The Europeometer™ (2024/25)

[Vaj]

All teams are massively inconsistent so we need to stop panicking when we have a blip.

 

- Forest are starting to struggle and have a tricky run coming up

- Man City have been up and down all season, without CL you would fancy them to get top 5 but even they aren't great.

- Bournemouth just lost at home to Wolves, yes they have had some great results against the big teams but they seem to struggle at times to break down some of the weaker teams and now that there run is over, we will see how they will react.

- Chelsea are in freefall at the moment without a proper striker in the side and two of the worst goalkeepers in the league.

- Villa still look pretty average most times they play, they have CL games to worry about again and three tricky away games back to back (Palace, Brentford and Brighton). If they get a decent points haul from those games I would start to worry, but again they are so inconsistent.

 

So basically we need to stop losing our minds every time we lose a game we shouldn't because everyone is doing the same. Realistically Liverpool, Arsenal and Man City should get CL, but with two other places up for grabs we still have a great chance! 

[t00nt00n313]

Assuming 5th place is CL this year (I'm not entirely sure how likely this is at the moment, as I'll be honest I don't quite understand how that stuff works), I think we have a fair chance even with our recent disappointment in form. 

 

I think we will lose to L pool, and I personally think we will lose to Arsenal away as well as I think they will be out for blood this time. With that said, I think we need the following to secure 5th place:

 

Get 2 wins out of Vila away, Everton at home, West ham away, and Brighton away. None of those will be easy games though, we struggle against Brighton and West ham home or away, we struggle to Villa away (thrash them at home but this is away), and we just have weird luck against Everton. Still I think winning half of these and losing the other half is doable. 

 

Get draws from Chelsea at home, and Manu at home. Some will say that we can easily win at least one of these (probs man u), and maybe they are right but I still think these will be tough games and if we get a win from either of these then all the better.

 

Beat Leicester away, Palace at home, Ipswich at home, and Brentford at home. All games we should in theory be able to win.

 

That would have us ending the league on 64 points which I think will be enough for 5th this season. It would have gotten us 5th last season, and is around double the number of points that got us 5th at the end of the first half of the season. 

 

 

[Crimson Cardigan]

3 minutes ago, t00nt00n313 said:

Assuming 5th place is CL this year (I'm not entirely sure how likely this is at the moment, as I'll be honest I don't quite understand how that stuff works), I think we have a fair chance even with our recent disappointment in form. 

 

I think we will lose to L pool, and I personally think we will lose to Arsenal away as well as I think they will be out for blood this time. With that said, I think we need the following to secure 5th place:

 

Get 2 wins out of Vila away, Everton at home, West ham away, and Brighton away. None of those will be easy games though, we struggle against Brighton and West ham home or away, we struggle to Villa away (thrash them at home but this is away), and we just have weird luck against Everton. Still I think winning half of these and losing the other half is doable. 

 

Get draws from Chelsea at home, and Manu at home. Some will say that we can easily win at least one of these (probs man u), and maybe they are right but I still think these will be tough games and if we get a win from either of these then all the better.

 

Beat Leicester away, Palace at home, Ipswich at home, and Brentford at home. All games we should in theory be able to win.

 

That would have us ending the league on 64 points which I think will be enough for 5th this season. It would have gotten us 5th last season, and is around double the number of points that got us 5th at the end of the first half of the season. 

 

 

Arsenal have been “out for blood” against us virtually every time since we stopped them getting champions league a few seasons back. Hasn’t done them much good so far.

[Nobody]

Pretty wild we've just got one league game in March

[Sibierski]

5 hours ago, Vaj said:

 

 

So basically we need to stop losing our minds every time we lose a game we shouldn't because everyone is doing the same. Realistically Liverpool, Arsenal and Man City should get CL, but with two other places up for grabs we still have a great chance! 

 

Agree overall, but because teams are constantly slipping up doesn't mean we can keep afford to doing it. We've had enough chances to open up a small gap where we can breath a bit GW to GW, but instead are still in a situation where we can be 5th one week, then looking over our shoulders at 10th the next. Only ourselves to blame if we fall short again because we've kept other sides involved to the end.

