The Europeometer™ (2024/25) - NUFC Qualify for Conference League (at least)

[The College Dropout]

1 hour ago, andyc35i said:

Yeah I think just stopping Chelsea and Villa from winning when they play us should be enough. Although I’d be disappointed if we can’t beat Chelsea at home 

More confident of beating Chelsea than Palace.  Chelsea have been in bad form for the last 18 matches pretty much. 

 

We are second in that time. Palace are 6th. Chelsea are 10th. 
 

https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/premier-league/formtabelle/wettbewerb/GB1?saison_id=2024&min=15&max=32

 

Palace style wise are tougher for us.  Chelsea will play out from

the back, try to dominate possession - we can get on top of them and kill them

on transitions, turnovers, counter attacks etc. Chelsea game could be an eliminator for them, crowd and players will be up for it.  It has 6-2 Spurs potential almost. Or 3-0 Brighton. 

 

palace will give us the ball and look to do that to us which we can sometimes struggle with. 
 

 

 

Edited 21 hours ago by The College Dropout

[NSG]

Think I’m right in saying that Chelsea will likely be playing away the Thursday before our game, most likely in Vienna.

 

Not a massive amount of travelling, but not getting back until the early hours of Friday morning then having to travel up here on the Saturday for a Sunday lunchtime game will hopefully favour us.

[Optimistic Nut]

1 hour ago, The College Dropout said:

They’ll probably need a minimum of 4 points against us and City to do it. Or 3 points then win the rest of their games. 
 

So fair fucks if they can do it. They will have to be excellent. Their GD is likely to be the worst of the group too.  
 

We just have to be good-ish. 

 

Think that's where I am. If we get 67/68 points and 5 teams finish higher than us, hats off to them.

[Decky]

2 hours ago, Dr.Spaceman said:

 

I like the look of this.

 

 

 

 

Hopefully this goes over 90 if we win tomorrow. Actually getting nervous as fuck for tomorrow now.

[Elma]

9 minutes ago, Optimistic Nut said:

 

Think that's where I am. If we get 67/68 points and 5 teams finish higher than us, hats off to them.

 

If we win our four home games and avoid defeat to Villa, that's 69. Villa would need to win all of their remaining games, including at Man City, to get to 70. Chelsea aren't getting to 70. They'd need to win their other five games (excluding the game against us) to reach 70, and they've got Liverpool at home yet and Forest away last day. I suspect they may even drop points this weekend at Fulham who will respond to last night.

 

Big ask, but a win tomorrow and a draw on Saturday (or the other way round) and the odds are hugely stacked in our favour.

[The College Dropout]

1 minute ago, Elma said:

 

If we win our four home games and avoid defeat to Villa, that's 69. Villa would need to win all of their remaining games, including at Man City, to get to 70. Chelsea aren't getting to 70. They'd need to win their other five games (excluding the game against us) to reach 70, and they've got Liverpool at home yet and Forest away last day. I suspect they may even drop points this weekend at Fulham who will respond to last night.

 

Big ask, but a win tomorrow and a draw on Saturday (or the other way round) and the odds are hugely stacked in our favour.

68 points will be enough - even if we lose to Villa (and don’t get slaughtered). 
 

Villa will have to beat us then win 5 out of 6.   That would be something like 10 wins from 11 in total.  Any less and we’ll probably be ahead on GD. 

 

They’ve got something like 5 games in 17 days too. 

[Elma]

3 minutes ago, The College Dropout said:

68 points will be enough - even if we lose to Villa (and don’t get slaughtered). 
 

Villa will have to beat us then win 5 out of 6.   That would be something like 10 wins from 11 in total.  Any less and we’ll probably be ahead on GD. 

 

They’ve got something like 5 games in 17 days too. 

 

If Villa beat us they'll be on 57 with five games left, so it would be four wins out of five (i.e. losing to Man City but beating Fulham, Bournemouth, Spurs and Man U would take them to 69).

[alexf]

Home games feel key and then try and play with freedom and less pressure for those away games. Don't really want to be going into that Everton game needing to win on the final day. That being said this is a different Newcastle these days and I'd back them to get the results they needed. 

 

Obviously tomorrow is massive but if we somehow got the win away to Villa again aswell that would be chef's kiss and we'd be almost there. 

 

Chelsea game could be big aswell but again I back us at home against them.

[The College Dropout]

2 hours ago, Elma said:

 

If Villa beat us they'll be on 57 with five games left, so it would be four wins out of five (i.e. losing to Man City but beating Fulham, Bournemouth, Spurs and Man U would take them to 69).

So yeh they’ll need to have won 9 out of 10. So fair fucks to them. 
 

I think they drop points to at least 2 of us, City, Fulham and Bournemouth. 

[Displayname]

Im down for another Gambler's fallacy discussion.

