Eddie Howe

[Nucasol]

27 minutes ago, The College Dropout said:

UEFA need to confirm maximum allowance but this is the assumption.

 

It gets sticky if Villa win Conference or Brighton win Europa.

Can’t see Brighton winning it, the injuries are now racking up.

[The College Dropout]

18 minutes ago, timeEd32 said:

 

Kieran is great, but there's a couple problems in this comparison. Caveat that no source is perfect and I trust Kieran more than anyone, but I think even he'd agree with the following:

• Only 6 of the 20 clubs include 2022/23 numbers in what you linked so it's not yet a perfect comparison. Villa's wages from 21/22 to now will have increased considerably as one example.
• Player contracts are heavily incentivized with various bonuses and our 2022/23 accounts include Champions League bonuses, so those numbers are inflated from our 'base' wages. 
  • This is called out in our accounts: "Staff costs increased £16.5m ... the main factors being higher merit-based bonuses for the playing squad, team management, and club staff as a result of the club's 4th placed finish..."
• Most clubs don't separate out players from other staff in their accounts so you're getting full club wages. Since this is generally apples to apples it's fine, except the next part of that line from our accounts is "...along with the increase of c100 employees across the club as the build out continues across football operations, commercial teams, executive and central support functions."
  • Obviously players wages are the main driving force, but we have been adding a lot of staff that are mostly not helping us today. We've added around £2.5m in executive team pay since the Charnley days, which is basically a squad player.

That said, we're probably 7th or 8th. I'd put us in a trio with Villa and West Ham, who aren't miles behind and also added to their wage bill this year. Four points currently separate 7th-11th and I'd guess that group stays pretty tight. I'd love for us to qualify for Europe, but given what we've dealt with I'm not going to freak out if we finish a handful of points shy.

 

1. I agree with this - which is why I didn't reference Villa in particular as I assume their wages have increased a lot. West Ham's like-for-like I think is significant. The difference to West Ham is £50m. That's the salary for Isak, Botman, Bruno, Tonali - bonuses and all. The gap to Villa will be smaller I'm sure. For comparison, an extra £50m puts us above Spurs and in league with Arsenal. We are in a different league in wages to West Ham, Brighton and Wolves. Finishing below 1 of them... ok. But all 3? That's a bad season.

2. This is a fair point. Those bonuses were earned as meritocratically as possible though.

3. I'm using this to judge the whole club's performance. Players, staff, management, and leadership. It's not just Howe. Those people are meant to eventually add value on the grass through better scouting, data analysis, injury prevention, psychonalysis etc. And again it's like for like.

 

My point isn't to say Howe is a failure and must be sacked. But if we finish 9th or below - it's a bad season and an underperformance. I still think we finish 7th.

 

The biggest issue with Kieran's data for me is that it's always a window or two behind the current state. 

 

 

Edited February 28 by The College Dropout

[nufc123]

7 minutes ago, Fezzle said:

Seriously? Of the hundreds of absolutely ridiculous posts in this thread thats your weird threshold.......

Because they want this or that for the manager they want the team to lose? Get out.

[The College Dropout]

1 minute ago, Nucasol said:

Can’t see Brighton winning it, the injuries are now racking up.

It's Liverpool's to lose. They are heavy favourites. It's just an example.

[timeEd32]

2 minutes ago, The College Dropout said:

1. I agree with this - which is why I didn't reference Villa in particular as I assume their wages have increased a lot. West Ham's like-for-like I think is significant. The difference to West Ham is £50m. That's the salary for Isak, Botman, Bruno, Tonali - bonuses and all. The gap to Villa will be smaller I'm sure. For comparison, an extra £50m puts us above Spurs and in league with Arsenal.

2. This is a fair point. Those bonuses were earned as meritocratically as possible though.

3. I'm using this to judge the whole club's performance. Players, staff, management, and leadership. It's not just Howe. Those people are meant to eventually add value on the grass through better scouting, data analysis, injury prevention, psychonalysis etc. And again it's like for like.

 

My point isn't to say Howe is a failure and must be sacked. But if we finish 9th or below - it's a bad season and an underperformance. I still think we finish 7th.

 

The biggest issue with Kieran's data for me is that it's always a window or two behind the current state. 

 

All fair. I think really the only place you and I differ greatly is on how much latitude to give for the injuries. 

[sushimonster85]

That Falk bloke is definitely not a semi-reliable source.

