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Anyone still positive about a takeover?

 

Obviously the Ashley/KBA PR machine starting to crank up is really worrying and it makes sense that Ashley would be willing to gamble on survival on the cheap (or instant promotion if we go down) because he's a gambler and we're talking about a club that is generating at least £100m of excess cash per season if it can stay in the PL.

 

Having said that, and I know I'm clutching at straws here, I still think there's a chance he wants to sell primarily because of the losses on Debenhams, HoF, the issues with SD shares dropping and key staff leaving, etc. The risk of NUFC getting relegated and staying in the Championship is a risk of losing at least £200m on his current valuation. Maybe in prior years he wouldn't be bothered, but if something is going to cause him to sell these high street failures of his will be it.

 

Also, just recapping the "what we know" part in all of this:

 

- Statement from BZG about agreeing terms with Ashley (supposedly confirmed by the club).

- Statement from BZG that proof of funds were sent to Ashley's lawyers in April 2019 and that they are undergoing the PL fit and proper test.

- BZG signing a deal to invest a couple of billion in infrastructure in an Indian state/region (i.e. they're loaded).

- A company called Monochrome Acquisitions Ltd has been set up by BZG.

- Lawyers used by BZG in the UK are ones who specialize in football club takeovers (Pinsent Masons).

- Activity by Ashley to consolidate NUFC related companies/entities, which may or may not mean something.

- SD advertising hoardings that were taken down afaik haven't been replaced.

 

All of this gives me some confidence still that something might happen, providing Ashley is still a willing seller which of course is the sticking point. In terms of possible explanations for the recent reports, it's either desperate egotistical journalists shit stirring with the "no bids/proof of funds/exclusivity" articles because they're pissed about being in the dark like us common folk (and/or their anonymous club sources have no idea what's going on), in which case they may as well print whatever will get them hits or generate controversy. Or it's brinkmanship from Ashley who is trying to get the most that he can from BZG by having his media partners put out anonymised threats that he's willing to walk (setting the groundwork to let them know they'll take the blame through the media if the deal fails, or drumming up fake rival bidders) unless BZG agree to whatever it is that Ashley wants.

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I still think there's a chance he wants to sell primarily because of the losses on Debenhams, HoF, the issues with SD shares dropping and key staff leaving, etc. The risk of NUFC getting relegated and staying in the Championship is a risk of losing at least £200m on his current valuation. Maybe in prior years he wouldn't be bothered, but if something is going to cause him to sell these high street failures of his will be it.

 

This makes no sense.

 

Why would he sell a profit-making part of his empire to prop up the loss-making ones? Surely you do the opposite?

 

OK, unless you're sure you're onto a long-term winner with the loss-making parts, but I don't think anyone (even Ashley) thinks that. He might hope it, but he can't believe it's a certainty. Profit from NUFC is much more likely. To sell that would be crazy, IMO.

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I know it sounds silly but if what Ryder said is real, then it appears to me that Ashley is desperate for BZG’s bid, hence making the noise through Chronicle

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I know it sounds silly but if what Ryder said is real, then it appears to me that Ashley is desperate for BZG’s bid, hence making the noise through Chronicle

 

Yeah the BZG are going to follow the chronicle website lol

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Why would he sell a profit-making part of his empire to prop up the loss-making ones? Surely you do the opposite?

 

OK, unless you're sure you're onto a long-term winner with the loss-making parts, but I don't think anyone (even Ashley) thinks that. He might hope it, but he can't believe it's a certainty. Profit from NUFC is much more likely. To sell that would be crazy, IMO.

 

You've got that the wrong way round. SD is bigger and more profitable than NUFC and SD doesn't have anything akin to relegation threatening to slash its revenues in the space of a couple of months.

 

To put the supposed asking price of £350m into context, that's roughly the operating cashflow of SD over the last 12 months.

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Why would he sell a profit-making part of his empire to prop up the loss-making ones? Surely you do the opposite?

 

OK, unless you're sure you're onto a long-term winner with the loss-making parts, but I don't think anyone (even Ashley) thinks that. He might hope it, but he can't believe it's a certainty. Profit from NUFC is much more likely. To sell that would be crazy, IMO.

 

You've got that the wrong way round. SD is bigger and more profitable than NUFC and SD doesn't have anything akin to relegation threatening to slash its revenues in the space of a couple of months.

 

To put the supposed asking price of £350m into context, that's roughly the operating cashflow of SD over the last 12 months.

 

SD has had £100m worth of free advertising from us, that's got to have affected where the value of the company is at and shows the value of NUFC to SD. Also, I was talking more about all his other businesses than SD, the ones which are loss-making. SD is his baby, I know he sold shares in it years back to raise money, but that's the heart and soul of his empire. It'll be the last thing he permanently gets rid of.

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Guest godzilla

Why would he sell a profit-making part of his empire to prop up the loss-making ones? Surely you do the opposite?

 

OK, unless you're sure you're onto a long-term winner with the loss-making parts, but I don't think anyone (even Ashley) thinks that. He might hope it, but he can't believe it's a certainty. Profit from NUFC is much more likely. To sell that would be crazy, IMO.

 

You've got that the wrong way round. SD is bigger and more profitable than NUFC and SD doesn't have anything akin to relegation threatening to slash its revenues in the space of a couple of months.

 

To put the supposed asking price of £350m into context, that's roughly the operating cashflow of SD over the last 12 months.

 

SD has had £100m worth of free advertising from us, that's got to have affected where the value of the company is at and shows the value of NUFC to SD. Also, I was talking more about all his other businesses than SD, the ones which are loss-making. SD is his baby, I know he sold shares in it years back to raise money, but that's the heart and soul of his empire. It'll be the last thing he permanently gets rid of.

 

The advertising isn't having an impact on SD though if you have a look at the share price over the last few years (and this when the Premier League stock has increased ten-fold), yes he wasn't paying but I put money on it's nowhere near the cost of £100 million mind (we will know next accounts exactly how much as according to the forum minutes he is now paying). By the accounts he has only made £27 million before tax during his tenure of the club also. He has also had to put money into the club on two occasions due to relegation also for the daily operations.

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Also, I was talking more about all his other businesses than SD, the ones which are loss-making. SD is his baby, I know he sold shares in it years back to raise money, but that's the heart and soul of his empire. It'll be the last thing he permanently gets rid of.

 

I think you've got the wrong end of the stick mate. Debenhams, Game, House of Fraser- all of that is owned via SD. Ashley hasn't personally been buying these businesses, although the headlines always talk about him. It's done through SD with money generated by SD's operations (or through their own borrowings from their bank group) and didn't involve any of Ashley's personal funds. Because SD is a plc they have to be very transparent about dealings with their major shareholders so we know Ashley has not put money in or out of SD in recent years. Despite the problems of Debenhams, SD is still massively cash generative.

 

True SD have benefited from free coverage over the years, but bear in mind this is a company with total share value of £1.4bn. I've no idea what the fair rate is for advertising around the ground but a decent benchmark is that Fun88 supposedly pay £8m a year and they get the best package of anyone in having their logo on the shirts as well as everything else. They've certainly been helped, but again need to keep things in context.

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(we will know next accounts exactly how much as according to the forum minutes he is now paying).

 

Will be interesting when that number eventually emerges and whether they really are paying or if that was just another lie to placate the fans' forum.

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