The Europeometer™ (2024/25)

[Paullow]

1 minute ago, SUPERTOON said:

Wouldn’t that mean Liverpool finish above us ?

Depending on how big their wins were. If we beat Leicester by 1, they'd need to beat Leicester, Villa and Southampton by a combined total of 8, 2 and 9 and so on. If they were within 4 by the time they play already relegated Southampton on the final day, I certainly wouldn't be thinking a draw secures this, as Liverpool could easily put 5+ past them, as they have done to Leeds, Bmouth and obviously Man Utd.

[Heron]

25 minutes ago, SUPERTOON said:

Wouldn’t that mean Liverpool finish above us ?

If they outscored us. They're currently 7 goals behind. They can get a max of 71 points. 5 points would also see us on 71.

[Heron]

23 minutes ago, Paullow said:

Depending on how big their wins were. If we beat Leicester by 1, they'd need to beat Leicester, Villa and Southampton by a combined total of 8, 2 and 9 and so on. If they were within 4 by the time they play already relegated Southampton on the final day, I certainly wouldn't be thinking a draw secures this, as Liverpool could easily put 5+ past them, as they have done to Leeds, Bmouth and obviously Man Utd.

Whilst it isn't impossible, that's a whole new level of nerves like

[TheBrownBottle]

28 minutes ago, Paullow said:

Depending on how big their wins were. If we beat Leicester by 1, they'd need to beat Leicester, Villa and Southampton by a combined total of 8, 2 and 9 and so on. If they were within 4 by the time they play already relegated Southampton on the final day, I certainly wouldn't be thinking a draw secures this, as Liverpool could easily put 5+ past them, as they have done to Leeds, Bmouth and obviously Man Utd.

I’ve read that a few times and I’m still not sure what you mean?

[ExiledGeordie]

My only concern is the players looked a bit jaded today, some looked off form and maybe we have a good few who lack experience to close out this situation. Maybe the pressure is getting to them a bit but hardly a surprise. Brighton is the key, it will be tough but I think with the home crowd we’ll beat them then beat Leicester to secure top four. 

[TheBrownBottle]

At present our GD is +7 better off.  If we take 5 points in the remaining three games it can only improve by a minimum of +1.

 

I don’t see Liverpool thrashing Villa.  They could thrash Southampton.  I think Leicester will put up a fight.

 

I still think they’ll draw to either Villa or Leicester at a minimum.  I’m pretty convinced four more points is likely to wrap this up. 

[Heron]

4 minutes ago, TheBrownBottle said:

I’ve read that a few times and I’m still not sure what you mean?

So if we draw 2 and win 1, we would have a minimum of +8 goal difference more than Liverpool. Therefore, Liverpool would need to win those three games by a combined total of 8ngoals to match us. Or if we won by 2 in our win, Liverpool would need 9, 3 and 10 etc.

[TheBrownBottle]

Just now, Heron said:

So if we draw 2 and win 1, we would have a minimum of +8 goal difference more than Liverpool. Therefore, Liverpool would need to win those three games by a combined total of 8ngoals to match us. Or if we won by 2 in our win, Liverpool would need 9, 3 and 10 etc.

Got you  makes sense

[Heron]

Just now, TheBrownBottle said:

At present our GD is +7 better off.  If we take 5 points in the remaining three games it can only improve by a minimum of +1.

 

I don’t see Liverpool thrashing Villa.  They could thrash Southampton.  I think Leicester will put up a fight.

 

I still think they’ll draw to either Villa or Leicester at a minimum.  I’m pretty convinced four more points is likely to wrap this up. 

I think Villa might get a draw like, just like Brighton probably will here, and then (assuming Liverpool beat Leicester), they're two points behind us with 2 games left. If Liverpool then draw with Villa they'd be 1 behind but then I'd fancy us to beat Leicester. Which would leave them 4 points behind with only one to play...(I think)

[TheBrownBottle]

2 minutes ago, Heron said:

I think Villa might get a draw like, just like Brighton probably will here, and then (assuming Liverpool beat Leicester), they're two points behind us with 2 games left. If Liverpool then draw with Villa they'd be 1 behind but then I'd fancy us to beat Leicester. Which would leave them 4 points behind with only one to play...(I think)

Yep, if we match Liverpool‘s next two results it’s over mathematically.  I think we will tbh - Brighton and Leicester won’t be pushovers (both will be difficult games I think) but I think those travelling to Stamford Bridge will be going down to see if we finish 3rd or 4th

[andyc35i]

I’d much prefer them to come unstuck against Leicester on Monday night and then we get past Brighton - don’t think I can take the nerves if they get to one point behind us before Thursday!

[TheBrownBottle]

6 minutes ago, andyc35i said:

I’d much prefer them to come unstuck against Leicester on Monday night and then we get past Brighton - don’t think I can take the nerves if they get to one point behind us before Thursday!

There’s a chance they do tbf - they won the last three games, all at home and they didn’t look at all convincing in any of them

[The College Dropout]

4 minutes ago, TheBrownBottle said:

There’s a chance they do tbf - they won the last three games, all at home and they didn’t look at all convincing in any of them

It’s just that Leicester are awful. 
 

