LFEE Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 Am I right in thinking win our 3 home games and 1 draw out of two away games is required if everyone else max’s out where possible? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rich Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 1 minute ago, LFEE said: Am I right in thinking win our 3 home games and 1 draw out of two away games is required if everyone else max’s out where possible? Aye, unless Villa dish out some absolute whallopings to overturn our goal difference advantage. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
LFEE Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 7 minutes ago, Rich said: Aye, unless Villa dish out some absolute whallopings to overturn our goal difference advantage. Going to be a thrilling last 5 games 😆🤞🏻 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cookie1892 Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 Beating Chelsea at home is an absolute must, we have to take points away from teams around us Forest and Chelsea playing each other as well is a good thing Having a clear winner last night in the city v villa game was a decent result tbh Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superior Acuña Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 Head to Head could end up deciding us v Chelsea's positions. 👀 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteV Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 (edited) So we beat Ipswich and Palace lose to Villa in the cup and we’d be one point from guaranteed Europa (at least)? edit - although I suppose not quite as Villa could still collapse in the league and win the cup to get the Europa place that way. Edited April 23 by SteV Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tisd09 Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 If we beat Ipswich which of course we should then I wouldn't mind going full dark arts v Brighton and make sure we don't lose there, I'd snap your hands off for 4 points going into the Chelsea game. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elma Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 Taking the optimistic approach, but we could be sure with two games to go. If we beat Ipswich and Brighton while Chelsea lose to Liverpool, then Villa not winning at Bournemouth in the late game on Saturday 10 May would mean a victory over Chelsea on the Sunday lunchtime would seal it. Anyway, one game at a time. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Erikse Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 (edited) 17 minutes ago, SteV said: So we beat Ipswich and Palace lose to Villa in the cup and we’d be one point from guaranteed Europa (at least)? edit - although I suppose not quite as Villa could still collapse in the league and win the cup to get the Europa place that way. In that case we are guaranteed top 6, so your first question is correct. Edit: Actually it's 3 points from guaranteed if Bournemouth wins. They would be 10 points behind us. Edited April 23 by Erikse Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteV Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 3 minutes ago, Erikse said: In that case we are getting top 6 anyways, so your first question is correct. Actually it's 3 points from guaranteed of Bournemouth wins. They would be 10 points behind us. We’d have 62, so theoretically Fulham, Bournemouth or Brighton could surpass us (and Villa) by winning all their games. Which then means us finishing 7th and Villa 8th, but they’d get the Europa place from winning the cup. But probably that unlikely it’s not worth considering really. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Erikse Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 (edited) 3 minutes ago, SteV said: We’d have 62, so theoretically Fulham, Bournemouth or Brighton could surpass us (and Villa) by winning all their games. Which then means us finishing 7th and Villa 8th, but they’d get the Europa place from winning the cup. But probably that unlikely it’s not worth considering really. Hence why 3 more points (if we beat Ipswich) would guarantee it. Not sure what you meant by "1 point from". If you meant to guarantee finishing above those 3 teams, then yes, but that would require 3 points (not 1) after Ipswich if they somehow keep winning. Edited April 23 by Erikse Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteV Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 1 minute ago, Erikse said: Hence why 3 points would guarantee it. Not sure what you meant by "1 point from". If you meant to stay ahead of those 3 teams, then yes, but that would require 3 points if Bou wins the next 2. Yes, three rather than one if Bournemouth were to beat Man Utd. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
STM Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 I think Villa are very good but I just dont see them bouncing through their last 4 games without dropping points. Fulham H Win Bournemouth A Draw Spurs H Win Man U A Draw Something like that. The only guarantee is that they will stuff Spurs. Man U on the last day will be surprisingly tough IMO, especially if they are needing others to drop points. Their nerves will be jangling. I see Chelsea losing at least two before the season is out. Forest away is a nightmare fixture since Forest will likely need something too. I think 2 wins for us makes it very tough for the others and 3 makes it well... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Erikse Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 1 minute ago, SteV said: Yes, three rather than one if Bournemouth were to beat Man Utd. Yep. That's what I mean, Villa dropping below 7th doesn't matter if we are guaranteed to be above those 3 teams, so it's not a factor in that regard. I guess you figured it out by now though. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnufc22 Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 I simply cannot see Villa not winning their remaining games, bar Bournemouth away, which isn’t exactly a guaranteed loss either. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
t00nt00n313 Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 3 minutes ago, timnufc22 said: I simply cannot see Villa not winning their remaining games, bar Bournemouth away, which isn’t exactly a guaranteed loss either. Whilst I agree that villa are on form and definitely could win all their games, all it takes is one bad day at the office or a slip up for a draw. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRC Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 I've done a tonne of predictors with different results. My conclusion is that the Chelsea game is massive, and if we win we are in. Draw and its 50-50, lose and we are out (unless we beat Arsenal) Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hanshithispantz Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 Aye beat Chelsea at home and it's nailed on like. Thankfully it's a game we'll be 100% up for and will try to blow them way. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keegans Export Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 1 hour ago, timnufc22 said: I simply cannot see Villa not winning their remaining games, bar Bournemouth away, which isn’t exactly a guaranteed loss either. 1 hour ago, t00nt00n313 said: Whilst I agree that villa are on form and definitely could win all their games, all it takes is one bad day at the office or a slip up for a draw. Winning four on the bounce isn't easy. It doesn't really happen much at all - Villa have managed 5x but their next best run was 3x in August/September. Chelsea won 5x in Nov/Dec and their next best is also 3x in September. Villa have already drawn with Bournemouth, lost to Spurs and drawn with Man Utd this season - every chance they drop points. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Prophet Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 No doubt Villa's focus will switch to the FA Cup final if they win on Saturday too. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginola14 Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 I think with Howe preparing the team in the week ahead for Chelsea and in the dugout then I'd be confident of beating them quite comfortably without Howe I'm really not so sure, also Chelsea have so much individual quality they can be unpredictable, likr if Neto and Palmer are up for it they can really trouble us also Liverpool be hungover from winning the league and absolutely nothing to play for, am certain Chelsea will beat them they're also the jammiest club ever so I expect them to somehow get in the CL despite being shite for most of the season Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
MagPar Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 It's so hard to predict who will end up in the CL places. No game is a guaranteed win for any team, even a terrible Southampton team could pull out a wonder win out of nowhere, that's the beauty of football. I've studied all the teams involved and there is room for all teams to trip up. With no European football we really should have cemented our place by now,but that's not the Newcastle way. It'll probably go down to the last day of the season with 3/4 teams chasing 2/3 places. Stressful. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The College Dropout Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 6 hours ago, r0cafella said: Shamelessly stolen from Reddit. That estimate for 5th is creeping up. It was 66/67 points a couple weeks ago. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Optimistic Nut Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 4 hours ago, ponsaelius said: That's not a exactly right though, because 4/5 could have finished on lower totals and still got 5th. 60, 66, 59, 63, 64 was the actual required totals. That puts the median required total a bit lower. However I'd say you are probably correct - I think the numbers of teams involved will push it to a higher overall total than usually expected. As is the fact that 5th is a CL place - this hasn't been the case previously. Aye, if you think 26-27 points would probably keep 17th safe this season, it's natural the rest of the league's average points tally will be higher per position. Every other team is tracking for over a point per game at least when normally 35-36 points might be enough. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUICE690 Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 'One saving grace this season comes in the guise of FIFA’s Club World Cup. Chelsea are expected to bank around £23m just for showing up in the US this June, and could earn about £90m if they win the tournament'. This is fair. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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