The Europeometer™ (2024/25) - NUFC Qualify for Champions League

[Stottie]

On 28/04/2025 at 05:18, JigsawGoesToPieces said:

Dale Johnson updated Europe pemultations.

 

If Palace win the FA Cup

 

Champions League: 1-5
Europa League: 6, Crystal Palace as FA Cup winners
Conference League: Newcastle United

 

if Man City win the FA Cup

 

Champions League: 1-5
Europa League: 6, 7
Conference League: Newcastle United

 

If Newcastle finish top 7

 

Champions League: 1-5
Europa League: 6, 7
Conference League: 8

 

Two things here. First is if Man City win the Cup, they are favourites, seventh gets Europa League. This means there's very little chance, my guess would be less than one in one hundred, we don't get at least Europa League. Which as Man U and Spurs are suggesting, is probably easier than to progress in than used to be and offers a way into the CL for the winner. Note that I want and expect CL, us collapsing under Eddie Howe would be very uncharacteristic. I am only bringing this up to soothe any last minute nerves from the players and fanbase. We won't be in the Conference League next season. We'll be in one of the two better competitions. 

 

Secondly, us being basically nailed on for top 7 means eighth will get Europe. Man City and Villa both have to play both Bournemouth and Fulham who are in contention for eighth. We have to play Brighton, who are the same. Anyone saying VIlla have easy fixtures is saying teams in genuine European contention are easy opposition.

 

[Optimistic Nut]

1 hour ago, NobbySolano said:

i must be the only one that hates this "draw and win one" stick from everyone.

 

I am trying to do the math to finish 2nd. Win out and 2nd is ours, and I see no reason to think its not possible.

 

Likely might be too far, but win at the Amex this weekend and I think Howe and the lads will believe it themselves

 

Win the last 4 and I think we finish 2nd.

 

Would take some effort but what a statement it'd be for next season in terms of enticing players, and showing Isak, Tonali, etc that we can give them the accolades they chase. Would likely be relying on Arsenal getting to the CL Final to take their eyes off the league though.

 

 

Edited May 2 by Optimistic Nut

[PauloGeordio]

2 minutes ago, Optimistic Nut said:

 

Win the last 4 and I think we finish 2nd.

 

Would take some effort but what a statement it'd be for next season in terms of enticing players, and showing Isak, Tonali, etc that we can give them the accolades they chase. Would likely be relying on Arsenal getting to the CL Final to take their eyes off the league though.

 

 

 

No doubt Eddie and the boys will be focused and trying to achieve maximum points 

[Geogaddi]

37 minutes ago, Paullow said:

Usually in a two option outcome, in this case yes or no, if something was 1/8 (odds on) the other option would be around 5/1 (odds against). Mind, not many traditional bookies, bar Paddy Power, seem to offer top 5 odds, most seem to still just be doing top 4 odds, so it will be very tough outside of betting exchanges, to be able to get direct odds for Newcastle 'not to finish in the top 5'. In terms of traditional bookies, as others point out, you can't really hedge bets, because you could put £100 on Forest to make the top 5 at 4/5 and it could still be Newcastle and Forest finishing 6th and 7th, and you've wasted £100 and haven't even got the 'emotional' outcome in place of Newcastle securing their place.

 

If someone was offering 9/2 or 5/1 for Newcastle to finish outside the top 5, which seems to be what they would be if someone was offering, then I'd definitely be putting money on because it feels really close, and Sunday is a huge match.

Yeah best thing to do if you are that way inclined is lay us on Betfair in the top 5 market.

[timeEd32]

If City beat Villa we could be five clear 

 

[City wins]

 

I'm still worried Villa will win the rest and can't see Forest losing, but if we just take care of what we need to do we'll be fine.

 

[Beat Ipswich 3-0]

 

Now that Villa and Forest are out of the cup they have no distractions and Liverpool winning the title means they are now terrible

 

[Forest lose to Brentford]

 

Man United and Spurs and Palace and the Amex and everything is bad 

-----------------

 

You all are going to drive yourselves mad. The most relevant fact is since mid-December (i.e. The Rise of Tonali), which is the equivalent of half a season as of now, we are the second best team in the country and we beat the only one better in a cup final. 

