Colos Short and Curlies Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 I suppose today has technically gone better than expected with ManU losing and Brighton dropping points at home Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coffee_Johnny Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 As the dust settles on yesterday’s humiliating defeat/reality check, we are sitting in 8th place, 7 points behind Man Utd in 6th, and at risk of both West Ham and Chelsea (who each have a game in hand) overtaking us. However, taking into account the relative difficulty of games across the season, we are only 4.4 points away from the points we may have expected to accumulate to be on track for a sixth place finish (using PL points for sixth in an average season). There are 36 points available. If we continue at the same Points Per Game as the last 26 games (1.31 PPG), we would end-up with around 53 points. In order to hit the 62 points usually enough for 6th, we would need 25 points from 12 games; so 2.08 PPG. If that sounds completely unachievable, then it is worth remembering that our PPG for the last 12 games of 2022 was 2.33 (won 8 and drew 4). Last 12 of 2022/23 season was 2.0 PPG (W7 D3 L 2). Not directly comparable, but it at least shows that under Howe, with a lesser squad if we get players back now, we have had runs which could realistically give us a 2.08 PPG return or better for the remaining games of this season. These consist of only one ‘Tier 1’ team (Man Utd away), four Tier 2 teams (Chelsea and Brentford away; Spurs and Brighton at home). Four Tier 3 teams (Palace and Fulham away; Wolves and West Ham at home). Three Tier 4 teams (Burnley away; Everton and Sheffield Utd at home). I think we can get 25 points or better from those 12 games. So I’m not giving up on some kind of European involvement next year, at least not just yet. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colos Short and Curlies Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 I reckon 21 points from those Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
midds Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 We still have all of the clubs around us to play yet, nothing has been decided yet. If we get players back and if we play well then 7th, maybe even 6th at a real push is possible. Not sure why anyone is even considering chucking the towel in and accepting a bottom half position, it's in our hands where we finish Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRC Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Mitoma out for the season, that has to give us the edge over Brighton now who are killed with injuries. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SUPERTOON Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 2 minutes ago, TRC said: Mitoma out for the season, that has to give us the edge over Brighton now who are killed with injuries. We have to see a massive improvement defensively before we even think about pushing for Europe imo. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRC Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 3 minutes ago, SUPERTOON said: We have to see a massive improvement defensively before we even think about pushing for Europe imo. Every remaining game we have is winnable, I dont really see any reason why it should be not be realistic to get 7th. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SUPERTOON Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 6 minutes ago, TRC said: Every remaining game we have is winnable, I dont really see any reason why it should be not be realistic to get 7th. We have had Luton and Bournemouth at home recently and were lucky to get a point in each whilst conceding 6 goals. Unless we sort that out we won’t get Europe imo. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRC Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Just now, SUPERTOON said: We have had Luton and Bournemouth at home recently and were lucky to get a point in each whilst conceding 6 goals. Unless we sort that out we won’t get Europe imo. I agree, but I also think its unacceptable to not get 60+ points based on the run in, Brighton being decimated and having Europe, as do West Ham. Being extremely conservative we get 16 points from the run in, which puts us at 53. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
timeEd32 Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 It's impossible me for to gauge what's realistic or acceptable because until it happens I'm having trouble assuming we'll have Isak, Willock, and whomever else for the rest of the season. If that happens and we get Pope back for the last couple months I'd be very confident in finishing 7th. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beth Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 I think to get 7th we are looking at needing 7 wins and a couple of draws from the last 12 games. All the home games are winable on paper, and the fact we have 3 of the 4 teams fighting it out for 7th to play at home is a positive. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TBG Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 (edited) That's brought us within 2 points of a European spot, or 20 points clear of relegation depending on how you see Hall not playing Edited March 2 by TBG Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
astraguy Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 11 games to go,33 more points 5 home games 6 away. What do we need for for top 7? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr.Spaceman Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 8 wins Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
