The Relegationometer™ (2023/24)

[Yorkie]

59 minutes ago, midds said:

Still well and truly in the shit but the table looks a little kinder than it did this morning. We will probably need a freak result over Xmas to stay in touch but 4 points in a week has made it much more doable now. 

 

Still livid at Clark for Tuesday night, I reckon his utter fucking stupidity cost us another 2 points. 

 

Definitely. Clearly we had it in us to get the monkey off our backs, as proven today. I see/saw absolutely nothing to suggest that we wouldn't have done so on Tuesday had we not deliberately obstructed ourselves. Infuriating that this isn't six points with Norwich rooted but we'll have to take it. 

[Superior Acuña]

I'm not very confident we'll pick anything up the rest of this month, and I think Watford will. So I don't know what people define as 'in touch', but reckon decent chance we're more than 6 points adrift. Would be good to start the January closer especially cos of appealing to players, but ultimately it doesn't matter much if we're not 'in touch' at beginning of January but are in Feb. If we're back in touch, we're back in contention. Have to take each game as it comes and remember how quickly a gap near the bottom can close with a good run.

 

I thought we'd win today so my assessment hasn't changed much since Norwich. Likely but not doomed, and not determined by next run of games. Probably a 7.

 

 

Edited December 4, 2021 by Inferior Acuña

[wormy]

Until we start falling behind thanks to the upcoming terrible run, I'll stick with my 5.

[Guest]

7

[et tu brute]

17 minutes ago, Ankles Bennett said:

The EPL  have only accepted that PIF is separate from the KSA state because yhey received written assurance of such.  All they need to do is undermine that written assurance by casting reasonable doubt upon its veracity and therr are your grounds to disqualify PIF!

 

 

It would be thrown straight out of court even if they did try - they won't by the way. The anti-competition, the restraint of trade law courts and even the government would have a field day if they even attempted that. Reasonable doubt does not stand up in the courts by the way, they have to have definitive proof that is the case. 

[GWN]

8.75 , still can’t see us surviving.

[mouldy_uk]

7 - If we can pinch a few points from the next few games and our nearest opponents don’t go on any crazy runs then we may have a chance. Keeping morale high if we get bummed a few times is going to be tough  

 

 

[Geordie Ahmed]

If we had gotten 6 points from the last 2 games I would have been at a 7 but the 4 points puts me on 8.

 

For me the 8 stays as long as we are no more than 6 points adrift come January

 

 

Edited December 4, 2021 by Geordie Ahmed
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[Thiago]

Honestly, no point looking forward now as there was before today. We've won, that weight is off us, now let's just enjoy it again.

[prefabtoon]

The Bookmakers have it any two from three with Norwich down even after Norwich picked up points lately.

This is how the betting looks and the percentage chance of relegation.

Norwich 2/9  Prob %  77.5%

NUFC     4/5  Prob %  51%

Watford  4/6  Prob %  51%

Burnley   4/5  Prob %  50%

 

So it is going to be very close looking at the betting, And we still have a shout after today.

[Superior Acuña]

Just realized if Murphy scored that late one on one v Watford we'd be level on points with them 

[HaydnNUFC]

That win today will have unfounded levels of confidence boosts to both the players and fans. We'll be going to Leicester with the belief we can win, which if we should, we could be level on points with safety. 

[GWN]

2 hours ago, prefabtoon said:

The Bookmakers have it any two from three with Norwich down even after Norwich picked up points lately.

This is how the betting looks and the percentage chance of relegation.

Norwich 2/9  Prob %  77.5%

NUFC     4/5  Prob %  51%

Watford  4/6  Prob %  51%

Burnley   4/5  Prob %  50%

 

So it is going to be very close looking at the betting, And we still have a shout after today.

 

 

The reaction of the Burnley fans at the end of the game was interesting, they were livid, they were as I expected strong but offered nothing going forward other than lump it up to Woods and get men around him, no chance that football stays up .

