The Europeometer™ (2023/24)

[Mazzy]

1 hour ago, KingArthur said:

City has been mediocre without Rodri too.

 

Yes perhaps he is their guy. But that could also be down to them having their usual start of season blip before going onto a 18 game winning run.

[The College Dropout]

Progress in Europe and cups will be massive. 

[The Prophet]

11 hours ago, brummie said:

 

We are averaging over 2 points a game in the 12 months (as of last week) since Emery came. I know it's not the same exactly, but it is a good indicator.

 

Aye, I think you're in a similar position to ourselves. Great coach, good squad but could become derailed by injuries or a cup run.

 

It's not a slight against Villa, but only two teams in the last twenty years have broken the big six and finished top four. Both of our clubs are setting up nicely to do so, but it'll take a massive effort from either.

 

 

Edited October 23, 2023 by The Prophet

[brummie]

7 hours ago, Mazzy said:

 

Same can be said for us with Bruno though. Every team (aside from City) have that one player who if injured for a prolonged period would spell disaster for their season.

i think if we lost Watkins he’d move things around, specifically Diaby. Not ideal though but like you said, losing players to injury is never good. 
 

worth noting we’ve already had horrendous injury problems - Buendia did his acl four days before the season started, Mings did his on the first game, Jacob Ramsey (who is mega important to us) broke his foot in the summer, came back two weeks ago and reinjured himself in his first match, and Alex Moreno, who did brilliantly last season, has been out since May. 
 

Mings, Moreno and Ramsey is most of our left side. 
 

I think both us and you will find it tough going in terms of depth in the new year when European games start to bite. 
 

Still, nice problem to have. 

[The College Dropout]

Villa have a deep squad.

 

They've put in replacements for their long-term injuries. Although not as good, they are internationals for top European nations.

 

Even their Watkins backup looks a player.

 

It's the Cup runs that might do them. But the Conference League isn't that tough. I can see them blowing out a few teams in the first leg of KO rounds and being able to rotate.

 

I keep saying it, but not being in Europe is massive for Spurs and Chelsea.

 

 

 

[Smal]

Villa are definitely a top 5 contender but I do look at them play and wonder when everyone's going to work their ridiculously aggressive high line out. I mean we did but we are ideally suited to playing against a high line like that; especially at home. West Ham were really sloppy yesterday and should've exposed it numerous times.

[Gallowgate Toon]

Villa are a bit weird in that they've consistently outperformed their underlying stats since Emery came in, although not by massive amounts. I expected they'd drop off a tad but it's just not happened yet bar the odd run - very impressive. Tricky Thursday game for them this week but I expect they'll still get a result on Sunday.

[The College Dropout]

At home, they are immense. On the road, teams can exploit that high-line.

[Hanshithispantz]

Do Villa realistically play with a higher line than any other attacking side when trying to pin the opposition in?

 

 

[Vaj]

Seen a few comments saying that Villa will tail off and not be able to sustain their form. Sounds very much like the attitude of the 'Big Six' clubs last season when talking about us.

 

I personally wouldn't write Villa off. 

[Ginola14]

Hi new poster here.

 

Something that has been bothering me for a while is Man Utd. I've always hated them and we've never finished ahead of them in the PL. 

 

Not sure if they're just the luckiest team around or if they're actually really good and playing within themselves most of the time.

 

Last season they finished 4 points ahead of Newcastle despite a vastly inferior GD (-20)

 

This season they're only 1 point behind Newcastle, again with a vastly inferior GD after 9 games (-17) 

 

So over 47 games Man U have accumulated 90 points compared to Newcaslte's 87 points. 

 

In that time Man U have accumulated 3 more points despite scoring way less and conceding way more. 

 

New GS 92 GA 42 GD 50 PTS 87

Man GS 69 GA 56 GD 13 PTS 90

 

So for all the stick ETH gets, since his appointment he's amassed more points than Eddie Howe's Newcastle who have been mostly brilliant in that time. This despite all the dressing room and off field problems he's had to deal with (Ronaldo, Greenwood etc).  

 

And to rub it in they beat us in the cup final

 

Surely they can't sustain this by being inferior to Newcastle in almost every metric but I find it quite remarkable how they've managed to do it so far. 

 

Anyway sorry just needed to get that out of my system! 

