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The TopFourometer™ (2023/24)  

628 members have voted

  1. 1. How likely are we to finish top four this season? 0 = nee chance, 5 = can’t call it, 10 = nailed on marra



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16 minutes ago, 54 said:

Statistically, we have the "Easiest" run in of any Premier League team, with Villa the 4th hardest:

 

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It’s also going to get to a point where a lot of those teams we have left to play have nothing to play for while we still do 

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Looking at the table now it's pretty clear we're going to finish either 7th or 8th. What that would get us in terms of europe is the ECL spot at best.

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7 minutes ago, gbandit said:

It’s also going to get to a point where a lot of those teams we have left to play have nothing to play for while we still do 

That's generally what decides it. Last 4 games of the season you could be against shit teams giving their all or midtable teams nothing to play for.

 

Annoying for us our last game of the season is Toneys last game for Brentford at their place.

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2 minutes ago, TRC said:

That's generally what decides it. Last 4 games of the season you could be against shit teams giving their all or midtable teams nothing to play for.

 

Annoying for us our last game of the season is Toneys last game for Brentford at their place.

I think that's a good thing as they will almost certainly have nothing to play for and Toney won't want to get injured before his big move.

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1 minute ago, Beth said:

I think that's a good thing as they will almost certainly have nothing to play for and Toney won't want to get injured before his big move.

I guess you can put it that way.

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32 minutes ago, TRC said:

That's generally what decides it. Last 4 games of the season you could be against shit teams giving their all or midtable teams nothing to play for.

 

Annoying for us our last game of the season is Toneys last game for Brentford at their place.

I don’t think there are shit teams this season, except for Burnley and Sheffield. 

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1 minute ago, Solitude20 said:

I don’t think there are shit teams this season, except for Burnley and Sheffield. 

Everton, Forest, Palace and Luton are probably going to have to go for it the last 5 games or so.

 

Depending on points deductions I have Palace going down, Forest if they get deducted more than 5 points.

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At the end of the season you want to face the teams right down there.  They are right down there because they’re shit. 
 

Some mid table teams hit the beach and fall off. But most seem to relish the lack of pressure. Players playing for moves. Play for spots at the euros. 
 

I remember we went to Burnley in the last game of the season.  They needed to win to stay up.  Smashed them.  

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Manchester United really are something.

 

Last season they conceded 43 goals with an xGA of 50.29, but they only scored 58 goals with an xG of 71.9. They exceeded their xPTS by over 8, finishing 3rd with 75 points despite having the 6th best GD in the league. 

 

This season they are exceeding their xPTS by 11.76 with a GD of 0 and almost +10 xGA vs. actual goals against. They should probably be down around 9th or 10th.

 

Across more than 1.5 seasons they have conceded 76 goals with an xGA of 93.27, an overperformance of 17 goals. Only Fulham are higher. If they had prime Schmeichel I might accept it.

 

Now with Ratcliffe and the emergence of young players like Hojlund, Garnacho, and Mainoo it feels like brighter days are probably ahead with lady luck carrying them through what could have been a far worse period. So frustrating.

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On 12/02/2024 at 17:22, The College Dropout said:

That Villa collapse might actually happen.

 

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With the wind in our sails me thinks 5th is still a possibility 

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2 minutes ago, Tiresias said:

If joelinton wasn't injured I'd be more positive but we're not resilient enough imo

Agreed. If we had 1 of Willock, Tonali or Joelinton + Pope available I would be more optimistic. As it stands we lack the running power this system needs to stop conceding chances.

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55 minutes ago, The College Dropout said:

Agreed. If we had 1 of Willock, Tonali or Joelinton + Pope available I would be more optimistic. As it stands we lack the running power this system needs to stop conceding chances.

Even with Anderson, we just need the ability to bring on a CM after 60 minutes to give one of them a break and add some fresh legs. Hopefully we have Willock and Anderson back in the next few weeks. The Pope situation is bigger for me, it’s clear we need a new goalie in the summer to replace Dubs that plays in our preferred system.

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