The Europeometer™ (2024/25)

[Gallowgate Toon]

This month really is the key period, like. If we can get through this week without losing to PSG and hopefully getting the better of Man U, you'd like to think there's some added hope with some players back on the horizon - Longstaff, Barnes, Anderson, and Wilson. Perhaps Botman too.

 

If we get to the end of the month and we're within 6 points of 4th, I reckon we've got a real shot at kicking on in the second half of the campaign.

[jack j]

Mental that man u are only 2 points behind spurs and 5 points from city.

[Cf]

https://understat.com/league/EPL

 

We're 2nd in xPTS.

 

Man Utd are 11th 

[Kid Icarus]

19 minutes ago, brummie said:

 

It's absolutely amazing how Man United manage to spend most of the season being a disorganised joke yet still seem like they're fucking welded into the top four mix.

 

Similar to you, they haven't really had a tough run of games yet (or at least haven't come out the other side of them with points, unlike Villa). Fair to say that yesterday was your biggest test you've had and passed this season? 

 

Both yours and Man United's December looks tough. 

 

 

Edited November 27, 2023 by Kid Icarus

[Coffee_Johnny]

Update on tracker towards a top six finish, taking account of the relative difficulty of games as they fall across the season. 23 points, at the end of November, puts us bang on track for a fourth place finish for the average PL season (assumptions in hidden content quoted). 6th would be 21 points. 5th would be 22 points to date. Third 25, second 27 and first 30. 
So at present Arsenal are bang on the points tally for the average PL Champions, at this stage. 

 

 

Spoiler

Assuming we are aiming for a top six season, then taking 6th as a minimum target, here is a way of gauging when we will, on average, pick-up the 61 points likely to be required (average for PL).

Categorising the teams (mainly on last season’s position) into four tiers and predicting we will pick-up (rounded-up) 9pts from T1 (all tiers ten games except 8 in Tier 1), 16 pts from Tier 2, 18pts from T3, and 19pts from T4 teams. 

Tier 1: 8 games 24 pts available, 9 predcited (1 win 2 draws 1 loss at H; 1 win 1 draw 2 losses Away = 5pts + 4 = 9pts). So, 1.25ppg at Home and 1.0ppg Away.

Man City

Arsenal

Man Utd

NUFC

Liverpool

Tier 2: 10 games 30 pts available, 16pts predicted (3 wins 1 draw 1 loss at Home; 2 wins, 0  draw, 3 losses Away =10 +6pts). So, 2.0ppg at Home  and 1.2 ppg Away

Brighton 

Aston Villa

Spurs

Brentford

Chelsea

Tier 3: 10 games 30 pts available, 18pts predicted (3 wins 1 draw 1 loss at H; 2 wins 2 draws 1 loss Away= 10+8pts). So, 2.0ppg at H ome and 1.6ppg Away.

Palace

Fulham

Wolves

West Ham

Bournemouh

Tier 4 10 games 30 pts available, 19pts predicted (3 wins and 2 draws at Home; 2 wins 2 draws 1 loss Away= 11+8pts) . So, 2.2ppg at H and 1.6ppg Away .

Forest

Everton

Burnley

Sheffield Utd

Luton 

Remember this is a prediction for 6th.  Taking into account the relative difficulty of games would mean the following pattern of picking up points at different stages of the season.  The average points per month for the top five is also shown, just using number of games per month. I'll correct this as the games inevitably get moved around. The points per match are just indicative, it’s the points per month which will show how on track we are. 

 

[jack j]

8 minutes ago, Kid Icarus said:

 

Similar to you, they haven't really had a tough run of games yet (or at least haven't come out the other side of them with points, unlike Villa). Fair to say that yesterday was your biggest test you've had and passed this season? 

 

Both yours and Man United's December looks tough. 

 

 

 

I think man utd will take more points out of December than us looking at both sets of fixtures

[Kid Icarus]

5 minutes ago, jack j said:

I think man utd will take more points out of December than us looking at both sets of fixtures

 

Maybe, but I think their fixture list is undeniably harder than ours. We have Man United, Fulham, Forest at home, with Everton, Spurs, Luton away, they have Chelsea, Bournemouth, Villa at home, with Newcastle, Liverpool, West Ham, Forest away. Both their home and away fixtures are tougher, but especially their away games. 

