Other other games (2023/24)

[SUPERTOON]

Just now, KaKa said:

 

I'm very sceptical, but you may be right.

 

Be interesting to see where he ends up next, and how he performs.

Fwiw, I don’t think we sign him, the lad from Leipzig is much more likely imo.

[Kid Icarus]

Just to give another example of those probability tables being shite, Liverpool's chance of CL went up from 30% to 37% solely from beating that godawful Leicester side. Our 92% chance is down to 81% based on an away draw. A model with that much swing is worthless.

 

 

Edited May 15, 2023 by Kid Icarus

[Gawalls]

8 minutes ago, Pata said:

 

Eh? They had won like every third game until that point but somehow a 9 game winning streak was likely? 

We went on a 9 game unbeaten run this season after the Man City game on 4/3 and before that we’d only won 6 games out of 24 - that’s only a win every 4 games.

[TK-421]

These two scousers... every other word..."eeerm"

[TRon]

16 minutes ago, Pata said:

Liverpool winning their final 9 in a row was like 5-10% chance at best, that's never likely.

 

Yet quite a few of us said it could happen, purely because we've seen it before. They also have the power of the establishment behind them to help out when it gets a bit rocky.

[Pata]

10 minutes ago, Kid Icarus said:

Yes, for the reasons mentioned. Their easy run in, their returning players, them having done it before.

 

I can understand you arguing against it then, as you did. Not sure why you would argue against it now.

 

Something happening doesn't mean it was likely to happen. But yeah, I'm done with this conversation for now. 

[TheBrownBottle]

6 minutes ago, Kid Icarus said:

Just to give another example of those probability tables being shite, Liverpool's chance of CL went up from 30% to 37% solely from beating that godawful Leicester side. Our 92% chance is down to 81% based on an away draw. A model with that much swing is worthless.

 

 

 

Liverpool’s %s still look too low for me

[Sempiternal]

They had a cupcake run in, with players back, was always a possibility 

[Pata]

I fucking hate maths but I'm like Einstein here. I'm worrying about the UK school system.

[Kid Icarus]

1 minute ago, Pata said:

 

Something happening doesn't mean it was likely to happen. But yeah, I'm done with this conversation for now. 

To the people who thought it was going to happen it obviously was fairly likely wasn't it?  There's no universal likelihood 

[Disco]

1 minute ago, Pata said:

I fucking hate maths but I'm like Einstein here. I'm worrying about the UK school system.

[Pata]

Just now, Kid Icarus said:

To the people who thought it was going to happen it obviously was fairly likely wasn't it?  There's no universal likelihood 

 

Flat earthers are certain earth is flat.

[AyeDubbleYoo]

9 minutes ago, Kid Icarus said:

Just to give another example of those probability tables being shite, Liverpool's chance of CL went up from 30% to 37% solely from beating that godawful Leicester side. Our 92% chance is down to 81% based on an away draw. A model with that much swing is worthless.

 

 

 

Not sure if that is so crazy. The teams are really close and there are only 3 games left to produce results. 
 

All the model can ever be expected to tell you is the probability at a given point. 
 

You can have a 90% favourite in poker lose if that one card comes out of the deck. But the point is it won’t happen  9 times out of 10. 

[Kid Icarus]

1 minute ago, Pata said:

I fucking hate maths but I'm like Einstein here. I'm worrying about the UK school system.

Einstein was right though 

[duo]

I think I could take losing CL football but not to Liverpool 

[Sempiternal]

1 minute ago, Kid Icarus said:

Einstein was right though 

[Pata]

13 minutes ago, Kid Icarus said:

Just to give another example of those probability tables being shite, Liverpool's chance of CL went up from 30% to 37% solely from beating that godawful Leicester side. Our 92% chance is down to 81% based on an away draw. A model with that much swing is worthless.

 

 

 

 

Of course it swings when there are only few games left. Liverpool were about 60% favourites today, now the model can disregard those 4 times out of 10 when Liverpool dropped points.

[Pata]

1 minute ago, Sempiternal said:

 

[Sempiternal]

Pata, are you Nate Silver?

[Pata]

Just now, Sempiternal said:

Pata, are you Nate Silver?

 

I wish I was.

 

Just wondering how bookies can make billions every year yet they are fucking fools according to N-O's hivemind.

[Kid Icarus]

1 minute ago, Pata said:

 

Flat earthers are certain earth is flat.

 

You're right, thinking that the team that has

won the Champions League, the league, accumulated 90+ points 3 times, going on huge winning runs and snatched a Champions League place in exactly this way 2 years ago would do it again was the same as thinking the earth is flat.

 

You're a genius

[Sempiternal]

Just now, Pata said:

 

I wish I was.

 

Just wondering how bookies can make billions every year yet they are fucking fools according to N-O's hivemind.

 He’s out of a job isn’t he? Didn’t they get sold/taken over 

[Kid Icarus]

7 minutes ago, AyeDubbleYoo said:

Not sure if that is so crazy. The teams are really close and there are only 3 games left to produce results. 
 

All the model can ever be expected to tell you is the probability at a given point. 
 

You can have a 90% favourite in poker lose if that one card comes out of the deck. But the point is it won’t happen  9 times out of 10. 

The point is that model demonstrably doesn't apply to football

[Pata]

Just now, Sempiternal said:

 He’s out of a job isn’t he? Didn’t they get sold/taken over 

 

No idea but I believe he made some decent money in the process in any case.

[Deuce]

46 minutes ago, Geordie Ahmed said:

The problem we have is that there is no one else to play in the middle 

Newcastle will be playing foh-foh-fookin-tyoo