Eddie Howe

[Super Duper Branko Strupar]

20 hours ago, Dokko said:

 

Well it is. If he doesn't get the wins with this months fixtures, the club will be looking at a new manager come the end of the season. We'd be out of both domestic cups, and at best have a play off in CL before being dumped out next round (I'd still think that would be a successful CL campaign not judging the domestic comps) He gets the wins and it sets up the season and we have something to play for. 

 

He's had all season to turn it around, so far we've seen little sign of it. This isn't a blip, we've been poor all season and the back end of last one as well. You can't keep under performing and burning through winnable games and expect to stay in a job. The season is at the halfway point and at a crossroads. This is a massive month, it could decide not just the fate of the manager, but a lot of the players as well.

 

Decision may already have been made with his 99.9% comments, and could explain why the players just aren't performing for him. That aside, it's crunch time for us and him.  

Silly, this. 

[Chicken Dancer]

38 minutes ago, SteV said:

15/20 mins at the most. And he partly acknowledged that.

 

But he’s right to fight back against the narrative that it was a game where we went ahead early then desperately clung on after. If anything, we were the team that subsequently created the better chances.

Maybe I’m remembering it wrong. We we were pretty shit the back end of the first half too, though not near as bad as the first half of the second half. 
 

We definitely had the better chances and were the better team, but not by much. 

[midds]

The Fotmob momentum thing is generally pretty accurate imo. 7 big chances created too - not sure what constitutes 'big' mind

[SteV]

1 minute ago, Chicken Dancer said:

Maybe I’m remembering it wrong. We we were pretty shit the back end of the first half too, though not near as bad as the first half of the second half. 
 

We definitely had the better chances and were the better team, but not by much. 

By no means am I saying that we they didn’t cause us big problems at times, and that on another day they couldn’t easily have scored at least one more.

 

But as I said the morning after, look at the actual numbers for the second half, which was viewed by some as the ‘onslaught’ period:

 

 

When I was at the game I remember thinking in that first 15-20 mins of that second half, ‘I really don’t like the way this is going’. The game was mad frenetic, and they were getting the better of it as we were turning the ball over far too much before we’d even got to the final third.

 

However, there was a point where we managed to get a couple of minutes of controlled possession (can’t recall exactly when, 65, maybe even as late as 70 mins) and I thought ‘this is a lot better’. From that point on I was a lot less concerned about conceding again, other than the fact we’ve just been conceding out of nothing this season, but it no longer felt like it ‘was coming’.

 

I also think we (including myself in this) probably underestimated Burnley. For all the negative pre-match score predictions based on our away form, I think deep-down most expected us to win. But as Eddie pointed out, no one has really gone there so far this season and won ‘easily’. Maybe Arsenal. 
 

Unfortunately we’re probably going to have the same issue going into Wolves in a couple of weeks, as they’re nowhere near as bad as their pathetic points total would suggest.

[SteV]

11 minutes ago, midds said:

The Fotmob momentum thing is generally pretty accurate imo. 7 big chances created too - not sure what constitutes 'big' mind

I’m guessing:

 

Three goals

Wissa header

Barnes 1v1

Gordon blaze over

Murphy open(ish) goal miss

[Chicken Dancer]

1 minute ago, SteV said:

By no means am I saying that we they didn’t cause us big problems at times, and that on another day they couldn’t easily have scored at least one more.

 

But as I said the morning after, look at the actual numbers for the second half, which was viewed by some as the ‘onslaught’ period:

 

 

When I was at the game I remember thinking in that first 15-20 mins of that second half, ‘I really don’t like the way this is going’. The game was mad frenetic, and they were getting the better of it as we were turning the ball over far too much before we’d even got to the final third.

 

However, there was a point where we managed to get a couple of minutes of controlled possession (can’t recall exactly when, 65, maybe even as late as 70 mins) and I thought ‘this is a lot better’. From that point on I was a lot less concerned about conceding again, other than the fact we’ve just been conceding out of nothing this season, but it no longer felt like it ‘was coming’.

 

I also think we (including myself in this) probably underestimated Burnley. For all the negative pre-match score predictions based on our away form, I think deep-down most expected us to win. But as Eddie pointed out, no one has really gone there so far this season and won ‘easily’. Maybe Arsenal. 
 

