The Europeometer™ (2023/24)

[Pata]

2 minutes ago, Kid Icarus said:

I'm saying it's a huge exaggeration, I'm not saying it won't happen.

 

Huge exaggeration means it's an opportunity to make money regardless of the end result.  

[timeEd32]

6 minutes ago, Kid Icarus said:

You don't just indiscriminately share probabilities out between the other teams involved though. Form and history tells you that Liverpool are the main benefactors from this week, not teams that lost.

 

Sorry, but this doesn't make any sense. If we accept that Brighton were effectively eliminated today (or their odds were greatly reduced) then it benefits all of the teams in the race. And, in fact, it benefits Newcastle and Man United more because Brighton had a higher potential points number than Liverpool did. Newcastle and Man United now need less points than they did before today to finish in the top 4.

[Kid Icarus]

2 minutes ago, Optimistic Nut said:

 

You think the odds should be lower than that given we play 2 of the worst 4 teams in the league still and that would only leave another point to require? That's also based on Liverpool winning all 3 of theirs too. I think the percentages are about right. 

Yes, because I truly believe that football results especially at this time of year and especially involving teams fighting relegation are chaos. Year after year. We know this first hand, we've often been that team pulling a result out of nowhere.

 

terminally shit Everton have just beaten excellent all season Brighton 5-1 away, yet I'm supposed to take Leeds away and Leicester at home as bankers? 

[Pata]

1 minute ago, Kid Icarus said:

yet I'm supposed to take Leeds away and Leicester at home as bankers? 

 

Yet Liverpool will easily win any game they have left? 

 

I'm honestly shocked how poor people are with probabilities, KI is a smart guy too.

[Optimistic Nut]

1 minute ago, Kid Icarus said:

Yes, because I truly believe that football results especially at this time of year and especially involving teams fighting relegation are chaos. Year after year. We know this first hand, we've often been that team pulling a result out of nowhere.

 

terminally shit Everton have just beaten excellent all season Brighton 5-1 away, yet I'm supposed to take Leeds away and Leicester at home as bankers? 

 

I've just went through the results of top 6 v bottom 6 from the last 2 seasons and that's a myth man.

 

P33 W3 D4 L26 F21 A86

 

That's the bottom 6 record over top 6 teams in the European/relegation run-ins in 20/21 and 21/22.

 

 

[Kid Icarus]

1 minute ago, timeEd32 said:

 

Sorry, but this doesn't make any sense. If we accept that Brighton were effectively eliminated today (or their odds were greatly reduced) then it benefits all of the teams in the race. And, in fact, it benefits Newcastle and Man United more because Brighton had a higher potential points number than Liverpool did. Newcastle and Man United now need less points than they did before today to finish in the top 4.

You don't needs odds to tell you that Brighton being a threat was extremely unlikely. No one has been using 73 as the target because it was clear they wouldn't win every single match that includes us, Man City and Arsenal.

[Pata]

Just now, Kid Icarus said:

You don't needs odds to tell you that Brighton being a threat was extremely unlikely. No one has been using 73 as the target because it was clear they wouldn't win every single match that includes us, Man City and Arsenal.

 

That's why fivethirtyeight or anybody else only gave them extremely unlikely chance of 4-6% or whatever it was. After they fucked up those few percents move to us, Man Utd and Liverpool. 

[Ronaldo]

Leeds and Leicester are a mess. Frankly I don’t think most of the Leicester players really give a fuck.

 

 

Edited May 8, 2023 by Ronaldo

[Kid Icarus]

2 minutes ago, Pata said:

 

Yet Liverpool will easily win any game they have left? 

 

I'm honestly shocked how poor people are with probabilities, KI is a smart guy too.

Do you even appreciate that there are factors that slip between the cracks and aren't quantified by pure probability? That there's a difference between pure maths and applied maths? That millions are spent to try an improve algorithms and include these unquantifiable factors in because they aren't infallible? Or do you just think it's all a basic lack of understanding?