[The College Dropout]

21 hours ago, Matt1892 said:

Must win is an overused statement but if we had lost today then I don’t think we would have caught Forest, so the result was what mattered.

 

If 5th is going to get Champions League and Man Utd and Spurs have imploded, then there is no better opportunity to qualify, we just need some consistency to be the best of a pretty average bunch.

 

Such a strange season.

It was must win and we did it. 
 

It’s a tight pack. 5th likely to be CL. If any of the pack can go on a good run for 5-6 games and not fall to bits otherwise, it’s Europa league minimum.  
 

This iteration of the Europa league is brilliant without the CL dropouts. I feel like CL dropouts won the Europa League or at least got to the final, more seasons than not.  That was shit.  
 

I reckon 5th only needs 66 points or so. 63 should secure 6th and Europa spot.  

[SteV]

Just to clarify, it would take a fairly ridiculous set of results from here on in for England NOT to get one of the extra CL places.

[The College Dropout]

Think Villa are going to be brilliant next season and qualify for the CL.  With all that revenue they will get from the CL and Duran sale.  I hope they have Conference league or no European football along with it.  They’ll build a proper squad to challenge on all fronts and entrench themselves.  

[Chicken Dancer]

Our away games worry me. Last 3 away are Villa, Brighton & Arsenal. 

 

We genuinely should be winning all of our home games left in the league, but well aware that we will probably have at least one slip in there. Hopefully we make up for it with a win at one of the 3 mentioned.

 

Yesterday really was a huge win. Fully expecting our annual defeat at Anfield on Wednesday, so beating West Ham the Monday before the final would be a nice way to go into the game.

[RodneyCisse]

1 minute ago, Chicken Dancer said:

Our away games worry me. Last 3 away are Villa, Brighton & Arsenal. 

 

We genuinely should be winning all of our home games left in the league, but well aware that we will probably have at least one slip in there. Hopefully we make up for it with a win at one of the 3 mentioned.

 

Yesterday really was a huge win. Fully expecting our annual defeat at Anfield on Wednesday, so beating West Ham the Monday before the final would be a nice way to go into the game.

If we have those last 3 with it all on the line I’d feel more confident than if we were home and dry (would be lovely) - the likes of Gordon, Isak with a sniff of a win and getting champions league will be unplayable.

[Chicken Dancer]

8 minutes ago, RodneyCisse said:

If we have those last 3 with it all on the line I’d feel more confident than if we were home and dry (would be lovely) - the likes of Gordon, Isak with a sniff of a win and getting champions league will be unplayable.

 

I hope so! It should be mentioned too that those 3 games are sandwiched between Ipswich, Chelsea & Everton at home. Hopefully Arsenal away is moved as we are in the FA Cup final that weekend.

[Sibierski]

1 hour ago, The College Dropout said:

Think Villa are going to be brilliant next season and qualify for the CL.  With all that revenue they will get from the CL and Duran sale.  I hope they have Conference league or no European football along with it.  They’ll build a proper squad to challenge on all fronts and entrench themselves.  

They’re operating at a very high wage to turnover ratio, where even with UCL money and Duran sale, they’re going to be limited (especially if they were to make Asensio and/or Rashford permanent deals).

 

Probably could see them moving on someone for big money to allow Monchi another wild spend.

[SteV]

21 minutes ago, Sibierski said:

They’re operating at a very high wage to turnover ratio, where even with UCL money and Duran sale, they’re going to be limited (especially if they were to make Asensio and/or Rashford permanent deals).

 

Probably could see them moving on someone for big money to allow Monchi another wild spend.

They’ll probably peddle Ramsey in that instance with him being ‘pua profit’.

[samptime29]

We have won 13 from last 16. We can cause any team massive problems. We can score quickly. But we are inconsistent. Was disappointed with 2nd half yesterday.