Unfortunately we’re probably going to have the same issue going into Wolves in a couple of weeks, as they’re nowhere near as bad as their pathetic points total would suggest.

We definitely got a lot better about the time you mentioned and managed the game far more efficiently after that, but the period prior was about as awful as parts of the West Ham and Brentford games for sure. We couldn’t get the ball out at times and it didn’t feel much different to 90% of the away performances this season (to me anyway). 
 

Whilst I agree stats are a good barometer, the eye test is the better when judging performance. The stats probably show we were far better than Wolves and Fulham at home but it never felt like that on the day to me. 

[Fak]

 

[Nucasol]

4 minutes ago, Fak said:

 

Presuming this was EH bitchslapping the Ronnie Gill’s resident moron. 

[SteV]

1 minute ago, Nucasol said:

Presuming this was EH bitchslapping the Ronnie Gill’s resident moron. 

Yes. But in a slightly jovial manner, and ended with a smile, as opposed to Bruce-style ‘you calling me a liar’ and being on the verge of offering him out.

[SteV]

19 minutes ago, Chicken Dancer said:

We definitely got a lot better about the time you mentioned and managed the game far more efficiently after that, but the period prior was about as awful as parts of the West Ham and Brentford games for sure. We couldn’t get the ball out at times and it didn’t feel much different to 90% of the away performances this season (to me anyway). 
 

Whilst I agree stats are a good barometer, the eye test is the better when judging performance. The stats probably show we were far better than Wolves and Fulham at home but it never felt like that on the day to me. 

I think our perceptions of whatever opposition we’re playing definitely impacts our view of how a game actually went.

 

If we’d been playing one of the better teams the other night, I don’t think anyone would have viewed that second half as an ‘onslaught’.

 

Of course, it’s fair to expect us to have more of the play when we’re playing a team at the bottom as opposed to the top, but it shouldn’t influence our view on what actually happened.

[Izakaya]

16 minutes ago, Nucasol said:

Presuming this was EH bitchslapping the Ronnie Gill’s resident moron. 

I mean, he does kind of say his plan B is to keep doing plan A til it works...

[Chicken Dancer]

3 minutes ago, SteV said:

I think our perceptions of whatever opposition we’re playing definitely impacts our view of how a game actually went.

 

If we’d been playing one of the better teams the other night, I don’t think anyone would have viewed that second half as an ‘onslaught’.

 

Of course, it’s fair to expect us to have more of the play when we’re playing a team at the bottom as opposed to the top, but it shouldn’t influence our view on what actually happened.

Yes you’re absolutely on the money there, I think it’s the fact it was Burnley is part of the reason people (me) were so disappointed (but not surprised) at how poorly we played for a big chunk of the game Tuesday. 
 

Obviously I know every away game is a tough game and I was quite clear in the matchday thread after the game that the result is ultimately the most important thing, but it felt no different to most games this season, just thankfully with a better result. 

[SteV]

2 minutes ago, Chicken Dancer said:

Yes you’re absolutely on the money there, I think it’s the fact it was Burnley is part of the reason people (me) were so disappointed (but not surprised) at how poorly we played for a big chunk of the game Tuesday. 
 

Obviously I know every away game is a tough game and I was quite clear in the matchday thread after the game that the result is ultimately the most important thing, but it felt no different to most games this season, just thankfully with a better result. 

That’s what I mean. 
 

You can think ‘it’s Burnley’, so therefore we shouldn’t be under that much pressure. Not sure I fully agree with that, but I definitely understand it.

 

But as a result, we end up thinking we’ve been under more pressure than we actually were, because it was more than we thought it would be.

 

It’s a bit like boxing. If there’s a close fight between a strong favourite and an underdog that goes to points, everyone kinda feels the underdog should get the decision, even if the favourite was probably the (close) winner, just because they did better than was expected.

[The College Dropout]

I know some models count a chance over 0.3Xg as a big chance. As in 1 in 3 times that opportunity is a goal as a minimum which is fair.

 

 

That's what Howe's system is good at generating for the right type of 9. Central-ish penalty box shots are high Xg and likely to be big chances.

 

Some players take lots of shots so will always have decent-ish Xg.. think Mitro was like that. So as an FPL guy I had to pay more attention to his Big Chances.

