The Europeometer™ (2024/25)

[mondonewc]

On 27/09/2023 at 01:36, Skeletor said:

Will stick my neck on the line and say Spurs are in a false position right now and will fall away in Spurs like fashion again.

I agree, they aren't all that, couple of injuries and they're in trouble, have no depth. Fancy us to finish above them for sure.

[The College Dropout]

9 hours ago, mondonewc said:

I agree, they aren't all that, couple of injuries and they're in trouble, have no depth. Fancy us to finish above them for sure.

Could've said the same about us last season.

[Geogaddi]

I still think the top 5 will be the same as last season just not in the same order . Man United will improve , Brighton and Villa are similar to last season and Spurs aren’t as good as the league table shows .

[AJ9]

Think Spurs will continue to impress all season. Touch and go with Man Utd. A couple more bad results and things start to turn very sour. Liverpool look nailed on, so I think we will be fighting it out with Villa and Brighton.

[Abacus]

That Liverpool defeat is still a kick in the pants. If only we'd won that, as we should have, we'd be up in fourth place now with them down in 7th.

 

Ah well, hopefully we roll them over at Anfield - that's probably now the game I'm most looking forward to.

[Coffee_Johnny]

Update on tracker for sixth place finish (62 points). Assumptions made are in Spoiler below. 

Spoiler

Assuming we are aiming for a top six season, then taking 6th as a minimum target, here is a way of gauging when we will, on average, pick-up the 62 points likely to be required (average for PL).

Categorising the teams (mainly on last season’s position) into four tiers and predicting we will pick-up (rounded-up) 9pts from T1 (all tiers ten games except 8 in Tier 1), 16 pts from Tier 2, 18pts from T3, and 19pts from T4 teams. 

Tier 1: 8 games 24 pts available, 9 predcited (1 win 2 draws 1 loss at H; 1 win 1 draw 2 losses Away = 5pts + 4 = 9pts). So, 1.25ppg at Home and 1.0ppg Away.

Man City

Arsenal

Man Utd

NUFC

Liverpool

Tier 2: 10 games 30 pts available, 16pts predicted (3 wins 1 draw 1 loss at Home; 2 wins, 0  draw, 3 losses Away =10 +6pts). So, 2.0ppg at Home  and 1.2 ppg Away

Brighton 

Aston Villa

Spurs

Brentford

Chelsea

Tier 3: 10 games 30 pts available, 18pts predicted (3 wins 1 draw 1 loss at H; 2 wins 2 draws 1 loss Away= 10+8pts). So, 2.0ppg at H ome and 1.6ppg Away.

Palace

Fulham

Wolves

West Ham

Bournemouh

Tier 4 10 games 30 pts available, 19pts predicted (3 wins and 2 draws at Home; 2 wins 2 draws 1 loss Away= 11+8pts) . So, 2.2ppg at H and 1.6ppg Away .

Forest

Everton

Burnley

Sheffield Utd

Luton 

Remember this is a prediction for 6th.  Taking into account the relative difficulty of games would mean the following pattern of picking up points at different stages of the season.  The average points per month for the top five is also shown, just using number of games per month. I'll correct this as the games inevitably get moved around. The points per match are just indicative, it’s the points per month which will show how on track we are. 

In short, taking account of relative difficulty of the games as they fall across the season, we are on track for the average points total for a fifth place finish (12). 11 points, at end of September equates to a fourth place finish. 

 

 

Edited October 1, 2023 by Coffee_Johnny

[The College Dropout]

Liverpool can challenge for the title.  They’ve got the best attack in the league and tremendous depth in attack.  
 

Man City and Arsenal are shoe-ins too obvs.  
 

All 3 of those could get 80+ points. 
 

Spurs were awful last season and finished on 60 points. They were also in the CL. If they can keep Son and Maddison fit they’ve got a good chance of getting 70+ points this season. They’ve got a positive atmosphere.  It looks like they’ve added 3-4 good additions to the squad.  
 

I think Spurs are a bigger threat than Brighton and Villa (and West Ham). those have to be better than they’ve ever been in the PL before and have European football to contend with. All 3 have the potential to go deep.  Getting 70+ points for the first time in the PL And 10+ games in Europe until April I think is beyond them. 