[Dr.Spaceman]

Aye but we lost at home to West Ham

[PauloGeordio]

10 minutes ago, timeEd32 said:

If City beat Villa we could be five clear 

 

[City wins]

 

I'm still worried Villa will win the rest and can't see Forest losing, but if we just take care of what we need to do we'll be fine.

 

[Beat Ipswich 3-0]

 

Now that Villa and Forest are out of the cup they have no distractions and Liverpool winning the title means they are now terrible

 

[Forest lose to Brentford]

 

Man United and Spurs and Palace and the Amex and everything is bad 

-----------------

 

You all are going to drive yourselves mad. The most relevant fact is since mid-December (i.e. The Rise of Tonali), which is the equivalent of half a season as of now, we are the second best team in the country and we beat the only one better in a cup final. 

This! 

 

[MagPar]

If arsenal win the cl does that mean that 6th place gets cl football? 

[ramirez]

3 minutes ago, MagPar said:

If arsenal win the cl does that mean that 6th place gets cl football? 

only if they were the team to finish 6th, not sure if that can happen.

[ramirez]

football ranking projecting man u in pot 1 for cl, as we couldn't play any of the other english pot 1 sides (liverpool, arsenal and city) we would then play 2 of 5 from PSG, BAyern, Inter, Real or Barca.  Leverkusen would fill in for Man United although not sure what Spurs or possibly Chelseas coefficient is.  

 

Obviously a long way to go but Real Madrid (A) and Bayern (H) would be my ideal picks for new opponents.

 

 

Edited May 2 by ramirez

[SteV]

6 minutes ago, ramirez said:

football ranking projecting man u in pot 1 for cl, as we couldn't play any of the other english pot 1 sides (liverpool, arsenal and city) we would then play 2 of 5 from PSG, BAyern, Inter, Real or Barca.  Leverkusen would fill in for Man United although not sure what Spurs or possibly Chelseas coefficient is.  

 

Obviously a long way to go but Real Madrid (A) and Bayern (H) would be my ideal picks for new opponents.

 

 

 

Other way round for me. Tremendous bantz if Mbappe were to get turned over at SJP again.

[ramirez]

Just now, SteV said:

Other way round for me. Tremendous bantz if Mbappe were to get turned over at SJP again.

yeah less chance of getting battered of the police in Germany too.  

[Displayname]

3 hours ago, The College Dropout said:

You’re projecting Arsenal lose 2 games out of their last 4. They’ve lost 3 in 34.  

They also won 3 in their last 9 in PL. 

If we win our last 4 we got a very decent chance of getting 2nd.

[alexf]

We did lose Joelinton. That no doubt plays on people's minds and adds into the calculation of how likely we are to win certain games etc. 

 

Also each game playing the same players adds to the chance of further injuries or suspension. So each round creates a new variable which makes the whole thing far from simple. 

 

A little while ago I was pretty confident we would smash Chelsea at home. But missing Big Joe, Isak looking slightly off it recently, Chelsea picking up a little bit of form, albeit against poorish sides, is starting to creep in a small bit of doubt. 

 

But hopefully the lads have one last final push in them and smash these last few games. 

[Geordie Ahmed]

31 minutes ago, ramirez said:

only if they were the team to finish 6th, not sure if that can happen.

 

It's still mathematically possibly but very, very unlikely to happen 

[AngelofTheFourth]

1 hour ago, Crimson Cardigan said:

It could play out differently though.

 

Palace will want to continue their momentum (the cup final is a way off yet). You don’t want to be going into a final off the back of bad results. We beat West Ham going into the Carabao cup and I think that was huge compared to our poor form going into the Man U final.

 

Disagree Palace were on a 4 match winless run before they slapped up Villa in the Prem. They don't care about the league anymore. They could easily beat this forest side if they cared but they most likely won't.