[Coffee_Johnny]

3 hours ago, Colos Short and Curlies said:

there’s another part to that in that maybe Eddies strength is in taking a club at rock bottom and building it up, but then isn’t the one who sustains and adds the cherry.

 

they are different skill sets and have different pressures. People often say a Mourinho or Ancellotti wouldn’t do well at a Bournemouth, and they are probably right but they are 2 of the best at managing the big clubs 

Ok, but it just sounds like another complicated theory built on dodgy assumptions. Not sure why the simple we are/have been massively stretched injury/availability wise and whilst we have players returning they’re evidently not up to full speed and we are particularly lacking energy and steel in the middle. Lots of words in that sentence but it’s a pretty assumption-free observation. 

[Mattoon]

I think people are writing off fatigue as an excuse and completely overlooking the long term effects of burnout. Yes, we might be playing a lot less games now and only once a week and we've got players coming back from injury to help with rotation. But these players aren't going to hit the ground running and the 11 that played every minute of every game for 2 months won't recover from burnout overnight, the physiological and psychological effects of exhaustion can take months to recover from, sometimes as long as a year. I think we'll see a slow improvement but I don't think we'll see a full recovery any time soon.

[SUPERTOON]

 

[timeEd32]

11 minutes ago, Mattoon said:

I think people are writing off fatigue as an excuse and completely overlooking the long term effects of burnout. Yes, we might be playing a lot less games now and only once a week and we've got players coming back from injury to help with rotation. But these players aren't going to hit the ground running and the 11 that played every minute of every game for 2 months won't recover from burnout overnight, the physiological and psychological effects of exhaustion can take months to recover from, sometimes as long as a year. I think we'll see a slow improvement but I don't think we'll see a full recovery any time soon.

 

I'm 100% with you on this. It will get branded as an excuse, which I guess it kind of is. But my new least favorite genre of posts are the ones that act like a magic switch has been flipped along with those that seem to imply fatigue issues were invented as a means to give Eddie a pass.

 

"We were told fatigue was the reason for December..." <--- You shouldn't need to be told anything. Open your eyes

 

"We have players back, what's the excuse now?" <--- Umm, we're still missing critical ones and the impact of the last few months doesn't just disappear overnight.

"I guess 30 minutes of extra time will be the excuse for the next month." <--- 

[Holmesy]

6 minutes ago, SUPERTOON said:

 

Good. Busy summer sounds like exactly what we need.

[Lush Vlad]

6 minutes ago, timeEd32 said:

 

I'm 100% with you on this. It will get branded as an excuse, which I guess it kind of is. But my new least favorite genre of posts are the ones that act like a magic switch has been flipped along with those that seem to imply fatigue issues were invented as a means to give Eddie a pass.

 

"We were told fatigue was the reason for December..." <--- You shouldn't need to be told anything. Open your eyes

 

"We have players back, what's the excuse now?" <--- Umm, we're still missing critical ones and the impact of the last few months doesn't just disappear overnight.

"I guess 30 minutes of extra time will be the excuse for the next month." <--- 

Throw in the fact the players back from injury. Clearly look like they’re playing earlier than ideal due to needs must. Or perhaps for other reasons. They have been taking a long time to get up to speed post injury. 
 

Isak and Botman have not looked right pretty much all season. Barnes hasn’t even got to grips with Howe’s system and has missed 3-4 months. Willock has played what, the equivalent of 5 x 90 minute games all told? 
 

Not having it that Longstaff is fully fit. He is that far off it. Trippier and Burn have been nursing injuries. I’m sure I’ve missed a few. Murphy? 

[Toon No9]

11 minutes ago, Holmesy said:

Good. Busy summer sounds like exactly what we need.

Yeah, and Eddie Howe longterm is exactly what we need aswell!

[timeEd32]

I'm quite sure I'm going to take great joy in revisiting the last 250+ pages sometime in 2024.

 

For future reference, the Everton game is on page 1074. 

[mouldy_uk]

23 minutes ago, Holmesy said:

Good. Busy summer sounds like exactly what we need.

Busy summer selling our stars 

 

[Holmesy]

3 minutes ago, mouldy_uk said:

Busy summer selling our stars 

 

Hopefully a busy summer selling our dross. There’s plenty of it 

[huss9]

3 hours ago, Away Toon said:

I think that's the worst I've seen us play under Howe last night, there wasn't one thing we did well as a team . There are less and less mitigating circumstances. We do not look like a well coached team.

nah, we created  a  few chances.

there's games we've created fuck all.