[The College Dropout]

Obviously thoughts will change base on performance, injuries, signings etc. Brighton crashing out at the group stage but being top 4 in the league come Christmas for example - changes things drastically.  

[Joelinton7]

Don’t think it’s doable this year with the extra games and step up in quality we’re having to take. We’re already being hit by several injuries in one go, and not short ones. Think we will get Europe but not CL. 

[STM]

10 minutes ago, The College Dropout said:

Liverpool can challenge for the title.  They’ve got the best attack in the league and tremendous depth in attack.  
 

Man City and Arsenal are shoe-ins too obvs.  
 

All 3 of those could get 80+ points. 
 

Spurs were awful last season and finished on 60 points. They were also in the CL. If they can keep Son and Maddison fit they’ve got a good chance of getting 70+ points this season. They’ve got a positive atmosphere.  It looks like they’ve added 3-4 good additions to the squad.  
 

I think Spurs are a bigger threat than Brighton and Villa (and West Ham). those have to be better than they’ve ever been in the PL before and have European football to contend with. All 3 have the potential to go deep.  Getting 70+ points for the first time in the PL And 10+ games in Europe until April I think is beyond them. 

Completely agree with this.

 

If we finish above Spurs we will be in CL IMO. Is 5th CL this year?

 

I expect a fight back from Man Utd, probably post Xmas and possibly post Ten Hag.

 

Right now:

 

City

Liverpool

Arsenal

Spurs/Newcastle 

Spurs/Newcastle

Villa

Brighton

 

Then stick Man Utd in that mix once they have sorted themselves.

[The College Dropout]

Didn’t mention Man Utd.  They too are obviously contenders and a lot depends on them. With the toxicity around the club it could implode. 
 

 

If they implode and there are 5 CL spots. I really fancy our chances.  

[The College Dropout]

If they sack ETH they fold imo.  I’m really flip floppy on him as a manager. But him going would end their season. 

[The Prophet]

Top five will do.

[RUHRLYASLEEVESUP]

26 minutes ago, Joelinton7 said:

Don’t think it’s doable this year with the extra games and step up in quality we’re having to take. We’re already being hit by several injuries in one go, and not short ones. Think we will get Europe but not CL. 

How's the hammy? 

[Geogaddi]

I think we are a better team than last season and even with the extra games can still get a similar amount of points which should be enough for top 5 again.We are still a very very good team and you have to be a good team to beat us. People seem to be getting carried away by Villa after yesterday but both us and Liverpool demolished them.

[STM]

Also, we just need to be in the mix come February. Chances are that our CL campaign won't last that long.

[The College Dropout]

29 minutes ago, STM said:

Also, we just need to be in the mix come February. Chances are that our CL campaign won't last that long.

Cmon man. 
 

We’re such a momentum club atm. Positive atmosphere of being in the CL or at least in Europe is worth points to us (hopefully more than the extra games cost us).  

R16 exit to Real Madrid minimum pls. 

 

 

Edited October 1, 2023 by The College Dropout

[Erikse]

40 minutes ago, Geogaddi said:

I think we are a better team than last season and even with the extra games can still get a similar amount of points which should be enough for top 5 again.We are still a very very good team and you have to be a good team to beat us. People seem to be getting carried away by Villa after yesterday but both us and Liverpool demolished them.

 

Not getting carried away by Villa, but they can very well take a lot of points from the next 5 fixtures. In that case they will be top 3 or 4 after 12 rounds, and then some people will for sure get carried away by them. I'm sure they will fall a bit when they face some tougher fixtures later, but there will be a good feeling around the club if they keep it up the next few games. Can't really look too much into the opening game.

[jonny1403]

I find it crazy that we have four more points and 3 more wins than this time last season.

[Coffee_Johnny]

On 01/10/2023 at 15:33, Erikse said:

 

Not getting carried away by Villa, but they can very well take a lot of points from the next 5 fixtures. In that case they will be top 3 or 4 after 12 rounds, and then some people will for sure get carried away by them. I'm sure they will fall a bit when they face some tougher fixtures later, but there will be a good feeling around the club if they keep it up the next few games. Can't really look too much into the opening game.

There’s part of me that likes that we thumped Villa, Brighton thumped us, and Villa thumped Brighton. Plus we have played Man City twice and had a 1-0 win each. 