 

 

Edited November 27, 2023 by Kid Icarus

[Matt1892]

15 minutes ago, jack j said:

Mental that man u are only 2 points behind spurs and 5 points from city.

 

They have been good at winning the games you would expect them to win apart from against Palace, whereas we have only won one away game this season.

They are five points down on the same games compared to last season so they are going to need to pick up their form against top half teams, which they have an opportunity to do against us.

 

[Guest]

54 minutes ago, The College Dropout said:

Villa have had injuries. But the biggest ones came in August, and they went out and got replacements.

 

And Villa, Emery have managed the extra games well.

 

Easier to protect players in the Conference than the CL tbf. 

[SUPERTOON]

3 minutes ago, Optimistic Nut said:

 

Easier to protect players in the Conference than the CL tbf. 

Aye, it’s not even worth comparing tbh.

[Erikse]

31 minutes ago, Coffee_Johnny said:

Update on tracker towards a top six finish, taking account of the relative difficulty of games as they fall across the season. 23 points, at the end of November, puts us bang on track for a fourth place finish for the average PL season (assumptions in hidden content quoted). 6th would be 21 points. 5th would be 22 points to date. Third 25, second 27 and first 30. 
So at present Arsenal are bang on the points tally for the average PL Champions, at this stage. 

 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Assuming we are aiming for a top six season, then taking 6th as a minimum target, here is a way of gauging when we will, on average, pick-up the 61 points likely to be required (average for PL).

Categorising the teams (mainly on last season’s position) into four tiers and predicting we will pick-up (rounded-up) 9pts from T1 (all tiers ten games except 8 in Tier 1), 16 pts from Tier 2, 18pts from T3, and 19pts from T4 teams. 

Tier 1: 8 games 24 pts available, 9 predcited (1 win 2 draws 1 loss at H; 1 win 1 draw 2 losses Away = 5pts + 4 = 9pts). So, 1.25ppg at Home and 1.0ppg Away.

Man City

Arsenal

Man Utd

NUFC

Liverpool

Tier 2: 10 games 30 pts available, 16pts predicted (3 wins 1 draw 1 loss at Home; 2 wins, 0  draw, 3 losses Away =10 +6pts). So, 2.0ppg at Home  and 1.2 ppg Away

Brighton 

Aston Villa

Spurs

Brentford

Chelsea

Tier 3: 10 games 30 pts available, 18pts predicted (3 wins 1 draw 1 loss at H; 2 wins 2 draws 1 loss Away= 10+8pts). So, 2.0ppg at H ome and 1.6ppg Away.

Palace

Fulham

Wolves

West Ham

Bournemouh

Tier 4 10 games 30 pts available, 19pts predicted (3 wins and 2 draws at Home; 2 wins 2 draws 1 loss Away= 11+8pts) . So, 2.2ppg at H and 1.6ppg Away .

Forest

Everton

Burnley

Sheffield Utd

Luton 

Remember this is a prediction for 6th.  Taking into account the relative difficulty of games would mean the following pattern of picking up points at different stages of the season.  The average points per month for the top five is also shown, just using number of games per month. I'll correct this as the games inevitably get moved around. The points per match are just indicative, it’s the points per month which will show how on track we are. 

 

 

Just goes to show how crazy the top 8 is this season. Right now:

30 = 1st

27 = 5th

25 = 6th

22 = 8th

21 = 9th

 

 

Edited November 27, 2023 by Erikse

[The College Dropout]

3 minutes ago, Kid Icarus said:

 

Similar to you, they haven't really had a tough run of games yet. Fair to say that yesterday was your biggest test you've had and passed this season? 

 

Both yours and Man United's December looks tough. 

Beating nearly all the teams you should beat home and away gets you 80% of the way to top 4/5.

