The Europeometer™ (2024/25)

[TRon]

21 hours ago, timeEd32 said:

I think the easiest way to come to terms with that is it’s true for a lot of teams. Look at what Chelsea just threw away against Fulham.

 

I think it helps that we seem to have finally clicked on our shape and the players look a lot more confident in what they are doing. There's been a real zip and intensity about our game since the Brentford loss. We look like we could get CL on this form, but I won't get too carried away while we are relying too heavily on Isak staying fit.

[STM]

66 points is average for 5th over the last 5 seasons.

 

66 points over 38 games averages as 1.73 PPG.

 

We are currently sitting at 1.61 PPG.

 

You could look at that and say that we are performing below the required level, or you could look at it and say, given our inconsistency, it's a miracle that we are so close to the target.

 

Personally, and this is just my opinion, if we continue to perform at this level we will absolutely smash that target. The level we have played at in the last 4 (including the cup) games is easily top 4 material IMO.

 

Ok, so we played 3 lower end sides but we didn't just beat them, we actually brushed them aside, which is what top 4/5 sides have to do.

 

I think what will make or break this challenge is:

 

a) how we perform in our tough away games: Liverpool, Man Utd, City, Spurs, Villa and Arsenal.

 

b) when we do drop points, how we respond to it. For example, if we go to Arsenal and get beat, there's no shame, we just need to get back up and go again.

 

c) injuries. So far this season we've done well injuries wise, how do we cope of we miss Isak for a month or Tonali and so on. Botman (and Lascelles) returning and dare I say Wilson at the back end of the season, could be crucial.

 

 

[Superior Acuña]

We’ve got to be looking at 5th. I expect Man City’s quality to return eventually (!) and then come above us…probably . But we should really be catching Forest eventually and staying above Villa, Spurs, ManU with the seasons they’re having and extra load on Villa. 

[Yorkie]

Still hoping for a Europa adventure. Especially now the CL losers don't enter. 

[Geordie Ahmed]

50 minutes ago, Superior Acuña said:

We’ve got to be looking at 5th. I expect Man City’s quality to return eventually (!) and then come above us…probably . But we should really be catching Forest eventually and staying above Villa, Spurs, ManU with the seasons they’re having and extra load on Villa. 

 

I'm actually very confident we finish above Man City

 

They aren't the team that's capable of putting a 10+ winning run together, the players are devoid of confidence and they've lost that aura, teams play them without fear

 

There's only 3 teams I'm certain finish above us (Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea), no reason we can't finish above the rest

 

Though the next two games will be a strong indicator of how likely 4th can be

[Joe1984]

11 hours ago, STM said:

66 points is average for 5th over the last 5 seasons.

 

66 points over 38 games averages as 1.73 PPG.

 

We are currently sitting at 1.61 PPG.

 

You could look at that and say that we are performing below the required level, or you could look at it and say, given our inconsistency, it's a miracle that we are so close to the target.

 

Personally, and this is just my opinion, if we continue to perform at this level we will absolutely smash that target. The level we have played at in the last 4 (including the cup) games is easily top 4 material IMO.

 

Ok, so we played 3 lower end sides but we didn't just beat them, we actually brushed them aside, which is what top 4/5 sides have to do.

 

I think what will make or break this challenge is:

 

a) how we perform in our tough away games: Liverpool, Man Utd, City, Spurs, Villa and Arsenal.

 

b) when we do drop points, how we respond to it. For example, if we go to Arsenal and get beat, there's no shame, we just need to get back up and go again.

 

c) injuries. So far this season we've done well injuries wise, how do we cope of we miss Isak for a month or Tonali and so on. Botman (and Lascelles) returning and dare I say Wilson at the back end of the season, could be crucial.

 

 

I wouldn't bet on Wilson playing for us again...

[Stottie]

Goal difference and xG don't like Forest. Their record in the last six is P6 W5 D0 L1 F9 A6  15 Pts GD*3 xG7.77 xGA7.35

Five wins from such tight margins is likely unsustainable

 

He might have got the eyes, but Forster almost dives out of the way for Elanga goal that beat Spurs.

[Nucasol]

35 minutes ago, Stottie said:

Goal difference and xG don't like Forest. Their record in the last six is P6 W5 D0 L1 F9 A6  15 Pts GD*3 xG7.77 xGA7.35

Five wins from such tight margins is likely unsustainable

 

He might have got the eyes, but Forster almost dives out of the way for Elanga goal that beat Spurs.

Really interesting one from Stuart Pearce on TalkSport - in the top half of the table, your goals scored will roughly be the points you’ll end up with.
 

Of the 10 teams in the top half of the PL, 9 are within three of the points/goals aligning. The only team who isn’t? Forest. 34 points off 24 goals.

 

The bottom half skews this a little but 6 are within 5 points. Your big outliers are Spurs, Wolves, Leicester and Brentford (16, 14, 8 and 8 divergence).