 

Even concentrating solely on Liverpool, they have the form, the quality, the home fixtures, the experience of this situation/other high pressure situations, and the points gap that makes a 92% probability for us, 80% probability for Man United, and only a 27% chance for Liverpool look like an exaggerated difference with those factors and more in mind.

[Alberto2005]

If we beat Leeds surely we will do it, Leicester aren't going to get anything at our place.

[timeEd32]

If you take a mix of 538 and the betting sites the consensus is we're roughly 90% likely to finish in the top 4. Those that think 90% is too high seem far too focused on Liverpool. Their results only matter if we can't win two of our remaining games. If we played these fixtures 100 times how many times do you think we'd fail to earn 6 or 7 points? And then in those times we do fail to do it we have the safety net or Liverpool dropping points and/or Man United dropping points. Honestly, it seems about right and that's why you can make a decent amount of money if you bet against us right now.

 

It doesn't mean it can't happen. Even at these odds there are 10 out of 100 scenarios where we fail to do it. This seems apt right now:

 

The odds seem more ridiculous when you tell stories of the mighty Liverpool, a Newcastle United who always fail to get it done, and Manchester United being a foregone conclusion because of who they are. And Brighton losing shouldn't change anything because little Brighton was never going to get it done anyway.

 

 

[Pata]

6 minutes ago, Kid Icarus said:

Even concentrating solely on Liverpool, they have the form, the quality, the home fixtures, the experience of this situation/other high pressure situations, and the points gap that makes a 92% probability for us, 80% probability for Man United, and only a 27% chance for Liverpool look like an exaggerated difference with those factors and more in mind.

 

You honestly think bookies or professional bettors don't factor all that to their calculations?

[Wullie]

The thing these daft algorithms don't and can't take into account is, for want of a better word, bottle. A club like us going for this is completely different to what it would be if all the numbers were exactly the same but it was Liverpool in pole position and us doing the chasing. The algorithm would say the same but it's just not, and you can't quantify what the particular badge on the shirt does mentally.

 

Leicester found it out two years running. They looked absolute certainties both seasons and then suddenly the pressure just got to them when it mattered most.

 

We've not shown any signs at all of bottling it yet but I don't think Liverpool will drop another point now, these sides are relentless in these end of season scenarios. Any slip up against Leeds and I think we've had it.

[TheHoob]

As infuriating as these discussions are sometimes this kind of stuff is exactly why football is the best sport in the world 

 

[Optimistic Nut]

7 minutes ago, Kid Icarus said:

Do you even appreciate that there are factors that slip between the cracks and aren't quantified by pure probability? That there's a difference between pure maths and applied maths? That millions are spent to try an improve algorithms and include these unquantifiable factors in because they aren't infallible? Or do you just think it's all a basic lack of understanding?

 

Even concentrating solely on Liverpool, they have the form, the quality, the home fixtures, the experience of this situation/other high pressure situations, and the points gap that makes a 92% probability for us, 80% probability for Man United, and only a 27% chance for Liverpool look like an exaggerated difference with those factors and more in mind.

 

Who do you think will win these two games.

 

Leeds v Newcastle

Newcastle v Leicester

 

Which team has the best form? The better players? The better chance of winning?

 

Our record against the current bottom 6 is P10, W8, D2, L0.

 

Also have to factor in Liverpool having to win all 3 of their games.

 

There's the reason it's a 92% probability. 

 

[Kid Icarus]

17 minutes ago, Optimistic Nut said:

 

I've just went through the results of top 6 v bottom 6 from the last 2 seasons and that's a myth man.

 

P33 W3 D4 L26 F21 A86

 

That's the bottom 6 record over top 6 teams in the European/relegation run-ins in 20/21 and 21/22.

 

 

It doesn't need to just be bottom 6 and you need the context of who the teams are/a larger data set to draw any conclusion. Even then, that's 20% of the matches with points dropped.