 

There's 60 points on offer for the bottom 10 teams. If you can win 16 of those that gets you 48 points. A long way to 70 points. Can be fairly bad against the top 10 and still get 4th/5th (6-7 wins and a few draws out of 20).

 

I mean... that's what they did last season right? Bad against the top 8, maybe only 4 wins. 

[gbandit]

Feels like we’ve entered a new era in the premier league. Can’t see it going backwards from here, we’re going to

compete here from now on. Villa look like they have the potential to maintain their level as well but we’ll know more by the end of the season. Brighton are consistently up there now. Chelsea look spent and if they don’t turn it around quickly they’re fucked. Spurs are an unknown other than the fact they won’t be winning anything. Arsenal are back consistently as a top three team. 
 

Our challenge is consistently being in the group of Man City, Liverpool and Arsenal. I think we can rival Arsenal and Liverpool and be better than them within the next three years potentially. Man City, I just can’t see us getting past them until Pep goes 

[The College Dropout]

Chelsea have such a good academy that they will never be too far away from it IMO.

 

 

In fact - having to sell players, reduce the wage bill and the higher wages and rely more on academy players will probably help them on the pitch.\

 

Our biggest challenge is scaling the squad at the right quantity and quality within FFP. And scaling performances across EU competition.

 

In large part, this is what the season will come down too imo.

[Froggy]

53 minutes ago, brummie said:

 

It's absolutely amazing how Man United manage to spend most of the season being a disorganised joke yet still seem like they're fucking welded into the top four mix.

 

Character. 

 

[gbandit]

1 minute ago, The College Dropout said:

Chelsea have such a good academy that they will never be too far away from it IMO.

 

 

In fact - having to sell players, reduce the wage bill and the higher wages and rely more on academy players will probably help them on the pitch.\

 

Our biggest challenge is scaling the squad at the right quantity and quality within FFP. And scaling performances across EU competition.

 

In large part, this is what the season will come down too imo.

Perhaps, their huge contract offers to players is a major risk though. Offering 8-year contracts on massive wages basically relies on those players being a hit or Saudi Arabia fronting up major money for them. As it stands, no one is going to pay anywhere near close to the value they paid for Cucurella, Caicedo, Mudryk amongst others. If they have a few seasons out of Europe I think they’ll capitulate 

[Froggy]

31 minutes ago, Kid Icarus said:

 

Maybe, but I think their fixture list is undeniably harder than ours. We have Man United, Fulham, Forest at home, with Everton, Spurs, Luton away, they have Chelsea, Bournemouth, Villa at home, with Newcastle, Liverpool, West Ham, Forest away. Both their home and away fixtures are tougher, but especially their away games. 

 

Home:

Chelsea - 1

Bournemouth - 3

Villa - 3

 

Away:

Newcastle - 0

Liverpool - 0

West Ham - 1

Forest - 3

 

This is what I'm expecting. 

[Erikse]

43 minutes ago, Optimistic Nut said:

 

Easier to protect players in the Conference than the CL tbf. 

 

Especially when your entire groups consists of teams that you need to be at your best to beat..

[Guest]

Not taking away what he's doing there because it's brilliant. I still think we'll reel them in eventually. 

[Kid Icarus]

27 minutes ago, The College Dropout said:

Beating nearly all the teams you should beat home and away gets you 80% of the way to top 4/5.

 

There's 60 points on offer for the bottom 10 teams. If you can win 16 of those that gets you 48 points. A long way to 70 points. Can be fairly bad against the top 10 and still get 4th/5th (6-7 wins and a few draws out of 20).

 

I mean... that's what they did last season right? Bad against the top 8, maybe only 4 wins. 

 

Last season post that Brentford 4-0 loss they didn't look anything special but they looked a lot better than they do this season imo. They're a point ahead of where they were at this point last season, but by this point last season they had played Brighton, Liverpool, Arsenal, Man City, Newcastle, Spurs, Chelsea, West Ham, Villa, losing only 4 matches against Brighton, Brentford, Man City, Villa, while picking up wins against Arsenal, Liverpool, Spurs, West Ham and draws against Newcastle and Chelsea.