But I also think they can get a result. 

[Ketsbaia]

Definitely think Leicester will score past them.

 

Unfortunately, they probably also concede at least three, on account of being horrific.

 

 

Edited May 13, 2023 by Ketsbaia

[The College Dropout]

1 minute ago, Ketsbaia said:

Definitely think Leicester will score past them.

 

Unfortunately, they probably also concede at least three, on account of being horrific.

 

 

 

Aye. 
 

Liverpool can concede 3 themselves though. 

[Erikse]

What happened to that Klopp investigation? Why is there still no punishment??

[Kanj]

Rafa would be telling us to look at the table, look at the fixtures and it’s a point accumulation. Tie your away games and you win your own. We ALWAYS has 4 matches to get 7 points. What order that’s achieved won’t matter. 

[nufcjb]

Wouldn't a miracle Leicester win on Monday against Liverpool, combined with a win for us against Brighton on Thursday, seal it for us?

 

Stranger things have happened in football and unexpected things can happen. We thought we'd win yesterday, Liverpool will think Leicester will be a walkover for them. Let's see.

 

 

Edited May 14, 2023 by nufcjb

[ohmelads]

We have two home games while Liverpool have two away games, which is the main positive to take. Liverpool's run of 6 wins has included 4 home games, and the last 5 of those 6 have been very tight games. They've somehow won all but mostly thanks to a string of controversial reffing decisions, and I can see that continuing against Villa if needed. Klopp gave the officials an absolute bollocking after the Spurs game was too close for comfort. They haven't been playing well and they're worse away, but they are facing the teams 19th and 20th in the table. I think they'll win all three and it comes down to us.

 

We can afford a defeat but we have to win twice. Draws now don't do us any good; we could even take 5 pts from 9 and still finish 5th on GD if Liverpool managed a +8 goal difference in their next three. That's not easy to do but in our last 3 wins our goal difference was +10. Also consider that they're playing Southampton who are 20th for a reason and now have nothing to play for. If we draw against Brighton, then it will go to the last day, unless Liverpool slip up.

 

We can wrap it up no matter what before the last game by winning our two home games. If we do that then we can look back on Leeds as a point gained.

[Kazzie]

12 hours ago, Matt1892 said:

? Drew 1-0

 

Interesting score line for a draw

[RUHRLYASLEEVESUP]

"

Its all about the accumulation of points"

[ExiledGeordie]

54 minutes ago, ohmelads said:

We have two home games while Liverpool have two away games, which is the main positive to take. Liverpool's run of 6 wins has included 4 home games, and the last 5 of those 6 have been very tight games. They've somehow won all but mostly thanks to a string of controversial reffing decisions, and I can see that continuing against Villa if needed. Klopp gave the officials an absolute bollocking after the Spurs game was too close for comfort. They haven't been playing well and they're worse away, but they are facing the teams 19th and 20th in the table. I think they'll win all three and it comes down to us.

 

We can afford a defeat but we have to win twice. Draws now don't do us any good; we could even take 5 pts from 9 and still finish 5th on GD if Liverpool managed a +8 goal difference in their next three. That's not easy to do but in our last 3 wins our goal difference was +10. Also consider that they're playing Southampton who are 20th for a reason and now have nothing to play for. If we draw against Brighton, then it will go to the last day, unless Liverpool slip up.

 

We can wrap it up no matter what before the last game by winning our two home games. If we do that then we can look back on Leeds as a point gained.

If someone had said to us at the start of the season we’d be sitting 3rd on gd with two home games coming up and a chance to wrap up top four people would’ve probably laughed ? Brighton is the key one I feel, what a massive game that is.

 

 

Edited May 14, 2023 by ExiledGeordie

[jack j]

4/1 to finish outside the top 4 for the gamblers amongst us

We were 5/1 at start of play yesterday. Be about 7/2 when Liverpool win tomorrow

 

See how decent villa really are next Saturday....

[Andybiotics]

7 hours ago, Erikse said:

What happened to that Klopp investigation? Why is there still no punishment??

Incident happened 2 weeks ago now, blatantly being swept under the carpet.

[TRon]

6 hours ago, Kanji said:

Rafa would be telling us to look at the table, look at the fixtures and it’s a point accumulation. Tie your away games and you win your own. We ALWAYS has 4 matches to get 7 points. What order that’s achieved won’t matter. 

 

Agreed. But there are still some games which are easier to win than others regardless of the order they are played in. I said even before the Arsenal game that the Leeds and Leicester games were the ones I was pretty confident about. Leeds has gone now, so Brighton at home has to be the other one now after Leicester. They are a better team than Leeds, but they don't have goalscorers, so maybe that should give us confidence of closing that one out. As long as we stop shipping cheap goals.

 

As for what Liverpool or Man U do, I stopped caring weeks ago. Always thought Liverpool were capable of winning 8 or 9 games in a row. The arguments about VAR favouring the big 6 are immaterial now as well. It was always down to us winning a couple of games out of the last 5, and we have only ourselves to blame if we don't do it.