 

[Stottie]

It is possible to win lots of tight games by completely shutting things down once ahead. You can also do it with an exceptional keeper.

 

Forest have scored first in 14 (!) out of 18 games, easily the best in the league. Their xG if you limit it to when the scores are level is really good. We've have a higher points per game when scoring first, but have only done it in 8 out of 18 games.

[WilliamPS]

This season will be odd as the home games in the second half of the season will be much easier, given already had Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham, Villa and Brighton.

 

Basically play the the bottom half plus Chelsea and Forest at home now. This should mean great home form and a lot of points banked.
 

The flip side is the away games are really tough - so starting with Man Utd and Spurs away its critical the away form improves. Without getting results away at some (not all!) of Spurs, Villa, Brighton, Man Utd, Man City, Liverpool and Arsenal there’s no chance of fourth.

[Wallsendmag]

All rests on Isak staying fit. He gets injured for any length of time and I think we'll drop off again. Could see us getting 4th/5th if he stays fit though the way we're currently playing, especially with Botman back soon (nothing against Burn who's been outstanding lately).

 

Think the current top 3 is sorted, and probably in the order it's in right now as well, but 4th place is definitely up for grabs.

[Rafalove]

21 minutes ago, Wallsendmag said:

All rests on Isak staying fit. He gets injured for any length of time and I think we'll drop off again. Could see us getting 4th/5th if he stays fit though the way we're currently playing, especially with Botman back soon (nothing against Burn who's been outstanding lately).

 

Think the current top 3 is sorted, and probably in the order it's in right now as well, but 4th place is definitely up for grabs.

 

 

This is largely true. Really think Eddie should be careful with how he handles him. Think he should come off fairly early in games where we’re comfortable.

[Wallsendmag]

21 minutes ago, Rafalove said:

 

 

This is largely true. Really think Eddie should be careful with how he handles him. Think he should come off fairly early in games where we’re comfortable.

 

Agree, and I know Howe takes the cups very seriously, which I love after all those years of throwing them under Ashley, but I wouldn't expect him to feature v Bromley either. Give Osula a run out for that one.

[Maggies]

Never quite works this way, but I think us getting 12 to 15 more away points this season will get us top 5.

 

Our home fixtures will get us the remaining 20 to 25 points.

[Holloway]

I'd like to see how Chelsea go if they lose Palmer for a significant period

[Stifler]

Teams who play a higher press like us typically see a better 2nd half of the season than the first half.

[Stottie]

If there is money for one only and the idea is RW, do we buy one who can play centrally or rely on Gordon? In Barnes, and the Joes will are loaded with depth at LW if Gordon goes central.

[Roids]

with no Europe we had an opportunity to finish as high as 3rd (with some hindsight of the inconsistency of everyone outside pool).

 

Still not sure what our real level is, the result at Old Trafford will say a lot , win and Top 4 is doable, anything else and we're still in that 5 -11 purgatory

[black_n_white]

Just now, Roids said:

with no Europe we had an opportunity to finish as high as 3rd (with some hindsight of the inconsistency of everyone outside pool).

 

Still not sure what our real level is, the result at Old Trafford will say a lot , win and Top 4 is doable, anything else and we're still in that 5 -11 purgatory

I think the next two fixtures will tell us everything we need to know about how serious this team is for top 6.

[Ronson333]

 

[Kanj]

Forest +1 GD lol

[Mazzy]

Just looking at those table makes me think one thing...

 

That fucking West Ham game man.

 

[jack j]

1 hour ago, Mazzy said:

Just looking at those table makes me think one thing...

 

That fucking West Ham game man.

 

The 2 points dropped in the 95th minute v palace as well (eventhough we were shite)

[Elma]

20 hours ago, Maggies said:

Never quite works this way, but I think us getting 12 to 15 more away points this season will get us top 5.

 

Our home fixtures will get us the remaining 20 to 25 points.

 

Agreed - the next two games are huge. All on paper and as you say it never works that way, but using a target of 70 points, and assuming we can go something like 7-2-1 for 23 points from our easier home games, we would need 18 points from our 10 remaining away games, i.e. 1.8 points/game.

 

With the tough nature of those games that's a stretch. We'd be looking at something like 10 points from Leicester, Soton, West Ham and Brighton away.

 

The closer we can get to 6 points from the next 2 games reduces the need to take many points away at Liverpool, Arsenal, Man City and Villa.

 

Additionally, it would keep our run going ahead of 4 quite winnable games (3 at home), whilst simultaneously putting a large gap between us and two of our perceived European rivals, both of whom aren't in the best of form and have European campaigns to handle in the new year.

[timeEd32]

I keep assuming Forest will fall away and I still think they won’t sustain this but they are building quite the cushion. 13 points clear of Spurs and 6-7 points from 6th pending tomorrow’s results.

 

Liverpool, Brighton, City, Arsenal, Man United, and Chelsea all at home too.