windows. Then oh dear someone showed an interest, and now he's done his best to make them say sod that after lying about them. Knowing there are no other bids, and look at the timing, yet again before an away game and ages before the next home game.

 

Keep us up on the cheap for the next lot of TV money. I mean it's not like we haven't seen all this shit before is it ?

The only thing we can hope is, that he really does want to sell but would you believe a word that man says, about anything ?

[bealios]

 

The whole lack of due diligence thing didn't mean he didn't know about the loan, it was more that he didn't realise that it became immediately repayable following a change of control. He knew the loan was there, and the price of £135m reflected that loan. If the club didn't owe £100m to the banks, the club would have been worth a lot more.

 

Being very simplistic, you could say that a debt free NUFC in 2007 was worth £235m, but the fact that there was £100m owed to banks meant Ashley was only going to pay £135m.

 

Assuming NUFC in 2018 is being sold free of Ashley's debt, then it would appear that the £250m would be a tad on the low side if you look at it as how much 2007 NUFC should have increased in value to 2018 NUFC, given the huge increase in TV money. Even after the turmoil of the last 10 years, it isn't unreasonable to suggest that a £235m 2007 NUFC has increased to at least a £300m 2018 NUFC. Perhaps more, given that the international TV money isn't going to disappear any time soon.

 

If you look at the increase in value of other Premier League clubs, then that percentage increase isn't a bad example.

 

 

It wasn’t a £100m loan though when he purchased it though.

 

Off top of my head;

 

He paid £129m for the Club

 

The 15 year mortgage (secured each season until 2015 via 40K season ticket sales IIRC) on level 7 became immediately due on any sale so he had to pay that and he paid up all money owed on players we had purchased (I think) – I think in total it was about an extra £74m to his £129m purchase.

 

He then had to put loans in to cover relegation in 2009 and 2016 (both the fat w*****’s fault and which he should write-off if he had any decency about him – look at how much Ellis Short has written-off down the road) to the tune of about £65m.

 

Yeah, I was just using £100m as an example. I think you're right on the £74m loan, which I think was the Northern Rock part. There were other facilities as well, a huge overdraft facility with Barclays, which they wanted paying down as well - although that part was still in place when the club was  up for sale in 2009.

 

On the 2009 sale, he was writing off the loan. Well, strictly speaking, the loan was getting repaid in full and his shares were being bought for £1 - but same net result, a £100m sale (which dropped to £80m for a very brief period).

 

In 2018 he is obviously forming the view that the club is in a much better position, so he can get his money back and more. Going to look a right twat when we go down and don't bounce straight back up, which I don't think we will do this time if it happens.

[bealios]

Someone clarify or correct.

 

Ashley's initial loan was him paying off the club debt because he didn't do due dilligence?

 

So the club value was what he paid plus that loan to make the club debt-free.  What would that figure be, circa 250m?

 

Any other money spent in the interim since then was part and parcel of running a football club and in addition he's had free advertising and, to my knowledge, has had some of the debt serviced, yes?

 

The TV money dosn't come into the clubs value imo as all the clubs get TV money and it is therefore not a special consideration.

 

The reason I am asking these questions is to try and decide if £250m was ridiculously low, or £380m was ridiculously high.

 

The whole lack of due diligence thing didn't mean he didn't know about the loan, it was more that he didn't realise that it became immediately repayable following a change of control. He knew the loan was there, and the price of £135m reflected that loan. If the club didn't owe £100m to the banks, the club would have been worth a lot more.

 

Being very simplistic, you could say that a debt free NUFC in 2007 was worth £235m, but the fact that there was £100m owed to banks meant Ashley was only going to pay £135m.

 

Assuming NUFC in 2018 is being sold free of Ashley's debt, then it would appear that the £250m would be a tad on the low side if you look at it as how much 2007 NUFC should have increased in value to 2018 NUFC, given the huge increase in TV money. Even after the turmoil of the last 10 years, it isn't unreasonable to suggest that a £235m 2007 NUFC has increased to at least a £300m 2018 NUFC. Perhaps more, given that the international TV money isn't going to disappear any time soon.

 

If you look at the increase in value of other Premier League clubs, then that percentage increase isn't a bad example.

 

 

 

 

 

Isn't the huge increase in TV money offset by the huge increase in player fees and wages? Also considering we have sold most of our player assets, that means we will have to spend one hell of a lot just to catch up with the rest of the division as compared to two years ago.

 

To a degree I think it is, but I think a lot of clubs are a lot healthier now in terms of wages to turnover ratio - we certainly are.

[Altamullan]

Or the alternate is.....Ashley never really wanted to sell, used it as a cover to not spend in the transfer windows. Then oh dear someone showed an interest, and now he's done his best to make them say sod that after lying about them. Knowing there are no other bids, and look at the timing, yet again before an away game and ages before the next home game.