STM Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 30th of March is a cup final. Beat West Ham at home and you'd have to fancy us to nab 7th. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Menace Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 (edited) If Howe manages to get top 6/7 with the season we've had - its a massive achievement in all honesty. I expected us to get top 6 beginning of the season without the nonsense thats happened to us throughout - top 4 wasn't realistic considering Liverpool rebuilt, Villa are far stronger than last year, as well as Ange making Spurs a serious team again. Edited March 3 by Menace Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
STM Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 We will see how good Spurs are with CL footy next year and a loaded schedule. Next year will be carnage.... the expectations of Arsenal, Man United, Villa and Spurs will be through the roof and Liverpool will have a new manager. Something will have to give. Of course, we will have our own expectations, we need to keep our heads down and allow others to cut each others throats. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Menace Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 I still think we're quite short of challenging top 4 unless we have an incredible summer - but if we keep building on a top 6 achievement/target I'm happy with that. Last seasons achievement has made some of our fans think we should be challenging top 4 when IMO we're quite a bit off that. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
STM Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 Just now, Menace said: I still think we're quite short of challenging top 4 unless we have an incredible summer - but if we keep building on a top 6 achievement/target I'm happy with that. Last seasons achievement has made some of our fans think we should be challenging top 4 when IMO we're quite a bit off that. There ain't much between us Spurs and Villa IMO. Villa have slightly more consistent depth and Spurs have some real experience in Son, coupled with Maddisons quality but we have our own qualities. Give us Alex Isak for 75% of our games and let's see how we do. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Menace Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 (edited) Thats a big ask tbf Watkins never seems to get injured for Villa, I'm sure Spurs will sign a striker this summer too. Edited March 3 by Menace Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
STM Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 Without our injuries, we'd be finishing 6th at least this year. We are only 4 points off Man United as it stands. We need a good summer. 3 quality signings in the Isak/Bruno/Botman bracket, half the injuries of this year, and the Italian Stallion back and we will be fine for top 6 next year. Joelinton signing a contract needs to be job one on the agenda. Where would we finish in the league if we had the big fella available for the remaining games. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 Top 7 and two Quarter Finals with the injuries we've had would be a very good outcome. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
STM Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 1 minute ago, Menace said: Thats a big ask tbf Watkins never seems to get injured for Villa, I'm sure Spurs will sign a striker this summer too. Alternatively, let's get a half decent deputy who has a good fitness record. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coffee_Johnny Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 (edited) For what it is worth, I think that, after close statistic analysis of the relative wage ratio of ourselves Villa, Spurs, West Ham and Manure (… not really) that we will show relatively great form for the remainder of the season and likely pick-up 22 points from the available 33. This, 62 points, should be enough for sixth in an average season. However, we would be depending on others having less good form. That said most don’t need to fall of a cliff form wise. For example if West Ham continue their 1.56 points per game (ppg) until the end of the season, they will finish on 59 points. The issue that makes me think 7th might the best we can do, is that Manure need to do significantly worse than their current 1.69 ppg; 1.42 ppg would return them a total 61 points. I don’t see them deteriorating that much. So, in order to have a realistic chance of sixth we will probably need 2.2 ppg or better, at least another 24 points from 11 games. Not impossible, we’ve had periods like that before (8 wins from 11), but unlikely. It will be important not to lose to them at Old Trafford, and to win our home games against West Ham and Brighton. Edited March 3 by Coffee_Johnny Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Displayname Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 1 hour ago, Coffee_Johnny said: For what it is worth, I think that, after close statistic analysis of the relative wage ratio of ourselves Villa, Spurs, West Ham and Manure (… not really) that we will show relatively great form for the remainder of the season and likely pick-up 22 points from the available 33. This, 62 points, should be enough for sixth in an average season. However, we would be depending on others having less good form. That said most don’t need to fall of a cliff form wise. For example if West Ham continue their 1.56 points per game (ppg) until the end of the season, they will finish on 59 points. The issue that makes me think 7th might the best we can do, is that Manure need to do significantly worse than their current 1.69 ppg; 1.42 ppg would return them a total 61 points. I don’t see them deteriorating that much. So, in order to have a realistic chance of sixth we will probably need 2.2 ppg or better, at least another 24 points from 11 games. Not impossible, we’ve had periods like that before (8 wins from 11), but unlikely. It will be important not to lose to them at Old Trafford, and to win our home games against West Ham and Brighton. Would have looked better if you had done the math after Manu loses to City today Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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