Relegationometer

[Karjala]

Cant see us getting any more than 2pts in our next 6 games, at which point we will be looking good for the drop.

 

 

I would say Cardiff and the mackems are the best chance of points in those 6, as I fear we wont get anything from Liverpool, Man C, Chelsea and Spuds.

[Guest bimpy474]

Cant see us getting any more than 2pts in our next 6 games, at which point we will be looking good for the drop.

 

 

I would say Cardiff and the mackems are the best chance of points in those 6, as I fear we wont get anything from Liverpool, Man C, Chelsea and Spuds.

 

Not sure you get points for beating Man City in the League Cup like.

[Teasy]

Around 3 I think.

Around 8 I know.

 

80% likely to go down?

Aye.. only 56.9% disagree

 

That's your justification?  A internet poll where most people probably don't even equate the numbers to real odds/chance.

 

Are you really being serious or am I being wooshed?

[AyeDubbleYoo]

Around 3 I think.

Around 8 I know.

 

80% likely to go down?

Aye.. only 56.9% disagree

 

That's your justification?  A internet poll where most people probably don't even equate the numbers to real odds/chance.

 

Are you really being serious or am I being wooshed?

 

Tip - don't spend too long trying to figure out the responses to this poll. Sorry I mentioned it really, I know by now.

[Mick]

 

 

Not sure you get points for beating Man City in the League Cup like.

 

I'm not sure Pardew believes you get points for beating them in the league, at least that would explain why we don't bother trying.

[afar]

I was at an 8 when right after we played Man Shitty. Looking back that's a bit pessimistic. In all honesty I don't think we are one of the 3 worst teams in the division, Fulham and Villa have shown me how bad others are. Having said that, looking at the fixture list, we could easily go until Nov 23rd now until we next get a win, especially if the mackems get that new manager thing going again, like they did last time we played them. If that happens we'll be in a huge hole to dig ourselves out of.

At a 5 right now, but worried more the longer the team is manged by this guy.

[AyeDubbleYoo]

I was at an 8 when right after we played Man Shitty. Looking back that's a bit pessimistic.

 

It might have been, aye. 80% chance of relegation after the first game!

[Ronaldo]

I was at an 8 when right after we played Man Shitty. Looking back that's a bit pessimistic.

 

It might have been, aye. 80% chance of relegation after the first game!

 

Not having added to a squad that finished 16th while everyone else invested might have had something to do with his prediction, like.

[loki679]

We actually had more points after our first 6 games last season.

[Teasy]

We actually had more points after our first 6 games last season.

 

Sounds scary until you realise there's never been much of a correlation between the number of points we have after 6 games and where we finish in the league:

 

95/96 - 15 points - 2nd

96/97 - 12 points - 2nd

97/98 - 12 points - 13th

98/99 - 8 points - 13th

99/00 - 1 point - 11th

00/01 - 10 points - 11th

01/02 - 11 points - 4th

02/03 - 7 points - 3rd

03/04 - 3 points - 5th

04/05 - 8 points - 14th

05/06 - 5 points - 7th

06/07 - 7 points - 13th

07/08 - 11 points - 12th

08/09 - 4 points - 18th

10/11 - 7 points - 12th

11/12 - 12 points - 5th

12/13 - 9 points - 16th

[AyeDubbleYoo]

Depends on the fixtures as well I suppose. Not that a defeat to Hull helps with that.

[Teasy]

Of course, that's one of the reasons why there's little correlation.  Six games is simply too small a sample for comparison.

[thomas]

Of course, that's one of the reasons why there's little correlation.  Six games is simply too small a sample for comparison.

It's barely too small. around 8 interesting things become more clear.

 

I did something regarding "# of games in vs. certainty to finish a certain position" a while back, should maybe update it or expand it, but I don't think much has changed since 2010. http://www.newcastle-online.org/nufcforum/index.php/topic,72421.msg2602445.html

 

Top 3 is determined fairly early - once you're in it after ~ 8 games, you almost unerringly do not finish outside of it. 4th-6th you need half a season before being able to say with a degree of certainty. If you're bottom after 9 games you're almost certain to go down. Determining the rest of the bottom 6 takes about half a season.

 

[Teasy]

Nice thread, though I'm talking purely about comparing one season to another based on one teams points and saying "we had more points after six games that season so we'll finish lower this season".  That doesn't work because 6 games is too small a sample to tell you that.

[Mick]

We actually had more points after our first 6 games last season.