 

This season they've only played 4 out of those 9 teams - Spurs, Arsenal, Man City, Brighton and lost all of them handedly. 

 

They're Man United and they're often incredibly spawny, but last season it didn't look as bumbling as it does this season when I've seen them. They're not as bad as Spurs were last season for being absolutely shit yet still picking up points, but they feel like they're much more in that territory than they were last season. 

 

 

Edited November 27, 2023 by Kid Icarus

[Erikse]

19 minutes ago, Froggy said:

 

Home:

Chelsea - 1

Bournemouth - 3

Villa - 3

 

Away:

Newcastle - 0

Liverpool - 0

West Ham - 1

Forest - 3

 

This is what I'm expecting. 

 

Our game against you guys is hard to predict. If we get more injuries tomorrow, then it's tough for us. We also basically have to play the same players every game at this point, so fatigue will be a factor aswell.

 

 

Edited November 27, 2023 by Erikse

[Kid Icarus]

Also worth repeating again that despite the harder start, the injury crisis, and playing more matches, we're 2 points ahead of where we were last season. 

 

That might be due to change though, last season we won every match from week 13 to 17 and were unbeaten until week 24

[The College Dropout]

46 minutes ago, Kid Icarus said:

 

Last season post that Brentford 4-0 loss they didn't look anything special but they looked a lot better than they do this season imo. They're a point ahead of where they were at this point last season, but by this point last season they had played Brighton, Liverpool, Arsenal, Man City, Newcastle, Spurs, Chelsea, West Ham, Villa, losing only 4 matches against Brighton, Brentford, Man City, Villa, while picking up wins against Arsenal, Liverpool, Spurs, West Ham and draws against Newcastle and Chelsea.

 

This season they've only played 4 out of those 9 teams - Spurs, Arsenal, Man City, Brighton and lost all of them handedly. 

 

They're Man United and they're often incredibly spawny, but last season it didn't look as bumbling as it does this season when I've seen them. They're not as bad as Spurs were last season for being absolutely shit yet still picking up points, but they feel like they're much more in that territory than they were last season. 

 

 

 

I do feel like they are in Spurs territory. Spurs were generally good for the first 10 games of the season. 10-20 they started to concede, throw away leads and Conte started acting up. Their form 11 to whenever Conte left wasn't top 4 form. But their first 10 games were title challenge numbers so they were still in the mix.

 

I agree that Man U look worse this season. Last season against weaker teams they looked solid at the back and that was reflected in De Gea winning the golden boot. That's not the case this season. 

 

If we don't progress well in the cups. We can win 8 out of 10 league games post-January with a fit squad. So my hope is he stay in touching distance until January. Deep European and Cup runs and I don't think we can keep pace, even with a fully fit squad.

[Tiresias]

1 minute ago, The College Dropout said:

I do feel like they are in Spurs territory. Spurs were generally good for the first 10 games of the season. 10-20 they started to concede, throw away leads and Conte started acting up. Their form 11 to whenever Conte left wasn't top 4 form. But their first 10 games were title challenge numbers so they were still in the mix.

 

I agree that Man U look worse this season. Last season against weaker teams they looked solid at the back and that was reflected in De Gea winning the golden boot. That's not the case this season. 

 

If we don't progress well in the cups. We can win 8 out of 10 league games post-January with a fit squad. So my hope is he stay in touching distance until January. Deep European and Cup runs and I don't think we can keep pace, even with a fully fit squad.

 

Blimey don't remember him winning the golden Boot, did that surprisingly under the radar! 

[Froggy]

55 minutes ago, Erikse said:

Our game against you guys is hard to predict. If we get more injuries tomorrow, then it's tough for us. We also basically have to play the same players every game at this point, so fatigue will be a factor aswell.

 

We have to play Galatasaray in a must win game in Turkey on Wednesday. We'll be tired ourselves. I think that's big trouble against your style. 

 

Just hoping for a Bruno Fernandes masterclass.  Hopefully Rashford dropped as well.