[SteV]

Man Utd having a good go at making sure it stays at 4 rather than 5 places for next seasons CL…

[brummie]

I am feeling very positively currently. I think we will have lots of ups and downs still, because this time 12 months ago, we were 17th and stinking of relegation, and these things take time.

 

However. The 5-1 at your place was a freak result for us. We went to pieces when we saw Mings go off on oxygen, a few days after Buendia did the same. End of the day, though, it's just one game. 

 

We have also been without Moreno and Ramsey (till last week) since last season - our entire first choice left side - and Mings and Buendia, big, big players for us.

 

Despite all that, we are 5th, and our games so far have included you, Chelsea and Liverpool away, not easy fixtures. Winning 5 out of 7 league games despite all the above, and despite not really playing near our best so far is pretty fucking impressive. We've taken more points in 2023 than anyone except Manchester City and Arsenal (who have taken the same). We have won 10 consecutive home league games.

 

Europe will make things tougher, but then again, there's a difference between facing matches against some team from Mostar and Alkmaar than there is Dortmund and PSG, so it shouldn't be too tough to manage, plus we've clearly opted out of the Carabou Cup.

 

I am not saying we'll do this or that, but I see an awful lot of people (not talking about here, but in general) not really paying attention to what we've done.

 

 

Edited October 3, 2023 by brummie

[Skeletor]

4 hours ago, brummie said:

I am feeling very positively currently. I think we will have lots of ups and downs still, because this time 12 months ago, we were 17th and stinking of relegation, and these things take time.

 

However. The 5-1 at your place was a freak result for us. We went to pieces when we saw Mings go off on oxygen, a few days after Buendia did the same. End of the day, though, it's just one game. 

 

We have also been without Moreno and Ramsey (till last week) since last season - our entire first choice left side - and Mings and Buendia, big, big players for us.

 

Despite all that, we are 5th, and our games so far have included you, Chelsea and Liverpool away, not easy fixtures. Winning 5 out of 7 league games despite all the above, and despite not really playing near our best so far is pretty fucking impressive. We've taken more points in 2023 than anyone except Manchester City and Arsenal (who have taken the same). We have won 10 consecutive home league games.

 

Europe will make things tougher, but then again, there's a difference between facing matches against some team from Mostar and Alkmaar than there is Dortmund and PSG, so it shouldn't be too tough to manage, plus we've clearly opted out of the Carabou Cup.

 

I am not saying we'll do this or that, but I see an awful lot of people (not talking about here, but in general) not really paying attention to what we've done.

 

 

 

 

[magvicar]

5 hours ago, brummie said:

I am feeling very positively currently. I think we will have lots of ups and downs still, because this time 12 months ago, we were 17th and stinking of relegation, and these things take time.

 

However. The 5-1 at your place was a freak result for us. We went to pieces when we saw Mings go off on oxygen, a few days after Buendia did the same. End of the day, though, it's just one game. 

 

We have also been without Moreno and Ramsey (till last week) since last season - our entire first choice left side - and Mings and Buendia, big, big players for us.

 

Despite all that, we are 5th, and our games so far have included you, Chelsea and Liverpool away, not easy fixtures. Winning 5 out of 7 league games despite all the above, and despite not really playing near our best so far is pretty fucking impressive. We've taken more points in 2023 than anyone except Manchester City and Arsenal (who have taken the same). We have won 10 consecutive home league games.

 

Europe will make things tougher, but then again, there's a difference between facing matches against some team from Mostar and Alkmaar than there is Dortmund and PSG, so it shouldn't be too tough to manage, plus we've clearly opted out of the Carabou Cup.

 

I am not saying we'll do this or that, but I see an awful lot of people (not talking about here, but in general) not really paying attention to what we've done.

 

 

 

I think just about everyone is paying attention to what you have done up to now.

You have a top class manager and some top players who have started to gel so nobody is going to think you are an easy touch in any game.

This league will be the toughest for years, I think.

I don't think any club is going to walk through it, even though Man city are always touted to do that.

 

I'll still take Newcastle to finish above Villa but then again I would say that.

 

[Matt1892]

Man Utd need to do something quickly or they risk getting cut adrift from the Champions League contenders, although a season out of the Champions League is hardly catastrophic for them if they don’t stick with ETH.