 

Sounds scary until you realise there's never been much of a correlation between the number of points we have after 6 games and where we finish in the league:

 

95/96 - 15 points - 2nd

96/97 - 12 points - 2nd

97/98 - 12 points - 13th

98/99 - 8 points - 13th

99/00 - 1 point - 11th - Change of manager

00/01 - 10 points - 11th

01/02 - 11 points - 4th

02/03 - 7 points - 3rd - Sir Bobby

03/04 - 3 points - 5th - Sir Bobby

04/05 - 8 points - 14th

05/06 - 5 points - 7th - Change of manager

06/07 - 7 points - 13th

07/08 - 11 points - 12th

08/09 - 4 points - 18th - Relegated

10/11 - 7 points - 12th - Change of manager

11/12 - 12 points - 5th

12/13 - 9 points - 16th

 

Am I right in thinking that your point is that when we have so few points at this stage we either need to change a manager, have Sir Bobby or get relegated?

[Beren]

Is the issue not that we have so few points given the quality of opposition we've played?

 

It's quite funny to hear Pardew talking about "judge us after 10 games". At the end of the 10 games, I bet he'll wish he'd been judged now instead because our goal difference will be negative double digits, our win % will be lower and the loss % will be higher!

[Mick]

Is the issue not that we have so few points given the quality of opposition we've played?

 

It's quite funny to hear Pardew talking about "judge us after 10 games". At the end of the 10 games, I bet he'll wish he'd been judged now instead because our goal difference will be negative double digits, our win % will be lower and the loss % will be higher!

 

I think we all know the "judge us after 10 games" will be forgotten about, if he's still here.

[cp40]

The issue for me is Ashley waiting for Pardew to Quit to appont JFK., Pardew waiting for the sack. The players know it and nobody is giving a shit, it will change or end in RELEGATION.

[r0cafella]

Is the issue not that we have so few points given the quality of opposition we've played?

 

It's quite funny to hear Pardew talking about "judge us after 10 games". At the end of the 10 games, I bet he'll wish he'd been judged now instead because our goal difference will be negative double digits, our win % will be lower and the loss % will be higher!

 

I think we all know the "judge us after 10 games" will be forgotten about, if he's still here.

 

Exactly just like how he spouted it last year.

 

We'll be judging this man until the end of time.

[Teasy]

We actually had more points after our first 6 games last season.

 

Sounds scary until you realise there's never been much of a correlation between the number of points we have after 6 games and where we finish in the league:

 

95/96 - 15 points - 2nd

96/97 - 12 points - 2nd

97/98 - 12 points - 13th

98/99 - 8 points - 13th

99/00 - 1 point - 11th - Change of manager

00/01 - 10 points - 11th

01/02 - 11 points - 4th

02/03 - 7 points - 3rd - Sir Bobby

03/04 - 3 points - 5th - Sir Bobby

04/05 - 8 points - 14th

05/06 - 5 points - 7th - Change of manager

06/07 - 7 points - 13th

07/08 - 11 points - 12th

08/09 - 4 points - 18th - Relegated

10/11 - 7 points - 12th - Change of manager

11/12 - 12 points - 5th

12/13 - 9 points - 16th

 

Am I right in thinking that your point is that when we have so few points at this stage we either need to change a manager, have Sir Bobby or get relegated?

 

You arent no, as I didnt say other seasons where we've had 7 or less points after 6 games were indicitive of this season.  In fact quite the opposite, I said none of them were.  Because 6 games is too small a sample for that kind of comparison.

 

Like most people I think we're going to have a bad season if things dont change (most notably the manager).  But thats based on much more than our current points total vs other seasons after the same number of games.  I mean we could have 10 points now and that wouldnt convince me we're going to have a good season.

[mrmojorisin75]

Like most people I think we're going to have a bad season if things dont change (most notably the manager).  But thats based on much more than our current points total vs other seasons after the same number of games.  I mean we could have 10 points now and that wouldnt convince me we're going to have a good season.

 

[loki679]

I agree, 6 games is too small a sample to make a meaningful comparison.  Just gives me an uneasy feeling when I look at the quality of the opposition we've faced, I would expect a better return than what we have.  I don't think we'll go down, i'm about a 2 on the relegationometer but the signs are pointing to another shit season of nothing.

[cp40]

4ish

[Optimistic Nut]

Still 2. Crystal Palace, Sunderland & Cardiff for starters won't finish within 5 points of us imo.

[Mick]

Still 2. Crystal Palace, Sunderland & Cardiff for starters won't finish within 5 points of us imo.

 

I think you're right, the 3 relegation places look as if they're taken already.  Norwich, Stoke and Fulham are more likely than we are to scrape around at the bottom.