 

 

Edited October 23, 2023 by Ginola14

[The Prophet]

11 minutes ago, Vaj said:

Seen a few comments saying that Villa will tail off and not be able to sustain their form. Sounds very much like the attitude of the 'Big Six' clubs last season when talking about us.

 

I personally wouldn't write Villa off. 

 

I don't think many are writing Villa off, if anything their threat is overstated and I rate them.

[Vaj]

2 minutes ago, Ginola14 said:

Hi new poster here.

 

Something that has been bothering me for a while is Man Utd. I've always hated them and we've never finished ahead of them in the PL. 

 

Not sure if they're just the luckiest team around or if they're actually really good and playing within themselves most of the time.

 

Last season they finished 4 points ahead of Newcastle despite a vastly inferior GD (-20)

 

This season they're only 1 point behind Newcastle, again with a vastly inferior GD after 9 games (-17) 

 

So over 47 games Man U have accumulated 90 points compared to Newcaslte's 87 points. 

 

In that time Man U have accumulated 3 more points despite scoring way less and conceding way more. 

 

New GS 92 GA 42 GD 50 PTS 87

Man GS 69 GA 56 GD 13 PTS 90

 

So for all the stick ETH gets, since his appointment he's amassed more points than Eddie Howe's Newcastle who have been mostly brilliant in that time. This despite all the dressing room and off field problems he's had to deal with (Ronaldo, Greenwood etc).  

 

And to rub it in they beat us in the cup final

 

Surely they can't sustain this by being inferior to Newcastle in almost every metric but I find it quite remarkable how they've managed to do it so far. 

 

Anyway sorry just needed to get that out of my system! 

 

 

 

I have been saying it for a while. I don't know whether it is good that they always seem to find a way of winning games or a concern for them that they never seem to be in control. As you say, it should be unsustainable but it has now been sustained for a long period of time. I don't like ETH but you have to applaud the fact that they grind out wins, but hopefully they will start drawing and losing some of these games that they keep winning soon. They have won five games this season by one goal and all of them to teams you would expect to finish in the bottom half and the majority of them without playing well.  

[alexf]

2 hours ago, brummie said:

i think if we lost Watkins he’d move things around, specifically Diaby. Not ideal though but like you said, losing players to injury is never good. 
 

worth noting we’ve already had horrendous injury problems - Buendia did his acl four days before the season started, Mings did his on the first game, Jacob Ramsey (who is mega important to us) broke his foot in the summer, came back two weeks ago and reinjured himself in his first match, and Alex Moreno, who did brilliantly last season, has been out since May. 
 

Mings, Moreno and Ramsey is most of our left side. 
 

I think both us and you will find it tough going in terms of depth in the new year when European games start to bite. 
 

Still, nice problem to have. 

 

I still think your squad depth is stronger than ours. I believe you guys had a head start on investment before us and it shows in the squad depth. 

 

However I think we are both similar in that a few key injuries or suspensions could derail our form. (Bruno, Isak/Wilson) for us and probably (Watkins, Douglas Luiz) for you. 

I think the strength of the opposition for us in the CL is going to impact us more than you in the Conference league though. You could easily play and B/C team I feel and still progress to the latter stages, whereas we are almost rotating in the Prem already to save first 11 for CL. 

[Pata]

Man United are not good. They have injuries at the back but still their biggest problem is creating chances. Hope their luck runs out at some point, it’s been long enough already.

[Skeletor]

We have the best goal difference in the league, yet we're 6th. Most goals scored too. We're in a false (low) position.

[Froggy]

27 minutes ago, Pata said:

Man United are not good. They have injuries at the back but still their biggest problem is creating chances. Hope their luck runs out at some point, it’s been long enough already.

 

There was a ton of unwarranted criticism that came our way last season. We were much better than people gave us credit for.

 

We have been dire lately though. Really worrying form. Relying on individual brilliance again against teams like Sheffield United. Yes our entire back line is out injured and then some, but the defence shouldn't even be breaking a sweat against those sort of teams. 

[Smal]

unfortunately Bruno Fernansh is a cheat code in a shit side

[Froggy]

10 minutes ago, Smal said:

unfortunately Bruno Fernansh is a cheat code in a shit side

 

People don't understand just how good he is. Beyond fucked if he was to get injured or leave. 

[Smal]

2 minutes ago, Froggy said:

 

People don't understand just how good he is. Beyond fucked if he was to get injured or leave. 

you’d be fucked if he left right now but also I don’t think he’d be anywhere near as effective in a better team that doesn’t depend almost entirely on him.