 

Keep us up on the cheap for the next lot of TV money. I mean it's not like we haven't seen all this s*** before is it ?

The only thing we can hope is, that really does want to sell but would you believe a word that man says, about anything ?

Take your point. To me though, such an elaborate smokescreen would only really make sense if he felt he had something to lose (other than the obvious) by overtly choosing not to spend in the January window. What could he lose? He must be well aware he lost the good will of the fan base years ago.

[samag]

They are both very experienced negotiators. Backed by a team of others used to getting the best possible deal; by hook or by crook. He still wants to sell, she/they still want to buy. They can’t agree on a price. No change basically. In effect Ashley’s ‘message’, is just a public way of demonstrating he isn’t willing to accept what they’ve offered. Again, not new information.

 

Only question for me, after Ashley’s ‘move’, is how much does she/they want this? Despite all the extensive number crunching, they will have done, it is that which will determine how much flex there is what they are willing to pay.

 

Spot on

[Odear]

I think he needs the money this time.

 

Lots of factors. Brexit, some poor investments. It’s a good time to have cash.

 

Staveley knows this which is why she low balled him.

 

It’s backfired. Probably how the curry house concluded was “I’m off for my holidays, up your bid to something acceptable and we’ll talk then”

 

No increased bid was made.

 

He throws a strop.

 

This is more of an indication that he’s really desperate to sell (but highly resents losing money on this)

 

Staveley doesn’t have to do anything except wait and see just how desperate he gets.

 

It’s destroying all goodwill we had towards her because she’s just treating the club as any old asset that can be bought and sold. I’m not sure she has the clubs best interests as a priority.

[number9shirt]

What did we learn from sky that we didn't know weeks ago... takeover is off, could still be on, so that'll be nothing then. We're in exactly the same position we have been in for over a month.

[1964]

I think he needs the money this time.

 

Lots of factors. Brexit, some poor investments. It’s a good time to have cash.

 

Staveley knows this which is why she low balled him.

 

It’s backfired. Probably how the curry house concluded was “I’m off for my holidays, up your bid to something acceptable and we’ll talk then”

 

No increased bid was made.

 

He throws a strop.

 

This is more of an indication that he’s really desperate to sell (but highly resents losing money on this)

 

Staveley doesn’t have to do anything except wait and see just how desperate he gets.

 

It’s destroying all goodwill we had towards her because she’s just treating the club as any old asset that can be bought and sold. I’m not sure she has the clubs best interests as a priority.

 

I’m pretty sure that her priorities have never been the clubs best interests. 

[Bimpy474]

Or the alternate is.....Ashley never really wanted to sell, used it as a cover to not spend in the transfer windows. Then oh dear someone showed an interest, and now he's done his best to make them say sod that after lying about them. Knowing there are no other bids, and look at the timing, yet again before an away game and ages before the next home game.

 

Keep us up on the cheap for the next lot of TV money. I mean it's not like we haven't seen all this s*** before is it ?

The only thing we can hope is, that really does want to sell but would you believe a word that man says, about anything ?

Take your point. To me though, such an elaborate smokescreen would only really make sense if he felt he had something to lose (other than the obvious) by overtly choosing not to spend in the January window. What could he lose? He must be well aware he lost the good will of the fan base years ago.

 

I hope you're right i really do, with this idiot you just don't know what he's going to do next. Other than lie of course.

[relámpago blanco]

It is going to be painful for whoever does buy us.  I remember when Ashley fucked off a meeting with Dubai Investment Capital after the KK saga as he thought their offer was derisory.

 

He is a risk taker, he'll take the risk of us going down vs him getting a bit more elsewhere or stumping in the money to keep us up.  It doesn't make a great deal of sense though because surely he can just loan the club 50 million to protect his asset and then when the club is sold the debt remains.  He says he doesn't have the capital to do such but I would imagine it could be easily raised.

 

[Paully]

https://twitter.com/buzza9676/status/953404544515440641

[Figures 1-0 Football]

They are both very experienced negotiators. Backed by a team of others used to getting the best possible deal; by hook or by crook. He still wants to sell, she/they still want to buy. They can’t agree on a price. No change basically. In effect Ashley’s ‘message’, is just a public way of demonstrating he isn’t willing to accept what they’ve offered. Again, not new information.

 

Only question for me, after Ashley’s ‘move’, is how much does she/they want this? Despite all the extensive number crunching, they will have done, it is that which will determine how much flex there is what they are willing to pay.

nail on head

 

[bowlingcrofty]

[Guest chopey]

Could she even raise the cash ?