 

Vital period now with Liverpool, Brighton, West Ham, Liverpool. Hopefully Wilson can nibble a few goals. Feel like we need a few important sub goals from him in big games.

 

 

Edited February 24 by samptime29

[80]

6 hours ago, Chicken Dancer said:

Our away games worry me. Last 3 away are Villa, Brighton & Arsenal. 

6 points and a loss at Brighton, then.

[sushimonster85]

6 hours ago, SteV said:

Just to clarify, it would take a fairly ridiculous set of results from here on in for England NOT to get one of the extra CL places.

 

Yep, and assuming the winners of the FA Cup and League Cup (please god) qualify for a higher form of European football, there's every chance that the European spots could go all the way down to 9th. Which is daft, but would make it very hard for us not to qualify one way or another for Europe. 

[The College Dropout]

5 hours ago, Sibierski said:

They’re operating at a very high wage to turnover ratio, where even with UCL money and Duran sale, they’re going to be limited (especially if they were to make Asensio and/or Rashford permanent deals).

 

Probably could see them moving on someone for big money to allow Monchi another wild spend.

Think that’s coming down. Diaby, Carlos and other sales would be on big wages. 
 

And the revenue will take a massive increase. 
 

They won’t make both of those sales permanent. 
 

Duran and CL is £100m+.  They can spend in the summer no doubt. No need to sell. 

[Mazzy]

It's going to go down to the last couple of games and unfortunately for us our last 3 our all extremely tricky. 

 

I think we'll just about manage 5th, maybe by a point or so.

 

I can't see there being much between 3rd place and say 7th place come the end of the season. All games are must wins now pretty much. Our game against Chelsea in May will be massive though.

 

Liverpool

Arsenal 

Man City

Forrest

Newcastle

Chelsea

Villa

[geordiekris]

6 hours ago, Mazzy said:

It's going to go down to the last couple of games and unfortunately for us our last 3 our all extremely tricky. 

 

I think we'll just about manage 5th, maybe by a point or so.

 

I can't see there being much between 3rd place and say 7th place come the end of the season. All games are must wins now pretty much. Our game against Chelsea in May will be massive though.

 

Liverpool

Arsenal 

Man City

Forrest

Newcastle

Chelsea

Villa

Which is frustrating as we ideally want to be playing Chelsea, Arsenal and Man U now when they're out of form. 
 

Think we'd win quite comfortably at the emirates again against an Arsenal without Saka, no recognised striker and Odegaard out of form. 

[SteV]

If we make the FA Cup semi then our home game against Ipswich would be moved, so that would likely be one of our last games.

[Matt1892]

 

Nobody from 3rd to 10th is in decent form on paper, a couple of wins on the bounce could see any of that lot take up a strong position for Europe.

[Shak]

2 hours ago, geordiekris said:

Which is frustrating as we ideally want to be playing Chelsea, Arsenal and Man U now when they're out of form. 
 

Think we'd win quite comfortably at the emirates again against an Arsenal without Saka, no recognised striker and Odegaard out of form. 

 

There's a pretty decent chance that the game will be meaningless for Arsenal, you'd imagine.

[Sibierski]

19 hours ago, The College Dropout said:

Think that’s coming down. Diaby, Carlos and other sales would be on big wages. 
 

And the revenue will take a massive increase. 
 

They won’t make both of those sales permanent. 
 

Duran and CL is £100m+.  They can spend in the summer no doubt. No need to sell. 

Probably come down a fraction, but still not near enough. Why they’ve been most desperate to get rules relaxed because there’s such little head room for them.

 

Duran is to balance out some of their recent spending. UCL run will enable some spending, but they won’t have the big spaces people think, unless they move someone on who generates that, I.e Watkins or to a lesser extent, Ramsey.

[The College Dropout]

I don’t think Villa would leave themselves in a £100m+ PSR hole.  

[Colos Short and Curlies]

Doesn't the Grealish sale summer drop out of the PSR window this year. They've done some decent business in selling since then but that's still a hell of an adjustment on the calcs