[The College Dropout]

Last season they kept the most clean sheets. They got battered a few times, which hurt the GD.

 

They don't score loads but win 1-0 2-1 enough times.

 

They've got quality in depth too.

 

Not being in the CL helped them last season.

 

They are a funny team. I think we would do great to finish up above them this season.

[timeEd32]

2 hours ago, Ginola14 said:

Hi new poster here.

 

Something that has been bothering me for a while is Man Utd. I've always hated them and we've never finished ahead of them in the PL. 

 

Not sure if they're just the luckiest team around or if they're actually really good and playing within themselves most of the time.

 

Last season they finished 4 points ahead of Newcastle despite a vastly inferior GD (-20)

 

This season they're only 1 point behind Newcastle, again with a vastly inferior GD after 9 games (-17) 

 

So over 47 games Man U have accumulated 90 points compared to Newcaslte's 87 points. 

 

In that time Man U have accumulated 3 more points despite scoring way less and conceding way more. 

 

New GS 92 GA 42 GD 50 PTS 87

Man GS 69 GA 56 GD 13 PTS 90

 

So for all the stick ETH gets, since his appointment he's amassed more points than Eddie Howe's Newcastle who have been mostly brilliant in that time. This despite all the dressing room and off field problems he's had to deal with (Ronaldo, Greenwood etc).  

 

And to rub it in they beat us in the cup final

 

Surely they can't sustain this by being inferior to Newcastle in almost every metric but I find it quite remarkable how they've managed to do it so far. 

 

Anyway sorry just needed to get that out of my system! 

 

 

 

 

In our last 40 games played we're 4 points better with a +37 GD compared to them.

 

Since the cup final they have a -1 GD and we've collected two more points even if you give them 6 points for their two games in hand.

 

This calendar year we are basically identical to each other at home: +20 GD for us and +18 for them. Away from home we are +9 and they are -10. 

 

This season they are 12th in xG, 9th in xGA, and 11th in xPTS. We are 1st, 2nd, and 2nd. 

 

I know which team I'd rather be looking at literally every metric other than points. Just a slight improvement from us in turning draws into 3 points and we're flying. Combine that with them turning some of these narrow wins into draws and it won't be close. Barring a drastic uptick in form from them I'm very confident we will be finishing above them.

[Jaqen]

4 hours ago, Hanshithispantz said:

Do Villa realistically play with a higher line than any other attacking side when trying to pin the opposition in?

 

 

 

I think the biggest difference is the way they use it to try and catch teams offside so much. Since Emery came they must be way out ahead of anyone else in terms of offsides against them. 

 

They will probably get battered a few times this season because of it but it seems to be really effective against a lot of sides. I think other than us it's only really been Liverpool who's exploited it properly this season. 

 

It's quite nice from a neutral perspective that the sides like ourselves, Villa and Brighton trying to disrupt the top 6 are all doing with with totally different styles of football. As soon as any of us lose a game though the 'found out' allegations seem to start 

 

 

[Ginola14]

41 minutes ago, timeEd32 said:

 

In our last 40 games played we're 4 points better with a +37 GD compared to them.

 

Since the cup final they have a -1 GD and we've collected two more points even if you give them 6 points for their two games in hand.

 

This calendar year we are basically identical to each other at home: +20 GD for us and +18 for them. Away from home we are +9 and they are -10. 

 

This season they are 12th in xG, 9th in xGA, and 11th in xPTS. We are 1st, 2nd, and 2nd. 

 

I know which team I'd rather be looking at literally every metric other than points. Just a slight improvement from us in turning draws into 3 points and we're flying. Combine that with them turning some of these narrow wins into draws and it won't be close. Barring a drastic uptick in form from them I'm very confident we will be finishing above them.

I really hope you're right. Would be reallly nice to win at Old Trafford next week but I expect they will be favourites at home and will scrape a win. Will be very interesting if we put out our strongest available team.

[BullyDogs]

4 hours ago, Skeletor said:

We have the best goal difference in the league, yet we're 6th. Most goals scored too. We're in a false (low) position.

 

Mainly down to the fact we put 8 past sheffield united. That inflated the GD massively just like Liverpool always had a decent GD due to the 9-0 against Bournemouth last season. To wipe that result out wed need to lose 4 games by 2 or be spanked in 2 games. On current going thats not likely to happen so i think our GD will be amongst the best all season now