 

----

It is Howe's management style to ride out momentum in games through determination, work rate and a bit of luck. It's the same when we are good or bad. We've faced far worse "onslaughts" and he's not made any changes so Burnley was light by comparison.

 

I said this years ago and got a load of stick for it. A few years later I appreciate sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. Like it's not necessary as a boxer to react to every feint. I've seen Emery make more proactive subs which sometimes just kills the game for Villa. He shifts and it just doesn't work, team is lost. So the key is - can we do it well? It requires a high level of commitment and determination and physical exertion. My issue is that i don't think we can do it well enough without Joelinton. i think that style needs a Dan Burn and Joelinton (I include Schar, Pope etc. to a lesser degeree Trippier & Livra). Physical monsters that win duels, win headers, leaders, committed, composure, make every block etc. That leans into an older squad profile with experience and a certain type of character. I think we needed an Ederson or Gallagher in midfield, I'm not sure Ramsey is of that grinding physical monster mould - Gallagher is like a baby Tonali from memory. It's hard to get a young keeper - he needs to be a big personality (like a young Pickford), because the Howe system needs you to be big and bold. Come out and grab/punch these crosses time and again.

 

I think that's a learning from his Bournemouth days. He likes Ramsdale as a player but having a Ramsdale in goal rather than a Pope was probably the difference between relegation and staying up for him. Likewise going for an unproven Solanke over a more establoshed ST - that choice cost them survival. So here he doesn't want to take risks. 

[TRon]

13 hours ago, Cf said:

 

How many other teams in the PL aren't suffering from this?

 

I reckon only Arsenal have been properly consistent.

 

Pretty much everyone else though has had ups and downs. Just points to a strong league this season imo.

 

Yeah that's fair, every game seems to be a battle this season. Games are going to be a slog, I'm just surprised at few games we've managed to establish some control. I don't expect us to batter the weaker teams, but I would expect us to at least have most of the possession, even if we can't find a way through. Like City against Sunderland yesterday for example.

 

That said, maybe our high intensity style doesn't lend itself well to that. Although you could argue we haven't really been that high intensity this season. 

[Jesse Pinkman]

What’s more concerning is he basically admitted he doesn’t have a Plan B and the players just need to execute Plan A better. 

 

 

Edited January 2 by Jesse Pinkman

[gdm]

 

[Maggies]

It all turns a bit too frantic/manic when we lose momentum in a game. Seem to drop too deep and don’t have technical enough wingers to regain control.

 

That plus seeming to have moved away a little from our intense/physical identity at the precise time teams are launching all free kicks, corners and throw ins into the box.

 

 

[TRon]

1 hour ago, Nucasol said:

Presuming this was EH bitchslapping the Ronnie Gill’s resident moron. 

 

 

They did have a decent spell in the game where they were well on top tbf. 

[arnonel]

Do we really expect to dominate teams for 90? Not how it works unfortunately

[Kid Icarus]

"Plan B? You have to perfect your ideas".

 

"I always believe when it doesn't work well, it is because you have to perfect your idea".

 

"I don't have to change anything. I'm more convinced that what we have done in the past we can still do. It's just that we need to apply ourselves better"

 

“This season we've lost games not because we didn’t have a ‘Plan B’ but it was about having difficulties in different games. If somebody speaks to me about ‘Plan A’ or ‘Plan B’ I don’t really understand, as it's never the case.”

 

 

[TRC]

Those quotes are a bit deflating weren’t getting Wolte and Wissa at the same time are we?

[The Prophet]

From today:

 

“We have lots of ways of playing, but within the structure and the principles of what we believe in. I see countless managers asked about Plan Bs, but you have to be careful. We have a very strong plan for every situation, we just need to deliver it better.”

 

 

Edited January 2 by The Prophet

[Kid Icarus]

Those quotes were from tactical fuckwits Pep Guardiola and Jurgen Klopp btw. If only they'd listen to Lee Ryder and Newcastle Twitter's resident mensa members.

[Gawalls]

10 minutes ago, TRC said:

Those quotes are a bit deflating weren’t getting Wolte and Wissa at the same time are we?

Is it in the Plan A? If not then doesn't sound like it