 

1 hour ago, Crimson Cardigan said:

Also, at least with Man U, Amorim can’t just keep losing games indefinitely. They also have the benefit of having an opposition player sent off against them every week and Villa never, ever, ever win at Old Trafford regardless of the circumstances.

 

They're record at Old Trafford is better than ours is at the Amex.

 

I dont trust any team that doesn't have a sniff of european football to try and win their games against the 5 UCL competitors. Its the Bournemouth and Fulham game I'm relying on

[AyeDubbleYoo]

Opta has us at 84% likely to get CL, FWIW. Finishing 4th just behind Man City. Chelsea miss out in 6th. 

 

We only need to prevent Chelsea and Forest from both catching us. It doesn't really matter if Man City win all their games. 

 

I think even if we only collect 5 or 6 more points we'll do it, but expect us to get 7+.

 

 

Edited May 2 by AyeDubbleYoo

[Mazzy]

3 minutes ago, AyeDubbleYoo said:

Opta has us at 84% likely to get CL, FWIW. Finishing 4th just behind Man City. Chelsea miss out in 6th. 

 

 

 

 

Considering our fixtures, 84% is a lot.  I think the way our fixtures are laid out makes me more nervous.

 

Our "easiest" game left being the last game of the season isn't helpful. I don't like the idea of going into the last day NEEDING to get anything, even if it's only a point. I'd much rather have the Everton home game this weekend or next and just get 5th or higher guaranteed.

[AyeDubbleYoo]

2 minutes ago, Mazzy said:

 

Considering our fixtures, 84% is a lot.  I think the way our fixtures are laid out makes me more nervous.

 

Our "easiest" game left being the last game of the season isn't helpful. I don't like the idea of going into the last day NEEDING to get anything, even if it's only a point. I'd much rather have the Everton home game this weekend or next and just get 5th or higher guaranteed.

 

Yeah, I don't think the chances necessarily reflect how nervous we will be, that depends when we pick up the points.

 

Like I said, we only need to stop Forest AND Chelsea catching us. If both of them collect 3 more points than us then we'll have done quite poorly. 

[SteV]

4 minutes ago, Mazzy said:

 

Considering our fixtures, 84% is a lot.  I think the way our fixtures are laid out makes me more nervous.

 

Our "easiest" game left being the last game of the season isn't helpful. I don't like the idea of going into the last day NEEDING to get anything, even if it's only a point. I'd much rather have the Everton home game this weekend or next and just get 5th or higher guaranteed.

Can frame it however you want. Your scenario is perfectly reasonable, but I’m happy to take Everton on the last day given their Goodison ‘farewell’ the week before.

[The College Dropout]

1 minute ago, AyeDubbleYoo said:

 

Yeah, I don't think the chances necessarily reflect how nervous we will be, that depends when we pick up the points.

 

Like I said, we only need to stop Forest AND Chelsea catching us. If both of them collect 3 more points than us then we'll have done quite poorly. 

You writing Villa off?

 

If they drop points this weekend they’ll give up.  But I expect them to get 67 points. 

[AyeDubbleYoo]

I still feel like we'll beat Brighton and cruise home in the end. 

[AyeDubbleYoo]

1 minute ago, The College Dropout said:

You writing Villa off?

 

If they drop points this weekend they’ll give up.  But I expect them to get 67 points. 

 

They can qualify but not by finishing above us. They're basically 6 points behind with GD.

 

They'd need to pip someone else. 

 

I think these kinds of things are why our chances are much better than we want to think. 

 

 

Edited May 2 by AyeDubbleYoo

[The College Dropout]

I think we get 69 points and qualify with a bit to spare. I've long thought 68 would seal it too. 67 and it might go to GD. Good chance 6th/7th get 65-67 points imo.

[Superior Acuña]

I remember in 02/03 thinking it was going to go to the last day away at West Brom to get top 4. Then in the penultimate game Liverpool lost at home to Man City (Anelka) and Chelsea lost another game we expected them to win and we already had 3rd wrapped up (Viana v Birmingham home).

 

Would be nice again.