[Mattoon]

Blackburn did their research, they packed defence, stayed organised, limited space and hit us fast on the counter. I don't think we were horrific, we were disjointed, had a tough time finding a way through them and left gaps between the lines. They played well to our weaknesses. Definitely nowhere near our best but we still found a way to win, which has to be a positive.

[STM]

1 game away from 2 Wembley visits in 2 years and sandwiched between we had a CL qualification.

 

Also, in this year of mediocrity we've beaten Man City, Man Utd, Chelsea, Arsenal, PSG, not to mention a good away win at Villa and 2 good draws away in the CL. Oh and Sunderland away. Oh and our highest ever away win.

 

We are in a desperately bad patch of form, which was born out of an injury crisis and which morphed into a crisis of confidence.

 

Has Eddie Howe made all the correct decisions? No. He should have switched Burn out sooner, perhaps changed formation in midfield and could have been a bit smarter when it comes to bringing players back from injury but that's a bump in the road in what has been a brilliant procession over the last 2 years.

 

It's time people (some) put their big boy pants on and understand that it was never going to be a straight line to success. 

 

We might get beat on Saturday against Wolves and while it will be frustrating, let's not be like Simon Jordan. Let's see the long term picture and back Eddie into the the next season.

[AyeDubbleYoo]

22 minutes ago, STM said:

1 game away from 2 Wembley visits in 2 years and sandwiched between we had a CL qualification.

 

Also, in this year of mediocrity we've beaten Man City, Man Utd, Chelsea, Arsenal, PSG, not to mention a good away win at Villa and 2 good draws away in the CL. Oh and Sunderland away. Oh and our highest ever away win.

 

We are in a desperately bad patch of form, which was born out of an injury crisis and which morphed into a crisis of confidence.

 

Has Eddie Howe made all the correct decisions? No. He should have switched Burn out sooner, perhaps changed formation in midfield and could have been a bit smarter when it comes to bringing players back from injury but that's a bump in the road in what has been a brilliant procession over the last 2 years.

 

It's time people (some) put their big boy pants on and understand that it was never going to be a straight line to success. 

 

We might get beat on Saturday against Wolves and while it will be frustrating, let's not be like Simon Jordan. Let's see the long term picture and back Eddie into the the next season.

 

A thousand times this. 

 

Personally I love attending every game at the moment, I find it relaxed and generally fun. We really need to learn to enjoy the ride.

[Gawalls]

9 hours ago, Thumbheed said:

Our counter press doesn't seem as effective nowadays.

 

 

People have figured us out, have changed their game and come prepared where we do the same time and time again.  We caught them off guard last season where this season they’re catching us off guard it would seem.

[Big Jow]

7 hours ago, Yorkie said:

 

I think it's absolute nonsense saying there's no in-between. I think the majority take the view that he's doing an admirable job under difficult circumstances but isn't without errors (that being the very definition of 'in-between'), then a small minority taking the obscene view that the team is a disgrace and he needs sacking. I routinely defend Howe but I don't see it as making excuses at all. 

 

"You can't criticise Howe round 'ere fnar fnar" is being leveled at people calling out those chatting shit comparing him to Bruce and/or saying his time's up.

 

There’s a post on this very thread that states people “hide” by saying they are in-between because they hate Howe and want him sacked. 

 

People like @The College Dropout and others put forward reasonable analysis and posts about the errors Howe has made and they get ridiculed or lambasted for it. Myself included in that.

 

There is a small minority making bizarre comments (comparison to Bruce, being one example) but you also have people on the other end of the spectrum who act as if you’ve stolen their first born if you suggest Howe could’ve done better this season.

[Big Jow]

I didn’t understand why we moved Isak to the wing and put Gordon up top yesterday in the first half. Thinking about it, Isak has looked a shadow of himself since returning from his recent injury. But as others have pointed out here the midfield rarely get him into the game.

 

Nail on the head regarding the midfield not functioning in either direction. Ultimately though we need a solution to that other than hoping the return of Willock and Anderson will solve it all.

[Heron]

Not sure if this is the right thread to talk tactics rather than specifically about Eddie, but here goes nothing...

 

At the game last night, something I'd already noticed for several weeks became really, really evident to me and it was relating to our defensive tactics on both wings. Everyone is so focused on Dan Burn in particular, and the game that he is specifically playing, but not so much analysis of why he's playing it the way he is.

 

Don't get me wrong, whilst I have a massive soft spot for Dan Burn, being a lanky, Geordie who played defence, I know he's no Roberto Carlos, but he is a very steady and solid defender. (I am going to refrain from saying anyone "gives there all" throughout this as that is a prerequisite nowadays not a nicety. Thanks Eddie!)