[Raconteur]

Current poll results:

 

People who think we are staying up (voted 0-5) - 24 (11.9%)

People who think we are mathematically certain to go down (voted 10) - 40 (19.8%)

 

Howay, lads  

[r0cafella]

I know it’s lead to bad memories but I think we can stop worrying about the fit and proper persons test. 
 

 

[GWN]

I’m still at 9 maybe 8.5 if we can Nick anything else this year.

[GWN]

Ive looked at the table , it’s now 3 from these bottom 4 in my opinion .

 

So we need to win this league .

 

Watford next 4..Brentford A , Burnley A, Palace H Wolves A. 4 points 

Burnley next 4…West Ham H , Watford H, Villa A, Everton H 3 points 

Norwich next 4 ..Spurs A, Man U H, Villa H , West h A  1 point 

 

 

So realistically we should be 6 adrift at best come January assuming we get nothing else this year , just my negative take on it .

 

 

Edited December 5, 2021 by GWN

[Stottie]

I stayed on six after Norwich and will stay on six now.

 

My biggest issue isn't X points off whatever fixture so far. It is whether Wilson, ASM, and Dubs stay fit. They've all had injury problems before, but are better than pretty much everyone in the bottom half. If they stay fit, we won't be relegated. Not with Eddie Howe ensuring a good level of professionalism across the club. I expect us to strengthen in January, and hope we get a backup striker and keeper as priorities. A shiny new right back isn't going to help as much as losing Wilson for the season would cost us.

 

 

 

[Superior Acuña]

4 hours ago, GWN said:

Ive looked at the table , it’s now 3 from these bottom 4 in my opinion .

 

So we need to win this league .

 

Watford next 4..Brentford A , Burnley A, Palace H Wolves A. 4 points 

Burnley next 4…West Ham H , Watford H, Villa A, Everton H 3 points 

Norwich next 4 ..Spurs A, Man U H, Villa H , West h A  1 point 

 

 

So realistically we should be 6 adrift at best come January assuming we get nothing else this year , just my negative take on it .

 

 

 

 

I think Brentford could get dragged in over time too. Their 6 point gap could easily breakdown over time if they've been found out as their recent form might suggest.

 

 

Edited December 5, 2021 by Inferior Acuña

[DebuchyAndTheBeast]

Still on a 9. I am more relaxed after the 3 points and especially the cleansheet. Our football wasn't great at times but we created enough chances to win a game and were resolute in defence.

 

We have 4 tough fixtures coming next. If we manage 4 to 6 points then I might move from a 9 to a 7.

[Decky]

Fuck if we get six points from those games I'm a 1 because even just beating two of those four would raise confidence levels massively. Four points and I'll take it to 5. 

 

4 to 6 points would be huge in the context of our season so far. 

 

 

Edited December 5, 2021 by Decky

[McCormick]

Need to win at least once every 3 games from now on. It’s not inconceivable but we’ve got no wiggle room for more fuck-ups like that Norwich game.

[McCormick]

Big ask, but going into Jan with 14 points or more and we’re absolutely fine.

[Superior Acuña]

2 hours ago, DebuchyAndTheBeast said:

Still on a 9. I am more relaxed after the 3 points and especially the cleansheet. Our football wasn't great at times but we created enough chances to win a game and were resolute in defence.

 

We have 4 tough fixtures coming next. If we manage 4 to 6 points then I might move from a 9 to a 7.

 

If we're getting 4-6 points from Leicester/Liverpool/ManCity/Manu no way are we 70% likely to go down.  With half the season to go that wouldn't suggest relegation form under our new manager at all. Not that I see that happening.

 

 

Edited December 5, 2021 by Inferior Acuña

[Geordie Ahmed]

3 hours ago, DebuchyAndTheBeast said:

Still on a 9. I am more relaxed after the 3 points and especially the cleansheet. Our football wasn't great at times but we created enough chances to win a game and were resolute in defence.

 

We have 4 tough fixtures coming next. If we manage 4 to 6 points then I might move from a 9 to a 7.

I really don't see 4-6 points

 

Think it's 2 points at best (obviously Howe won't be thinking like that and rightly so)

 

However if we get 4-6 points then staying on a 7 makes no sense