[Ketsbaia]

A win versus Palace would be great but it's vital that we get a point at Villa Park.

 

I think it's between us and them for one spot  - a draw means they'd need 10 points from the final 5 matches to reach 65.

[Displayname]

7 minutes ago, Ketsbaia said:

A win versus Palace would be great but it's vital that we get a point at Villa Park.

 

I think it's between us and them for one spot  - a draw means they'd need 10 points from the final 5 matches to reach 65.

Is it Forest or Chelsea you are so sure will get a CL place? Win against Palace and i count us as favorites vs them for a CL place regardless of if we lose against Villa.

 

 

Edited 12 hours ago by Displayname

[Andy]

5 minutes ago, Ketsbaia said:

A win versus Palace would be great but it's vital that we get a point at Villa Park.

 

I think it's between us and them for one spot  - a draw means they'd need 10 points from the final 5 matches to reach 65.

 

Villa will drop points in the run in. The Palace game is far more important IMO, we need to win our home games. Pushing ourselves above Forest tomorrow would shift the pressure on to them massively. 

[Ketsbaia]

3 minutes ago, Displayname said:

Is it Forest or Chelsea you are so sure will get a CL place? Win against Palace and i count us as favorites vs them for a CL place regardless of if we lose against Villa.

 

 

 

 

I personally still think Forest will squeeze it, with such nice fixtures.

 

Of course, there's an argument that they prefer the tough ones....

[Displayname]

7 minutes ago, Ketsbaia said:

 

I personally still think Forest will squeeze it, with such nice fixtures.

 

Of course, there's an argument that they prefer the tough ones....

If Spurs drop out of Europa and gets a new manager bounce they only have 1 easy game tbh.

[Superior Acuña]

23 minutes ago, Ketsbaia said:

A win versus Palace would be great but it's vital that we get a point at Villa Park.

 

I think it's between us and them for one spot  - a draw means they'd need 10 points from the final 5 matches to reach 65.

It would be good but it’s not a vital at all.

 

Even if we lost to *both* Palace and Villa that’d leave us only 1 point behind them with a much better GD, and them with Man City up next. Never mind if we’d beaten Palace. They’re in a substantially worse position than that right now (2 points behind, one more played, much worse GD) and you’d never write them off. 

[The Prophet]

It goes without saying Edward's health comes first and foremost, but I do hope that his absence doesn't have too much of an impact.

[alexf]

Yeah shame he won't be able to match up tactically against Emery again in a big game, as he's had his number for the last 3 games. 

[gazza ladra]

53 minutes ago, Displayname said:

If Spurs drop out of Europa and gets a new manager bounce they only have 1 easy game tbh.

 I'd think the odds are pretty good that Spurs lose Thursday and Ange is cleaning out his desk Friday morning.

[The College Dropout]

Beating Palace is more important than getting a draw at Villa.   
 

Even if Villa beat us.  We should beat Ipswich. Atleast one of Villa or City will drop points that week.  
 

I fancied City to drop points against palace or Everton.  I think they draw Everton. 

[alexf]

Yeah I know we have beaten them away last year but realistically this is an unlikely result if we're honest, they have only lost once this season at home, just beaten a strong psg team in previous game so more likely to be on a high than crushed and disappointed, plus we will be missing our manager in the build up and in-game and have a day less to rest.

 

The palace match is the one to go all in on. 

[SteV]

5 hours ago, alexf said:

Yeah I know we have beaten them away last year but realistically this is an unlikely result if we're honest, they have only lost once this season at home, just beaten a strong psg team in previous game so more likely to be on a high than crushed and disappointed, plus we will be missing our manager in the build up and in-game and have a day less to rest.

 

The palace match is the one to go all in on. 

Not sure they’ll be on a high after getting knocked out like.

[WilliamPS]

Preferring a point at Villa to a win vs Palace doesn’t make much sense - a win is worth 3 points against Man City, Chelsea and Forest too. Plus beating Palace means even if lose to Villa, Villa will come out of the weekend at worst two points behind.

 

I don’t want to take on the forums maths and betting gurus but 3 is a bigger number than 1!

[Elliottman]

7 hours ago, alexf said:

Yeah I know we have beaten them away last year but realistically this is an unlikely result if we're honest, they have only lost once this season at home, just beaten a strong psg team in previous game so more likely to be on a high than crushed and disappointed, plus we will be missing our manager in the build up and in-game and have a day less to rest.

 

The palace match is the one to go all in on. 

On a high after a gruelling 90 minutes where they came a whisker of taking them to extra time and/or winning it?! I’d be very surprised. Didn’t look like it wt full time.

 

Tough game though. But tonight is the only one that matters right now. 

[jigen]

You and Man City are almost sure. Then is between Forest, Chelsea and Villa. For me Forest.