 

But what is very, very clear is that our midfield 3 are always either very narrow or simply not capable of covering the ground we're expecting of them. That may be down to fatigue (which we can ultimately attribute to injuries) or maybe the physicality of certain personnel but they certainly don't provide protection to the full backs.

 

That raises the question of "should they be?"

 

In a traditional 4-4-2 if the ball was switched to your (defensive) right. The left back would usually sit ever so slightly deepest and command the line, telling everyone what's going on. At which point the opposition RW would be pushed up against your LB and the opposition RB would occasionally press forward, being picked up by your LW. That isn't happening now.

 

I've been questioning to myself whether this was through a tactical design, an element of risk if you like - shit or bust, or whether it was the personnel again (in this case Gordon). Since the return of Barnes, and watching us play, it appears it was the former, and this was only further highlighted last night when Almiron came on - with zero protection then becoming available to Trippier (and later Tino), who was doubled-up-upon a few times in his short time on the pitch.

 

To me the idea appears to be that, alright, we might be punished, but if they don't, we can punish them, and the fortune of the game lies in the oppositions hands whether they're willing to take that chance.

 

It's a confident approach, having faith in our attacking capability, and that has arguably worked, but what it has done has been a catalyst in us conceding a lot more, and subsequently losing a lot more confidence. The way we began the season and our season up until our 5th CL game was by and large positive, but once the hour mark in that last CL game was hit, it's been a very slow downward spiral of perceived confidence and poor performance for me.

 

I say this in hindsight, and of course, hindsight is a wonderful thing, but I do wonder if - had we returned to our defensive rigidity and ability to see games out 'to nil' from early last season where we'd be now, if not in terms of league position but in terms of mentality.

 

I wonder if this is something we should still resort to.

 

There was always something quite - I'm gonna use "romantic" but that's not quite right when we were simply unbeatable and teams couldn't score past us, given our motto is Fortiter Defendit Triumphans.

 

Footballers don't become bad footballers overnight, so that's why I find it difficult to swallow when people berate the likes of Burn. What I do question though, is how much communication is being made when any of our full-backs find themselves in these predicaments.

 

Our midfield 3, they're just lacking that tenacity to really grab a game by the bollocks. That's not a reflection on their ability but moreso their athleticism and personality. That's why Joelinton or an equivalent being missing has been somewhat catastrophic for us in my opinion. I do wonder, not just of our midfield but of our 'leaders' whether we have a real 'bastard' in the team. The shithousery has all but gone and we seem to lack aggression. A bi-product of low confidence, I suspect.

 

Yet we have one technical wizard in Bruno, one work horse in Longstaff and a very smart, tidy, technical player in Miley.

 

This brings me to the forwards, or moreso our forward play, when I watch Isak up top with Gordon et al, I cannot help but feel Isak is somewhat chained. With Gordon and at present Murphy or Miggy hugging those bylines, it's occupying the space for Isak to spin out into, and I'd like to see those wide forwards perhaps making reverse runs back across inside as Isak spins into the channels more.

 

On nights like last night though, whether we release the ball into said channels in a timely manner is another thing. Our intent wasn't there last night, and things by and large down to a nervousness and lack of confidence. Too many short passes to make our way from one side of the pitch to the other and so slow it simply allowed the opposition to reset. We did it at goal kicks too, Dan Burn in acres of space as our front men jogged forward and we waited 30 seconds for them to get in and reset with 3 men around Burn only to pump it to him when he was marked.

 

(Apologies if this is a TLDR but I promise I'm nearly done)

 

The irony of this post is that ultimately, I struggle to see what's wrong. It truly dumbfounds me. This same team, a similar set up, is and can ultimately be so, so effective and I know it. Unbeatable on its day even. Yet the only solution I can provide is to revert to shutting up shop a bit and returning to last years tactics. Self preservation if you like. We just need to get our mojo back and not let a decent season peter out.

 

This isn't all on Howe, it's not on anyone, we've just had a multitude of contributory factors in us not having quite what we need to really have that 'edge', but we must stick with him and with 'it', because we absolutely will find the answer in time.

 

 

Edited February 28 by Heron

[Tiresias]

I think genuinely Joelinton was the most important player to Howeball, he protected defence, won the ball back, carried upfield protected dan burn and was everywhere. We can talk tactics all we like etc just don't think we can play close to the same without him unfortunately.