 

Arsenal alone lost 3 of the types matches I'm on about in their run in last season.

[Pata]

Yet Liverpool have those remaining 9 points in the bag already.

[cubaricho]

27 minutes ago, Ronaldo said:

Leeds and Leicester are a mess. Frankly I don’t think most of the Leicester players really give a fuck.

 

 

 

Totally agree about Leicester. 
 

And the Leeds players will feel like they’re in a weird time machine experiment. 
 

Those two are six of our seven needed points 100%. 

[Kid Icarus]

11 minutes ago, timeEd32 said:

If you take a mix of 538 and the betting sites the consensus is we're roughly 90% likely to finish in the top 4. Those that think 90% is too high seem far too focused on Liverpool. Their results only matter if we can't win two of our remaining games. If we played these fixtures 100 times how many times do you think we'd fail to earn 6 or 7 points? And then in those times we do fail to do it we have the safety net or Liverpool dropping points and/or Man United dropping points. Honestly, it seems about right and that's why you can make a decent amount of money if you bet against us right now.

 

It doesn't mean it can't happen. Even at these odds there are 10 out of 100 scenarios where we fail to do it. This seems apt right now:

 

The odds seem more ridiculous when you tell stories of the mighty Liverpool, a Newcastle United who always fail to get it done, and Manchester United being a foregone conclusion because of who they are. And Brighton losing shouldn't change anything because little Brighton was never going to get it done anyway.

 

 

That reads like those stories are somehow fairytales. That the emotional or intellectual itch is somehow irrational and not based on pretty solid reasoning. 

[Kid Icarus]

2 minutes ago, Pata said:

Yet Liverpool have those remaining 9 points in the bag already.

You must have missed the reasoning behind why Liverpool in their situation and us in ours or Arsenal in theirs last season aren't remotely like for like. If we'd done this before or had experience of getting results in high pressure, top of the table scenarios like Liverpool have, treating this as an all-things-being-equal would make more sense.

[Optimistic Nut]

5 minutes ago, Kid Icarus said:

It doesn't need to just be bottom 6 and you need the context of who the teams are/a larger data set to draw any conclusion. Even then, that's 20% of the matches with points dropped.

 

Arsenal alone lost 3 of the types matches I'm on about in their run in last season.

 

They lost 3 of the last 8 games (Southampton was one of those 3 wins in 33 for the bottom 6). Newcastle and Spurs were the other 2 losses.

 

 

[Stifler]

Is my maths correct here?

 

If we beat Leeds on Saturday, and somehow Leicester beat Liverpool on Monday, would we then only need a draw against Brighton on the Thursday?

[Pata]

4 minutes ago, Kid Icarus said:

You must have missed the reasoning behind why Liverpool in their situation and us in ours or Arsenal in theirs last season aren't remotely like for like. If we'd done this before or had experience of getting results in high pressure, top of the table scenarios like Liverpool have, treating this as an all-things-being-equal would make more sense.

 

We just handled the (higher) pressure of a relegation fight brilliantly a year ago under Howe and I haven't seen any signs pointing towards bottling this one either.

[LiquidAK]

4 minutes ago, Stifler said:

Is my maths correct here?

 

If we beat Leeds on Saturday, and somehow Leicester beat Liverpool on Monday, would we then only need a draw against Brighton on the Thursday?

That should be right, we need to gain 7 points, or them drop 7, so 6 point swing plus the point on Thursday would do it.

 

Howay Leicester

[lovejoy]

5 minutes ago, Stifler said:

Is my maths correct here?

 

If we beat Leeds on Saturday, and somehow Leicester beat Liverpool on Monday, would we then only need a draw against Brighton on the Thursday?

Yeah, we’d need one more point.

 

if Liverpool lose to Leicester their max points total is 68. 
 

if we beat Leeds we’ll be on 68.