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The Europeometer™ (2024/25) - NUFC Qualify for Conference League (at least)

Rich

by Rich
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Stottie

Stottie

Posted
Posted
On 12/05/2025 at 06:20, Displayname said:

Technically its not. But the odds of us missing out of Europa is miniscule. This has to happen:

 

Palace wins against City.

Forest win both their games.

Villa win both their games.

Chelsea win with alot of goals vs Man Utd.

Newcastle losing both their games.

 

Odds of that happening is like 1000/1

 

Since Chelsea didn't win with a lot of goals, and they need to lose to Forest for Forest to leapfrog us on points, I take it that we are now assured of Europa League (by finishing in sixth) so long as we do not lose to Arsenal and Everton with a bigger hit to our goal difference than the hit to Chelsea's goal difference from them losing to Forest.

 

We are +3GD ahead of Chelsea, and they need to lose too to help Forest, so provided with do not lose our next two by a combined -4GD, we're in the Europa regardless of Forest-Chelsea. So us missing out on Europa is even more "miniscule" than it was before. Forest not winning tomorrow, or a point for us against Arsenal will confirm it.

 

This is a maths exercise only because I fully expect us to get results in both games and qualify for CL.

 

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Displayname

Displayname

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Stottie said:

 

Since Chelsea didn't win with a lot of goals, and they need to lose to Forest for Forest to leapfrog us on points, I take it that we are now assured of Europa League (by finishing in sixth) so long as we do not lose to Arsenal and Everton with a bigger hit to our goal difference than the hit to Chelsea's goal difference from them losing to Forest.

 

We are +3GD ahead of Chelsea, and they need to lose too to help Forest, so provided with do not lose our next two by a combined -4GD, we're in the Europa regardless of Forest-Chelsea. So us missing out on Europa is even more "miniscule" than it was before. Forest not winning tomorrow, or a point for us against Arsenal will confirm it.

 

This is a maths exercise only because I fully expect us to get results in both games and qualify for CL.

 

We are ahead on goals scored vs Chelsea so that means we have to get a combined -5gd in our last two.

So yeah, think its safe to say that we have qualified for Europa as a minimum now. 

City will probably win later today anyways to confirm it.

 

Europa isnt a bad place to land if the worst happens. Can fill up your bank account aswell if you are willing to make the bet on worst case scenario.

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Groundhog63

Groundhog63

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Choppy Chop Chop said:

I can't get Pickford having a blinder out of my head 

 

I can't get both Spurs AND Manure being so utterly fucking shit and still getting in the CL out of my tiny nappa. 

The other, notable, teams in that EL need shot with shit. 

 

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Pixelphish

Pixelphish

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, The Prophet said:

This is it, a favour would have been nice, but it was always more in hope than expectation. We've kept it in our own hands, which is all you can ask really. 

 

On a side note, that point at Brighton is looking very decent.

 

Let myself get my hopes up when I saw Man U had a 'strong' line up, even more so when it was approaching the final phase of the game. I'll never learn.

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bobbydazzla

bobbydazzla

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Benwell Lad said:

Are there any support groups out there to help you stop looking into this thread when you finally realise that it's not doing you any good but also know you're unable to kick it?


Pessimists Anonymous 

 

Hi, my names Bobby and I’m a doomaholic. It’s been 2 hours since I last predicted that everyone apart from Newcastle would win all their games….

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Optimistic Nut

Optimistic Nut

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Benwell Lad said:

Being unable to bet on us not qualifying as it's not offered (only the 1/14 on qualifying), what's the best way to cover or perm not qualifying using the top 5 finish odds ?

 

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/to-finish-outside-the-top-4

 

11/4 to finish outside the top 4. Bonus if we finish 5th where it's literally win-win.

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Stifler

Stifler

Posted
Posted (edited)
44 minutes ago, Benwell Lad said:

Being unable to bet on us not qualifying as it's not offered (only the 1/14 on qualifying), what's the best way to cover or perm not qualifying using the top 5 finish odds ?

I guess that’s saying something that the bookies are not offering the bet.

 

Probably bet everyone else winning their games and/or finishing in the top 5.

 

 

Edited by Stifler

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Displayname

Displayname

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Benwell Lad said:

Being unable to bet on us not qualifying as it's not offered (only the 1/14 on qualifying), what's the best way to cover or perm not qualifying using the top 5 finish odds ?

Dont really think there is a good way. Too many possible combinations. Better to just bet on the individual remaining games.

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SteV

SteV

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Benwell Lad said:

Being unable to bet on us not qualifying as it's not offered (only the 1/14 on qualifying), what's the best way to cover or perm not qualifying using the top 5 finish odds ?

365 have a ‘w/o Big 6’ market.

 

Villa are 9/2 and Forest 66/1. If we don’t make CL, one of them is coming in.

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Mazzy

Mazzy

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, The Prophet said:

I'm not sure what's more impressive. Villa's recent form or that they've only gained two points on during that run.

 

Villa getting into UCL from the position they were in would've been highly impressive if it weren't for the fact that Spurs and Man U are the games that will get them there. Lucky as fuck.

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Cf

Cf

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Groundhog63 said:

 

I can't get both Spurs AND Manure being so utterly fucking shit and still getting in the CL out of my tiny nappa. 

The other, notable, teams in that EL need shot with shit. 

 

 

It's utter utter bullshit. 

 

Needs to be an emergency rule of "if man utd or spurs win the EL then they don't qualify for Europe also we retire this competition because the final being played by 16th vs 17th brings the whole thing into disrepute". 

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Stottie

Stottie

Posted
Posted

Breaking the trophy drought, by beating all of the top four, and Europa League is a brilliant season.

CL is likely, will add more joy, and propel us further as a club, but that does not mean the lads don't deserve some "we're in Europa or better" appreciation if/when then gets confirmed first.

 

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